stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You're going to have to, son. It'll be alright...even as painful as it will be. This might be worst yet because we have no snow in 2 years. Nam now shows a strong low at obx still missing us Philly gets nuked. Dems da breaks with a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: Don’t worry, day 7/8 will deliver. I would give up this storm and December snow of next winter in exchsnge for a day 7/8 HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 So, there's a lot of weakened trees that just limped through this past weekend. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Amped said: NAM was pivoting the whole 500mb setup faster this run starting at 30hrs. No wonder it negative tilted way earlier. Update, RGEM appears be rotating it even faster @30hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Update, RGEM appears be rotating it even faster @30hrs It looks like it's about to or is transferring at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Icon is digging for more oil too. Lol. The classic 48 hours out tease before it all goes the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: No one should trust the NAM at this range under any circumstances...but it absolutely nailed things when I was in Albany. Smoked the GFS and Euro. Unfortunately, it was a catastrophe virtually everywhere east 3km NAM actually did pretty well down in SE PA. I was impressed with that model the last storm. NAM 12km was meh for long range, but certainly did a good job over Upstate NY inside 36 hours. This setup is so tight that we're talking less than 100 miles from major impact. Like the trends on guidance so far at H5. Could be worse. It's inching southwest and still have a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Icon is digging for more oil too. Lol. The classic 48 hours out tease before it all goes the other way. Could be a trend. But with our luck, it'll keep trending until the trof is so negative, it runs inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 0z Nam's trolling again...trend continues to bring coastal W and get some of us some long overdue snow. I'm dipping my toe back in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Could be a trend. But with our luck, it'll keep trending until the trof is so negative, it runs inland. I'm totally good with that too. All the people that are dead to me would get rained on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon is digging for more oil too. Lol. The classic 48 hours out tease before it all goes the other way. You can def tell at hr 48 that ICON is digging more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm totally good with that too. All the people that are dead to me would get rained on too. Let's get ready for the GFS reality...and then the flush hit, only to be erased at 6z. Sit down a while and have a drink with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon is digging for more oil too. Lol. The classic 48 hours out tease before it all goes the other way. Probably. That's how it's played out a lot lately. But eventually one of these times it will break our way inside 48 hours. We still have plenty of time. But I'm with you lately every time we get close it's just a tease. And this is the type of setup that historically is a tease. But we might as well track it and hope since we're a ways away from getting too invested in the next threat even if it is a great setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Decent hit for NE MD on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I hate the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I hate the globals Focus on D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Damn gfs targets philly just like nam. Fringes us just like nam. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Focus on D7 Yea, these miller b type of deals have a lot of storied history around here. I don't expect anything to change with that. If it happens then great but I don't care who gets nuked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Focus on D7 Icon loves day 7. Sends a nice little wave to our south straight out to sea. Seems a little premature to put all your hope in a day 7 threat. At this lead it still could disappear. I'd rather track something 48-60hrs away that only needs a 50 mile shift south to get me a decent event then write this event off in hopes that an event a week out works in my favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate the globals There's a similar split with the Canadians. The 18z GGEM was poor for just about everyone, but the extended RGEM showed a good hit for NE MD and Philly. Looks like something similar is going to happen at 00z. Here's the 00z extended RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS digging further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS digging further west this run.For march 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, these miller b type of deals have a lot of storied history around here. I don't expect anything to change with that. If it happens then great but I don't care who gets nuked. The philly thing is a misnomer though. Typically Philly only does marginally better then us with miner b's. I know I grew up there. If we get nothing they rarely get more then 3-6"' If we get 3-6" they rarely get more then a foot. Once in a blue moon there is an uber tight gradient but usually it's New England that gets nuked when we miss. If we get scraps and philly gets 20" that's gonna hurt a bit in a season like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 There's a similar split with the Canadians. The 18z GGEM was poor for just about everyone, but the extended RGEM showed a good hit for NE MD and Philly. Looks like something similar is going to happen at 00z. Here's the 00z extended RGEM. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS digging further west this run. For march 7? Oops wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The philly thing is a misnomer though. Typically Philly only does marginally better then us with miner b's. I know I grew up there. If we get nothing they rarely get more then 3-6"' If we get 3-6" they rarely get more then a foot. Once in a blue moon there is an uber tight gradient but usually it's New England that gets nuked when we miss. If we get scraps and philly gets 20" that's gonna hurt a bit in a season like this. In one of my worse moments (in late January 2015) there were model runs that showed Philly getting 20"+ while we got next to nothing and I actually wished for Philly to get screwed because that kind of cutoff was obscene. Funny enough, my wish came true and they ended up with almost nothing. December 2000 and December 2010 are probably the most painful differences I can think of between us and Philly. I'm sure there are others but those two stand out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM gives philly 1-2'. GGEM gives them a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 UKIE gives us QPF at hr 60 and 72... but what it is will need meteogram for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, Fozz said: In one of my worse moments (in late January 2015) there were model runs that showed Philly getting 20"+ while we got next to nothing and I actually wished for Philly to get screwed because that kind of cutoff was obscene. Funny enough, my wish came true and they ended up with almost nothing. December 2000 and December 2010 are probably the most painful differences I can think of between us and Philly. I'm sure there are others but those two stand out. They were the worst but Philly only got 8" and 12" in those. Not 20". This would be historic uber bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 00z RGEM ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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