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stormtracker

March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe I spoke too soon?  That H5 is enticing.  Now the Northern vort is trying to catch the SOB southern one.  Still thing it'll be too late for us, but man

I still think you guys have plenty of time for a trend. The low is taking off and deepening pretty rapidly. It is very tucky.

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Some snow reaches the area at 57 but.....Probaly heads out to sea after 57 but a major improvement. Frankly, I don't know how any depiction for any model can be trusted after this week.

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Nam at 48 hours showing exactly what we need to have any chance. The initial vort to the south  is stronger and not trailing. The northern stream is slightly west. Look at the 48 hour h5 on TT and toggle the last two runs. One more adjustment like that and it might get captured and pulled north up the coast in time for us. 

Of course this is probably going to just be enough to pull it in for New England and that's why I'm down. We now need a perfect timed capture and that never seems to work. But I'll track it to the bitter end. Why not. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We want the lakes vort to dig down faster

Ok. Because it will phase into the backside? I thought the fear was that it would push the coastal OTS?

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Nam at 48 hours showing exactly what we need to have any chance. The initial vort to the south  is stronger and not trailing. The northern stream is slightly west. Look at the 48 hour h5 on TT and toggle the last two runs. One more adjustment like that and it might get captured and pulled north up the coast in time for us. 

Of course this is probably going to just be enough to pull it in for New England and that's why I'm down. We now need a perfect timed capture and that never seems to work. But I'll track it to the bitter end. Why not. 

Of course it's going to phase in time for NE.  Duh.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe I spoke too soon?  That H5 is enticing.  Now the Northern vort is trying to catch the SOB southern one.  Still thing it'll be too late for us, but man

It's close.  If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot.  But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close.  If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot.  But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh 

I honestly thought there would be a classic Mid Atlantic only region wide snowstorm with the depiction of the NAO block a couple weeks ago, yet it is the NE that continues to be hammered. Hard to believe. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close.  If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot.  But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh 

lol, PSU, you have to leave the past in the past. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's close.  If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot.  But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh 

982mb off the virginia capes is a boxing day disaster? 

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NAM went from 3 runs of a strung out mess to a colossal nor’easter in one run. Can’t say we haven’t been on this roller coaster before. 965 low passing off the 40/70 benchmark. There is not a single piece of guidance that has this locked in. Nothing can be trusted. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh60-66.gif

The depiction is what Mount Holly was talking about in thier discussion , rapid intensification based on Atlanitc SSTs and other factors .

 

 

 

 

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That’s a significant shift north from 6z. Still mostly ots but we get close to fringed here. I agree that it’s all about how that upper energy diving through the lakes interacts with the NS, SS, and 50/50.  Might need that to be further south and timed better but it’s close.

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Just now, frd said:

The depiction is what Mount Holly was talking about in thier discussion , rapid intensification based on Atlanitc SSTs and other factors .

 

 

 

 

Why is it moving so fast though? It's like a 6-hour storm in that depiction. What's the point of confluence if it just lets the low plow forward that fast? Also, it seems to be shedding millibars at a ridiculous rate.

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

NAM went from 3 runs of a strung out mess to a colossal nor’easter in one run. Can’t say we haven’t been on this roller coaster before. 965 low passing off the 40/70 benchmark. There is not a single piece of guidance that has this locked in. Nothing can be trusted. 

 

I have that sneaky suspicion this one is still trending. Gotta love waking up to explosive thunderstorm development in the Gulf. Sign that conditions are present for things to happen ;). Lets all be positive on this one. Save the best for last.

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh man...NAM is excruciatingly close to something nice

dude we got plenty of time. The Nam shifted by 900 miles lol in one run...the storm for us now is Monday night....its a completely different storm than what we been tracking

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Why is it moving so fast though? It's like a 6-hour storm in that depiction. What's the point of confluence if it just lets the low plow forward that fast? Also, it seems to be shedding millibars at a ridiculous rate.

Speed is not something I worry about but nice to see a positive trend. Good call by Mount Holly, not saying this is the final outcome as I believe thier forecast discussion stated that it would be later cycles that the NAM may change its tune, I do not think they meant this current cycle. I feel a lot more changes still on the way. 

 

     

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