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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
You're going to have to, son.  It'll be alright...even as painful as it will be.

This might be worst yet because we have no snow in 2 years. Nam now shows a strong low at obx still missing us

Philly gets nuked.    Dems da breaks with a Miller B.   

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No one should trust the NAM at this range under any circumstances...but it absolutely nailed things when I was in Albany. Smoked the GFS and Euro. Unfortunately, it was a catastrophe virtually everywhere east :lol: 

3km NAM actually did pretty well down in SE PA. I was impressed with that model the last storm. NAM 12km was meh for long range, but certainly did a good job over Upstate NY inside 36 hours. This setup is so tight that we're talking less than 100 miles from major impact. Like the trends on guidance so far at H5. Could be worse. It's inching southwest and still have a few days.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Icon is digging for more oil too.  Lol. The classic 48 hours out tease before it all goes the other way. 

Probably. That's how it's played out a lot lately. But eventually one of these times it will break our way inside 48 hours. We still have plenty of time. But I'm with you lately every time we get close it's just a tease. And this is the type of setup that historically is a tease. But we might as well track it and hope since we're a ways away from getting too invested in the next threat even if it is a great setup. 

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Focus on D7

Icon loves day 7. Sends a nice little wave to our south straight out to sea. Seems a little premature to put all your hope in a day 7 threat. At this lead it still could disappear. I'd rather track something 48-60hrs away that only needs a 50 mile shift south to get me a decent event then write this event off in hopes that an event a week out works in my favor. 

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

I hate the globals

There's a similar split with the Canadians.  The 18z GGEM was poor for just about everyone, but the extended RGEM showed a good hit for NE MD and Philly.  Looks like something similar is going to happen at 00z.  Here's the 00z extended RGEM.

K2Azkeo.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, these miller b type of deals have a lot of storied history around here. I don't expect anything to change with that. If it happens then great but I don't care who gets nuked. 

The philly thing is a misnomer though. Typically Philly only does marginally better then us with miner b's. I know I grew up there. If we get nothing they rarely get more then 3-6"' If we get 3-6" they rarely get more then a foot. Once in a blue moon there is an uber tight gradient but usually it's New England that gets nuked when we miss. If we get scraps and philly gets 20" that's gonna hurt a bit in a season like this. 

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There's a similar split with the Canadians.  The 18z GGEM was poor for just about everyone, but the extended RGEM showed a good hit for NE MD and Philly.  Looks like something similar is going to happen at 00z.  Here's the 00z extended RGEM.
K2Azkeo.png&key=8f8df5e7e626245615f1b4647c85b6fe9b8cdb491c3b09835cda1923f1cb2285
 
Brutal
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The philly thing is a misnomer though. Typically Philly only does marginally better then us with miner b's. I know I grew up there. If we get nothing they rarely get more then 3-6"' If we get 3-6" they rarely get more then a foot. Once in a blue moon there is an uber tight gradient but usually it's New England that gets nuked when we miss. If we get scraps and philly gets 20" that's gonna hurt a bit in a season like this. 

In one of my worse moments (in late January 2015) there were model runs that showed Philly getting 20"+ while we got next to nothing and I actually wished for Philly to get screwed because that kind of cutoff was obscene. Funny enough, my wish came true and they ended up with almost nothing.

December 2000 and December 2010 are probably the most painful differences I can think of between us and Philly. I'm sure there are others but those two stand out.

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41 minutes ago, Fozz said:

In one of my worse moments (in late January 2015) there were model runs that showed Philly getting 20"+ while we got next to nothing and I actually wished for Philly to get screwed because that kind of cutoff was obscene. Funny enough, my wish came true and they ended up with almost nothing.

December 2000 and December 2010 are probably the most painful differences I can think of between us and Philly. I'm sure there are others but those two stand out.

They were the worst but Philly only got 8" and 12" in those. Not 20". This would be historic uber bad

 

 

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