March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[wxsniss]

The northern stream energy is currently over Yukon/Northwest territories in Canada... I could be convinced better sampling will hone in the correct solution

Biggest changes imo were better digging of northern stream and delay of southern stream... looking at hr 48-60 you're almost expecting better stream interaction and a near phase but the flow is too fast

[weathafella]

Well it’s almost as it should be-the last night for “early” euro has a potential big storm in the relatively early panels.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, wxsniss said:

The northern stream energy is currently over Yukon/Northwest territories in Canada... I could be convinced better sampling will hone in the correct solution

Biggest changes imo were better digging of northern stream and delay of southern stream... looking at hr 48-60 you're almost expecting better stream interaction and a near phase but the flow is too fast

I don't disagree there ...  however, I really think the handling of the western ridge is pretty important in the fray of this whole thing.

As that feature you're noting finishes rounding the arc up there and starts descending in latitude ... if the ridge bulging in the backside (also keyed into the +PNA modularity/onset) is robust enough it will happen in tandem, and the impulse will start really carving more S as it cross the 50th parallel.  That would transitively mean a correction west ... and in fact, we may already be seeing the anatomy of that playing out, because one aspect I am in fact seeing across the models et al, is that around 48 hours from now, ...indeed the geopotential lines are pushed back west as that wave is coming down.  That feature coming down west in that situation would also be doing so as a stronger (upshot), but also, cause more cyclonic rotation between it and the S/stream impulse ...a key spatial relationship for phasing potential.

What goes up out west, punishes the E by forcing things down... that's the short metaphor.

So we'll see... But let's not forget that +PNAP result of the +PNA out west!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is you deformation goodies...interior se MA, through Boston, up along the north and shore and into coastal ME is getting crushed on the Euro.

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is you deformation goodies...interior se MA, through Boston, up along the north and shore and into coastal ME is getting crushed on the Euro.

 

Yeah I commented further up that I thought BOS to PYM looked pretty darn good at the furthest NW point of the CCB. They'd prob get the Berkshires/S VT band from last storm (obv doesn't mean the same amounts though) 

[Diggiebot]

EPS come out yet? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Diggiebot said:

EPS come out yet? 

About 15 min 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I commented further up that I thought BOS to PYM looked pretty darn good at the furthest NW point of the CCB. They'd prob get the Berkshires/S VT band from last storm (obv doesn't mean the same amounts though) 

Some of that was upslope augmented, no doubt.

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't disagree there ...  however, I really think the handling of the western ridge is pretty important in the fray of this whole thing.

As that feature you're noting finishes rounding the arc up there and starts descending in latitude ... if the ridge bulging in the backside (also keyed into the +PNA modularity/onset) is robust enough it will happen in tandem, and the impulse will start really carving more S as it cross the 50th parallel.  That would transitively mean a correction west ... and in fact, we may already be seeing the anatomy of that playing out, because one aspect I am in fact seeing across the models et al, is that around 48 hours from now, ...indeed the geopotential lines are pushed back west as that wave is coming down.  That feature coming down west in that situation would also be doing so as a stronger (upshot), but also, cause more cyclonic rotation between it and the S/stream impulse ...a key spatial relationship for phasing potential.

What goes up out west, punishes the E by forcing things down... that's the short metaphor.

So we'll see... But let's not forget that +PNAP result of the +PNA out west!

What's "PNAP"?

Agree, this is best illustrated toggling 12z/0z at hr 48: with a sharper ridge in the west, we get a further west track and sharper dive of northern stream... it also seems to be delaying the exit of the southern stream... everything is slightly less progressive, so net effect is a better interaction.

Feels like we have good buffer here in eastern SNE... pretty confident we get at least a moderate hit even with more or less stream interaction, and ensembles support a closer hit.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, wxsniss said:

What's "PNAP"?

Agree, this is best illustrated toggling 12z/0z at hr 48: with a sharper ridge in the west, we get a further west track and sharper dive of northern stream... it also seems to be delaying the exit of the southern stream... everything is slightly less progressive, so net effect is a better interaction.

Feels like we have good buffer here in eastern SNE... pretty confident we get at least a moderate hit even with more or less stream interaction, and ensembles support a closer hit.

Its the Pacific North American Pattern

[weathafella]

EPS with a mean of 1+ Inside 495.

[wxsniss]

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well to be fair I didn’t comment but I had about 5 model windows open so couldn’t multi task fast enough...lol.  6+ for us the n the euro.

Yeah we could all use multi-monitor consoles instead of 15+ tabs open simultaneously on a phone.

I think we're in a great spot on this one, the 3rd of the Goldilocks storms.

[WeatherFeen2000]

Just now, weathafella said:

EPS with a mean of 1+ Inside 495.

How about nyc?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Its the Pacific North American Pattern

Actually .. no, the PNA is the Pacific -North American Pattern. 

The PNAP is the Perennial North American Pattern.  It refers to the baseline state ... which is the average state of the perennial flow from west to east across the country. 

Because of the Rocky mountains, the air is forced up and over, but the Coriolis param bends that motion into an anticylonic (ridge) construct - but it's not extreme... It just like a tendency.. Counter balancing, there is a tendency to flatten the flow/quasi troughing relative to, down stream over the E. 

Such that a  neutral PNAP takes on that complexion.

A -PNAP is some variation in the opposing direction ... such a trough in the west and a ridge in the east.  And naturally ... a +PNAP is a an exaggeration of the basal flow structure. 

I like to discuss these as different "modes" ...even though "mode" doesn't really apply to PNAP.  I do so, though, because there are times ...albeit rare, where a -PNA has some western ridge and vice versa.

[wx2fish]

EPS look simlar to the op, but juicier. Have to be some pretty amped members in there

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Oh thanks for clarifying Tip

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

How about nyc?

EPS suggests nyc is too far west for serious snow.  

 

Maybe 3-6 on eps?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS suggests nyc is too far west for serious snow.  

 

Maybe 3-6 on eps?

How does Cape Cod do Jerry?

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

EPS suggests nyc is too far west for serious snow.  

Maybe this will phase a little sooner and spread the joy?

[wxeyeNH]

I had pretty much discounted this storm up here.  12Z runs very encouraging.  Arrghh  on the time change.  We need to change this like the way it was a few years ago when I think it happened later in March...

[weathafella]

Just now, JBinStoughton said:

Maybe this will phase a little sooner and spread the joy?

Yes.   But it’s more like January 2015 vs other events.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to be a jerk but I didn't think or expect really the EPS mean to look too much different.  Mainly because it rarely does.

Unlike the GEFs, which really do behave like a perturbed variations, the EPS members seem to just really move with the operational. 

That's not knock on the ECMWF system... Frankly, I'm not sure why that is the case.  But the EPS has differences among the members that are rarely as extreme as the GEF members. 

So, having the mean look similar sort of expected for me.  I think we may yet see one last correction west ...next cycle, it's a matter of how much.  As I mentioned earlier, I could see that coming perhaps "too far" west before settling back toward or just outside the BM.  Going to be interesting ...

[weathafella]

Watches up tomorrow morning?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

How does Cape Cod do Jerry?

Geez EPS crush job

[Connecticut Appleman]

To my untrained eye - It looks like the EPS mean appears to be pulled east by a bunch of members halfway to Europe in the timeframe of interest.  

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Watches up tomorrow morning?

You think Blizzard Watches will go up?

[wx2fish]

Looks like the 1" line on the EPS makes it back to ORH-MHT-CON

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, weathafella said:

Watches up tomorrow morning?

Watches could go up tonight but i would suspect that they would want to look at the 00z runs before jumping on anything and confidence may not be up to 50% yet. Well see.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS def have some big western members because you can see the spread west on the spaghetti charts. I'm sure someone else has the typical sfc pressure maps. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS down to PYM and certainly the cape look like they get in on the CCB. 

Which thread do we post in?