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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

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I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

March 12-14th Nor'easter snow map number four.gif

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

March 12-14th Nor'easter snow map number four.gif

No love for LI :)- nice write up to explain your reasoning though

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Diggiebot

Diggiebot

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Posted
6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

March 12-14th Nor'easter snow map number four.gif

12-18 with 2ft jackpots seems a little more plausible. 40 plus hasn’t really been shown by a model. 

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MarkO

MarkO

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Posted
9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I' went real robust with my latest snowfall map.  Reasoning, models are high on snowfall outputs, even though we have started off as rain, we are cooling quickly throughout the boundary layer.  RI is already showing this through observations they started off as rain and turned to heavy wet snow now.  Also snowfall rates once it does snow, will be very heavy for a 10 hour period at least, we are talking 2-4" an hour in bands, I think I know where those bands are going to set up, but as always there is a chance I am wrong as well, but the coast from Cape Ann to slightly inland from Essex to Barnstable counties in the blizzard warnings should be favored to see the highest amounts where 40" could be reached.  Models are very high on widespread amounts of QPF in the region over 2" from eastern CT to Maine, and there is a good chance I might bust low on the amounts in RI and CT.  With the severe wind gusts, winds already gusting to 35 to 50mph on the Cape and Islands, we could see severe blizzard conditions.  There will be no, absolutely no reason to drive anywhere tomorrow unless you are a plow driver or emergency manager official.  first bands are rolling now and remind me of a classic nor'easter blizzard that brings heavy snows.  Why this storm is bringing snow to the Cape and Islands and why Riley and Quinn didn't was because 850mb temps are very cold.  This will cool off the atmosphere through 3am EDT when snow will likely start here.  thanks for your time

March 12-14th Nor'easter snow map number four.gif

Go Big or Go Home, but I'm pretty sure you just lost a twitter follower from Stowe.

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