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I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Enjoy is a key word.  Enjoy.  Do you enjoy tracking something and it dies every time, four times in a row?  Ok then.  You have a odd sense of enjoyment if you do.  But I get it.  Me, I enjoy the first time, maybe the second time...start to get weary after the third time but I'm hanging on.   But fool me FOUR times? 

Like I said...I don't blame anyone for tuning out.  If you are emotionally invested in the final results I would probably say its a smart decision.  Every year is different.  In a year with a favorable pacific pattern and blocking...we can have a pretty high score rate and then tracking long range is fine even if you get upset when it fails...odds favor a decent hit rate.  But in a nina our batting average is going to be low.  Of course we hope to at least bat .200 and then if we can get 10 or so "threats" at range we can still eek out a couple hits and get to at least 50% of climo region wide.  This year we are batting LOW...depending on what you consider a "hit" and where you are either we are batting about .100 or 0 (those in the northwest).  I would consider December 9th a hit for most of us, the Winchester area not included of course.  But in a Nina tracking is not for those that need the payout.  Its always going to be frustrating.  The models, for whatever reason, dont resolve the inherent flaws for our location until closer, and so from range will shotgun some pretty good looking storms into the mix of solutions.  Then as we get close those disappear as the warts show themselves and most morph into miller b or coastal scrapers or suppressed events.  Thats nina climo. This year was just worse then even most nina's in that we got a pretty decent pattern much of the year and so had even more threats then usually and they ALL fails instead of just most.  Some of that is just bad luck stacked on top of a flawed pattern.  (even flawed patters have to result in snow sometimes or else we would average 5" a year). 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted

Tracking now for me is a lot less painful than it was. It's the middle of March, it's been an awful season, so I take any model runs showing snow with a grain of salt. If we actually go get snow, awesome. If we don't, oh well, I'll just laugh at the ways we invent to miss it.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ehh it only jumped the low from north of St Louis to along the TN/KY border in one run.  LOL

In seriousness though that's well within the normal error of a 120 hour prog. 

it kinda looks more believable when you consider the highs to the north.  i was sorta surprised it cut last run.  still a bit north, but further south than last run.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

nope its still a fail... it comes in south of the last gfs run but still well north of the runs that ended with snow yesterday, and again there is too much ridging in front for something coming from the west like that.  It's closer...I guess...or it might just be noise at that range but its not exactly what I wanted to see to feel good.  Well...nothing I could see at this range would make me feel good...but better I guess.  It stopped the bleeding I suppose but only a minor improvement in the ways that we need. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Amped said:

It ended up north of 6z,  looks like it phased at the last second.

It ended up more amped and west but never got north...and at our longitude where it matters for us it was south...but it was only about half of the jump south we would need.  It does get the system under us...technically but it still has too much ridging in front and drives the thermal boundary way north of us before the jump so its too little too late. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Amped said:

It ended up north of 6z,  looks like it phased at the last second.

this look is a little concerning...but if the whole system can track further south it may not be as impacted by that last second energy diving out of canada.  i like the look for a storm at least.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031412&fh=156

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

nope its still a fail... it comes in south of the last gfs run but still well north of the runs that ended with snow yesterday, and again there is too much ridging in front for something coming from the west like that.  It's closer...I guess...or it might just be noise at that range but its not exactly what I wanted to see to feel good.  Well...nothing I could see at this range would make me feel good...but better I guess.  It stopped the bleeding I suppose but only a minor improvement in the ways that we need. 

It's an op run at day 5/6. It's close to being in the wheel house of what we need as far as track, transfer and strengthening. I am not sure what more you could ask for. If the ensembles follow the leader like they are prone to do there is a good chance we see some very good solutions pop out.

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