Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

[Ginx snewx]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, Collinsville said:

This was the June 5-7, 2000 event. I had 53-45 on the 6th with over 2" of rain. July 2001 was a cool but dry month, probably one of the best July's ever if you don't like humidity.

You know what... I think you're right now that you've said this - sort of rings a bell... I think it was the summer of 2000 that was uniquely bad... 2001 may not have been so bad.

In any case, I suspect the June 5-7 event you cited from the previous year is actually the one I had in mind.  And, it was like the head-water event for a endless river of clammy summer days... just god-awful.   It's rank-able in badness ... but May 2005 is still the Tambora measuring stick -

[weathafella]

Ok Kevin there’s hope.   I just woke from a dream where it was 97 at BOS.  I then checked my between hour obs on the my phone and it reported 79 with a cbreeze.  On the obs the word “disappointed” was in red.  I drove out there to prove it was an error which it was.  Summer’s coming.

[alex]

12 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

That's not super common. Quick sort through our nearby(ish) coop data and Gorham almost pulled it off in 2015 (43 in August). Bethlehem did in 2001.

Find a station like Lancaster with a longer POR, and you can find 1957, 1960, 1975-1978, 1981-1983, 1985-1987, 1992. But that's also a bit north of you, but seems to match the frequency of a place like Pinkham Notch.

One thing that makes it hard to tell, too, is how localized these microclimates are. My house is a ridiculously cold spot by Bretton Woods standards - probably due to its proximity to the river, the lack of pretty much anything around us (it's all National Forest) and who knows what else... but I'm usually chillier during good rad cooling nights than the other PWSs nearby, even though they line up quite well during storms; also shown by the fact that we tend to keep the snowpack much longer than the rest of the valley and I've seen times when it was raining at the hotel, and sleeting here, just 2 miles away. It's fascinating. 

Turns out I have SOME records from the previous summer (I installed the PWS in July 2016); the lowest between July 15 and the end of July was 40.5 - so, assuming the first half of the month did not hit the 30's, that month would not have made it. August did with 36.9... but that doesn't seem unusual. That's when we usually get our first frost. 

[powderfreak]

13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Real men grill in winter.

Although to be honest late Feb was the best grilling weather of the season so far. 

Yeah crazy that Tuesday may be BTV's first 60-degree day since February 21st when it hit 69F.  

Who knew it would be two full months before another 60-degree reading after the Feb torch.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah crazy that Tuesday may be BTV's first 60-degree day since February 21st when it hit 69F.  

Who knew it would be two full months before another 60-degree reading after the Feb torch.

I'll take this opportunity to admit - at least for me - that there was some omens in there back then.  They didn't portend too well for "the rest of the spring" - to which I quote because at the time, mid February ?  Hard for sane man  to call what took place (it was 83 down our way at enough back-yard weather stations to argue legitimacy) as spring, per se.  So what was it ?  Such massive anomalies did two things for me...

1 ... made me wonder what happens if/when things reload;  recall... it was about a week past the phenomenal anomaly's end that the models/ensembles began sniffing out a phenomenon that (as far as I recall) had not happened in a decade, and that is/was a bona fide west -based NAO (import distinction for ramifications..). 'Soon as I saw that ... it was like, 'yup - there it is... the end of spring'  -- sorry, but experience and convention wisdom was like that voice in the chorus that's a 1/4 tone out of harmony and tough to ignore..if find.. It was more like a feeling.

2 ... different subject matter but, it seems that's not the first time in the last 10 years that's happened, where and when winter relaxes ..the slosh back is "un" climatologically over bearing.  I almost wonder .. if a threshold has already been crossed in GW, where we have to maintain a comparatively deeper look to maintain winter... 2012 ? that winter was an abeyance of a winter pattern.  It just seem 'back in the day' ..abeyance episodes still were like 'marginal' - if that makes any sense.  But is seems not it's gotta be all in or bust big.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll take this opportunity to admit - at least for me - that there was some omens in there back then.  They didn't portend too well for "the rest of the spring" - to which I quote because at the time, mid February ?  Hard for sane man  to call what took place (it was 83 down our way at enough back-yard weather stations to argue legitimacy) as spring, per se.  So what was it ?  Such massive anomalies did two things for me...

1 ... made me wonder what happens if/when things reload;  recall... it was about a week past the phenomenal anomaly's end that the models/ensembles began sniffing out a phenomenon that (as far as I recall) had not happened in a decade, and that is/was a bona fide west -based NAO (import distinction for ramifications..). 'Soon as I saw that ... it was like, 'yup - there it is... the end of spring'  -- sorry, but experience and convention wisdom was like that voice in the chorus that's a 1/4 tone out of harmony and tough to ignore..if find.. It was more like a feeling.

2 ... different subject matter but, it seems that's not the first time in the last 10 years that's happened, where and when winter relaxes ..the slosh back is "un" climatologically over bearing.  I almost wonder .. if a threshold has already been crossed in GW, where we have to maintain a comparatively deeper look to maintain winter... 2012 ? that winter was an abeyance of a winter pattern.  It just seem 'back in the day' ..abeyance episodes still were like 'marginal' - if that makes any sense.  But is seems not it's gotta be all in or bust big.

All good points.  

Cold pattern or not it's more the fact that keeping BTV away from 60F in March and so far in April seems like a feat.  

Just like a moose fart can bring 6-12" to Mt Mansfield, a cow fart in March or April can get BTV up there in temps.  Not even one rouge +5C 850mb downslope dandy where it's 60/20 super adiabatic dry off all the mountains surrounding the Champlain Valley.  Or some 12 hour warm sector on a cutter where it's 60/52 in early April before crashing.

Just constant cold.

[CoastalWx]

I think I’m getting old. I’m actually looking forward to some beach weather. This is the first time I’ve actually felt this way. It’s also the first time in a long time where I was done with winter cold. 

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’m getting old. I’m actually looking forward to some beach weather. This is the first time I’ve actually felt this way. It’s also the first time in a long time where I was done with winter cold. 

I started getting that way a couple years ago. Long live winter, but come late March gtfo of here.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’m getting old. I’m actually looking forward to some beach weather. This is the first time I’ve actually felt this way. It’s also the first time in a long time where I was done with winter cold. 

Welcome to my world. Same thing happened to me in my late 30’s. It just happens . You love cold and snow.. but you love them in season. It’s how we derived seasons in seasons. Slowly you’ll also come around on dews. It just happens . It’s life.. it’s evolution . Jerry is fully evolved too 

[CoastalWx]

Not sure I’ll do the dews. Maybe if I could go to the beach every day off lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure I’ll do the dews. Maybe if I could go to the beach every day off lol. 

I thought the same thing man. It just happens 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’m getting old. I’m actually looking forward to some beach weather. This is the first time I’ve actually felt this way. It’s also the first time in a long time where I was done with winter cold. 

I've had that feeling the past few years about being ready for it to warm up and be nice out.  Today was awesome with temps near 50F and sunshine.  High of 50F at the ASOS and now down to 33F.  Just felt great to have a sunny well-above freezing afternoon.  Torched the valley snow cover, except still some of the old winter snowpack in scattered shaded areas. 

Gets real chilly, real fast though once the sun goes behind the Spine with clear skies.  Super-adiabatic at the surface during the afternoon becomes a vacuum at night.

I definitely prefer seasons in seasons... but for me that actually means seasons in seasons, not extremes in seasons.  This location lends itself to the colder side of the spectrum though with regard to this forum.

[alex]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've had that feeling the past few years about being ready for it to warm up and be nice out.  Today was awesome with temps near 50F and sunshine.  High of 50F at the ASOS and now down to 33F.  Just felt great to have a sunny well-above freezing afternoon.  Torched the valley snow cover, except still some of the old winter snowpack in scattered shaded areas. 

Gets real chilly, real fast though once the sun goes behind the Spine with clear skies.  Super-adiabatic at the surface during the afternoon becomes a vacuum at night.

I definitely prefer seasons in seasons... but for me that actually means seasons in seasons, not extremes in seasons.  This location lends itself to the colder side of the spectrum though with regard to this forum.

Today was really exceptional. Temperature of almost 50F with full snow cover and late April sun. Can’t beat it. It was blindingly bright and the mountains plastered in snow with the current sun angle looked really stark against the blue sky. Spent most of the day outside boiling sap, you could see the snow melt in front of your eyes. Also did some sledding with the kids (and saw Gene!). We should lose a good chunk of the cover in sunny areas tomorrow but it’s DEEP in the woods. Temp 28.8F currently. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I thought the same thing man. It just happens 

No one likes high dews

[weathafella]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No one likes high dews

I do.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

No one likes high dews

Sorry you’re in the minority 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I like the dews when not working.  Classic HHH day with afternoon storms.  Being stuck doing labor in it sucks, need a cold air supply, water nearby.  

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry you’re in the minority 

Count me in that same minority.

[CoastalWx]

Most don’t prefer HHH.  Usually ends up with boring wx.

[dendrite]

Dead, humid, summer air sucks. Move that humid air around and it’s a lot more tolerable...almost enjoyable. It’s why I actually liked APF, but loathed GNV. I’d probably hate most of the interior SE during the summer. Give me ORF, MYR, or SAV and we can talk. With that said, I don’t need 75F dews...60-65F is enough. 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dead, humid, summer air sucks. Move that humid air around and it’s a lot more tolerable...almost enjoyable. It’s why I actually liked APF, but loathed GNV. I’d probably hate most of the interior SE during the summer. Give me ORF, MYR, or SAV and we can talk. With that said, I don’t need 75F dews...60-65F is enough. 

It’s great beach, pool, or lakeside. Don’t get me wrong. But, how often can we do that? Lol. Maybe back in the day. 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s great beach, pool, or lakeside. Don’t get me wrong. But, how often can we do that? Lol. Maybe back in the day. 

I’d like to get to the lake or beach more this summer. It sucks trying to time nice days with days off. 

[moneypitmike]

One benefit of being at the Pit is 99% of the time we manage to have a breeze get going so it's never too stagnant.

[CapturedNature]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Count me in that same minority.

Me too...

[Typhoon Tip]

On 4/20/2018 at 10:42 PM, OceanStWx said:

I believe it is just to denote "extended" forecast vs. the MAV which is the same GFS data but higher temporal resolution, short term guidance.

obviously...  leave it to me to contrive this whole agenda with the "EX"perimental version - woo!   nvr mnd

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry you’re in the minority 

You are an awful saleman.

....The telemarketer,or direct sales agent  that calls every day pushing the same, cheap product that no one wants. Maybe every so often you get a senior citizen to bite because he/she doesn't know any better.

...Like that car salesman who tries to convince you that paying sticker price is what everyone does.

...Like the guy who tries to push the timeshare while at Disney.  Only the foolish take advantage of it.

You are trying to sell something that 99% of the population want's nothing to do with.

[Typhoon Tip]

Kevin needs to be forcibly stationed in an adobe hut somewhere within a mile immediately adjacent to a Louisiana bayou out amid a field of stinging nettles and clouds of biting insects from circa July 1 through August 15 ... if he survives, it will be an interesting interview.  If he doesn't ... well ... either way, an increment of sanity is most likely reclaimed for thus of us that bear his supposed perspectives on summer dew points - 

Not that anyone asked, but I feel about high summer heat about like I do about ice storms?  I don't want - personally - either, but, I am fascinated by the atmospheric mechanics that engender those disparate phenomena. 

With ice storms ... the novelty and awesomeness of liquid changing phases and encasing exposed physicality ... disappears real fast when the lights go out.  I mean, let's face it ..we engage in this oft at times, unhealthy diversion/hobby ...not so much for Meteorological science - though there are some of those amongst us.. We engage for the cinema of the dramatic events.  Well, ice storms that approach the threshold are like going to see the great cinematic work from 1940. "Fantasia" ...and having either the sound, or video components of the recording, fail.  I mean ..if you want to find yourself standing there in an aura of no options but contemplating .. ultimately, capitulating to uncertainty ... than you're a truly rare breed - that's the polite way of saying it.   There really is nothing when standing in the dark, except those pining realizations in the quantum moment whenever you think of something else to do but are instead paused with the fact that everything you come up with ... can't happen. Oops. 

Heat has really less value to me when its inescapable ... You can only take so many clothes off - for the majority of us...taking any off is socially flat out unacceptable. Heh. But to get away from torrid afternoons...and when that extends into the evening... ? Basically, it's just as preventative for enjoying the outside as 50 mph winds in heavy sleet. So...you're relegated to indoors during the 'outdoor' season, and that makes summer even more futile than it is at a base-line anyway for those that loath nice weather in their coveted NEGATIVE S.A.D. condition.  Plus... big heat usually comes with a complete suppression of clouds, so as Brian sort of intimated... what are you doing? Nothing but sweating... perhaps if not probably effecting health in negative ways do to air quality and other erosive concerns to well-being and again, if that is the state of affairs you seek, .. than you're a truly a rare breed. 

My own insanity is that I am interested in the atmospheric events that unfold that bring either of those actually unsavory experiences to bear. It takes a 'compartmentalized thinking' approach to appreciate that lasher. Particularly ... with heat, I don't think that heat wave mechanics get recognized and or scienced enough.  You can see them in the charts days before they evolve... Typically, a +PNAP effectively 'caps' the heat and dams it back SW over the SW... Then, some sort of west-central Pacific Rosby wiggle takes place, and that sends a roll-out down stream and the PNAP flips signs... Heights descend slightly in summer, more so earlier in spring, toward the California coast, and that topples said dam - out comes the plume(s) of super charged air.  Whether those get suppressed farther E of 100 W ..or, Canada favors the transport toward the 45th parallel, that's what controls whether we get run-of-the-mill heat of summer ridging in the east, versus something special getting rattled around in there.  It's sort of similar to EML expulsions but ... not exactly; we are looking for that critical 22 C + air mass plume(s) in the 850 mb sigma level.  They tend to come together at times, but not always. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Summer enthusiasts probably like the 00z GGEM solution ... that's setting up the season's first heat early in the first week of May.  Flirts with a Sonoran kick -out like I was describing above, too, but it doesn't ultimately do so. But +10 to +14 C 850s pervasive every S of the 47th parallel, with the mean boundary displaced across southern or even mid Ontario with a continental conveyor the whole way from Arizona to Maine... yeah -

The Euro doesn't have the ridge panache, but does hint at a backside lower tropospheric warm conveyor getting started; however, this model can't seem to resist keeping the N/stream, anachronistically dominant up in S Canada ..which would most like completely prevent an transport from succeeding much east of the 90 W longitudes should that prevail.  Correctable?  yeah...but obviously everything is, just sayn'

Thing is, the teleconnectors from the CPC, wholly GEF's based ... have been signaling a GGEM look as being possible for early May for about three or four days consistently at this point. I mean ..the only reason I bother bring up the GGEM (of all models..) is because of that weighty factor.  GFS actually did do the warm thickness roll-outs on a couple times in there, too, but the 06z of course went back to winter. 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

You are an awful saleman.

....The telemarketer,or direct sales agent  that calls every day pushing the same, cheap product that no one wants. Maybe every so often you get a senior citizen to bite because he/she doesn't know any better.

...Like that car salesman who tries to convince you that paying sticker price is what everyone does.

...Like the guy who tries to push the timeshare while at Disney.  Only the foolish take advantage of it.

You are trying to sell something that 99% of the population want's nothing to do with.

Thanks a lot.