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Central PA - March 2018

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

No he's not at all. I thought it was interesting that he was silent for 3 days...perhaps he was resting up for a wild week ahead? 

Any who have a basic understanding of pattern recognition, could tell from over a week ago, that if it verifired (and it likely is), that we are heading into what may be a memorable (albeit brief) period.  It's always the big if, but with verification, there is no reason to think a shutout is the higher percentage.  While that also doesnt mean "feet" for everyone, it surely means lots of fun for some/many here. 

And that wasnt meant in a way to slight anyone, but I'm saying that he likely knew it was coming.  Thats all.

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

lol, my daughter is heading to NYC Wednesday for for a Journalism conference. :lol: 

 

The 2010 back to back events were pretty special. can it be duplicated?

 

 

 

#pleasegodsayyes

Is she intentionally trying to travel during bad weather?

How did her flight go the other day?

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Is she intentionally trying to travel during bad weather?

How did her flight go the other day?

She isn't a weather geek like her father, so she had no idea about the a storm until i told her :mellow: She traveled to Chicago and now NY for the Millersville paper. Going on train this time.

Minor delay flying out, she said no issues. 

 

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, canderson said:

Huh, GFS falls to the NAM for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Imagine that. 

Will WSW's be hoisted later today?  With the GFS seemingly coming on board I would think the chances for them have gone up quite a bit.  3K using Kuchera gave LANCO area over 12"!!

Actually here's the breakdown for MDT and LAN:  3K using 10:1 gives MDT 10" and LAN 22"; using Kuchera gives MDT 5" and LAN 15"

12K using 10:1 gives MDT 11" and LAN 21"; using Kuchera gives MDT 8" and LAN 16".

Gotta like where LANCO is sitting right now with most conservative numbers near 15".  GFS gives LAN 15" at 10:1 and 9" Kuchera.  

Pretty sweet for LANCO folks.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Euro came west...but not enough. Still on the outside looking in for anything significant until you get closer to the PA/NJ border. 

FWIW the Euro has not been a rock on this one.  For me I'm looking for trends, and this storm has been trending w/sw on most guidance.  Meso's are starting to have merit due to resolution and with GFS/NAM combo....I'll play.

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW the Euro has not been a rock on this one.  For me I'm looking for trends, and this storm has been trending w/sw on most guidance.  Meso's are starting to have merit due to resolution and with GFS/NAM combo....I'll play.

 

Oh me too. I just wanted the Euro to cave a little more than it did. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Oh me too. I just wanted the Euro to cave a little more than it did. 

it caved on next week.....so you have that cave :) 

hehe

I'm such a smart@ss

all seriousness, i agree 100% but it rarely does IMO.  IF and thats a big IF, the NAM/GFS continue as modeled, you'll see it cave further, but likely miss to some degree.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

it caved on next week.....so you have that cave :) 

hehe

I'm such a smart@ss

all seriousness, i agree 100% but it rarely does IMO.  IF and thats a big IF, the NAM/GFS continue as modeled, you'll see it cave further, but likely miss to some degree.

...but you live in PA where it always snows. Our climate is so vastly different than MD...don't you realize that yet? Yes, I went there, I can be a smartazz too. :)

No one here at work is talking about snow on Wednesday. I'm sitting by quietly...hoping the boom is fully lowered and tomorrow everyone around me is going apesh*t all the sudden. 

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted 
PAZ057>059-065-066-061230-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
York, and Lancaster
217 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches at lower elevations with localized amounts up to 10
  inches possible on the ridges.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, York and Lancaster
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
  reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter
weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.
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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

FWIW

@MUweather
(1/2) Yes, there is another #Noreaster developing...for Wednesday. Winds will not be as extreme as last Friday's, but there will be heavy snow again in parts of eastern PA. Just where is very tricky given marginal temps, uncertain storm track, sharp west edge & daylight timing.

@MUweather
(2/2) Elevation will also play a role...with 12"+ of snow at some high terrain locations btwn the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers. Wet snow in low elevations may struggle to stick, but it will become plowable at locations seeing the heaviest snow band ("where" is up for debate).

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, canderson said:

FWIW

@MUweather
(1/2) Yes, there is another #Noreaster developing...for Wednesday. Winds will not be as extreme as last Friday's, but there will be heavy snow again in parts of eastern PA. Just where is very tricky given marginal temps, uncertain storm track, sharp west edge & daylight timing.

@MUweather
(2/2) Elevation will also play a role...with 12"+ of snow at some high terrain locations btwn the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers. Wet snow in low elevations may struggle to stick, but it will become plowable at locations seeing the heaviest snow band ("where" is up for debate).

He keeps it real...no hype, and lays out all the things that can go wrong that weenies like to ignore sometimes. Last March he was ALL over our area changing over to sleet/freezing rain before any model showed that scenario. Sure enough...a good many of us tainted for hours. 

2 things he excels at:

  • Placing science over models
  • Impeccable knowledge of our local climate and history of how previous storms impacted our area. 
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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

He keeps it real...no hype, and lays out all the things that can go wrong that weenies like to ignore sometimes. Last March he was ALL over our area changing over to sleet/freezing rain before any model showed that scenario. Sure enough...a good many of us tainted for hours. 

2 things he excels at:

  • Placing science over models
  • Impeccable knowledge of our local climate and history of how previous storms impacted our area. 

what a lot in this area lack. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, canderson said: 

PAZ057>059-065-066-061230-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
York, and Lancaster
217 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches at lower elevations with localized amounts up to 10
  inches possible on the ridges.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, York and Lancaster
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant
  reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter
weather safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/winter.

Nice, we haven’t had many Watches this year ! It seems like CTP is following the lead of the NAM & GEFS. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
Just now, sauss06 said:

what a lot in this area lack. 

Yes sir, and it's often important and comes in to play big time. 

One of his biggest arguments last March was how rare it is to get 18" of snow in Lanco...only a couple of times in recorded history has that happened. It takes something special to get that amount of snow in this area. 

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