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PrinceFrederickWx

April 7-8 snow event

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ugh that's it. We're down to the SREF!  We're passing the last exit before the cliff. Giddy up. 

3 inches from the srefs is nothing. Ussually we need it to show atleast 10 then maybe we have a chance...lol

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z yesterday started the falling apart. 18z today starts the return. 

exactly...the north trend/juice still start in earnest tonight at 00z

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

exactly...the north trend/juice still start in earnest tonight at 00z

3k looks more juiced.  Through 31

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Congrats E33 and E44. Honorable mention E40.

wow.....you never see this stuff in the inflated Euro stats

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Just now, Ji said:

wow.....you never see this stuff in the inflated Euro stats

How about this? Pretty horrendous

 

*THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM*

eps_snow_c_washdc_8.png.d2344656e3f9bfc2da23aa6d026b8575.png

*THIS IS NOT FOR THIS STORM*

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

That looks like quite a few Ensemble members want to keep us on the edge of the cliff.  

That's old sadly. Took me a glance or two to realize it

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

wow.....you never see this stuff in the inflated Euro stats

It's a numbers game.   2/52 times this is going to happen.

4/52 times well get an e35, e46,e15,49 combo.

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This pretty much sums it up(the lameness) from the Mount Holly AFD-

The big question becomes how much snow actually accumulates. Many factors come into play at this time. We are getting late in the season, so the sun angle is getting higher. Most of any snow would fall during the daytime, which would coincide with warmer surface temperatures. Also, any rainfall from overnight would likely suppress significant accumulations. All of this is mainly dependent on snowfall rates, which are not expected to be significant at this time. With all this said, we are generally expecting around an inch or less, mainly across the I-95 corridor southward. If any of the above factors shift in the other direction, especially snowfall rates, totals could go up.

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The NAMs were not an improvement and were a trend the wrong way. Yes they look north if you just look at the colors on the precip type map. But the precip is all just from an anafront setup early Saturday morning. That's not even the storm we were tracking it's just the cold front ahead of the storm. There is no upside beyond snow tv with that. The actual storm is completely squashed to nothing. To the point it leaves enough energy to even try to develop something south of us and hit NC and southern VA Sunday.  The 18z nam was worse and continued the wrong trend with the threat of a significant wave Saturday. If you will be happy with some snow tv with the front then yay it's a good run. 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAMs were not an improvement and were a trend the wrong way. Yes they look north if you just look at the colors on the precip type map. But the precip is all just from an anafront setup early Saturday morning. That's not even the storm we were tracking it's just the cold front ahead of the storm. There is no upside beyond snow tv with that. The actual storm is completely squashed to nothing. To the point it leaves enough energy to even try to develop something south of us and hit NC and southern VA Sunday.  The 18z nam was worse and continued the wrong trend with the threat of a significant wave Saturday. If you will be happy with some snow tv with the front then yay it's a good run. 

I think from here on...whenever we have a La Niña winter, I'm just gonna assume this result until it's actually snowing. How many times have we used the word "squashed" this winter? This winter has been a painful lesson of how bad La Niñas can be (yet total-wise, will go down as average). I can't stand squash the vegetable...and I can't stand the squash of La Niña either...they both taste disgusting, lol

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18z ICON got a little better.  It doesn't really get going until 18z on Saturday, so we're still 48 hours out.  I think DC still has a good chance at some accumulations, but the chance of a signficant storm for northern MD is small.

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The show continues on the GFS. you can clearly see it's southwest with the low again at 54 hrs.

 

Pretty soon there will be a 2nd shot Saturday night for SE sections. See P005 on the 12z Gefs.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Oh well. Maybe next winter.

I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year?  "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year.  This wasn't like last winter.  There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. 

I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm disappointed in this winter like everyone else. It kinda sucked the way it underperformed potential and how everyone around us got more so I do get that. But why do people keep saying that like it didn't snow this year?  "Most" in here made it close to median snowfall this year.  This wasn't like last winter.  There is actually a 40-50% chance we get less snow next year depending where you are in here statistically. 

I said most so those in the nw VA hole save the protestations. 

I said it simply because I don’t see any more snow chances this season, and this Saturday event will turn out to be lame. So our next real shot will be next season.

As far as the season overall, it wasn’t too bad in my area or yours, but many people south of us didn’t get a single warning criteria event or just barely did, so I can see why they have a very low opinion of this past winter, not to mention the other things you mentioned. It’s easy to be more level headed if you’ve seen a 17” storm in late March and can reasonably expect a double digit storm every other year, but that’s not the case for most of the forum.

It’s been a frustrating past few years for a lot of people. Some handle it better than others. But yes, this was a much better season than last year, which was completely atrocious.

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