40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 I am seeing some flaws with the tamer analogs, though...I will delve into individual analogs more in my next blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are about to begin October. If this el nino is going to try to go more east or take off, which I am about ready to write off, then it will do so now. Its not happening with that subsurface....it will take at least a month to realign that, prob longer. And by that point, then it's another several weeks to get it to surface...so we're talking like Dec/January by that point. Pretty much too late to have a major impact on winter. Maybe it could impact March...and that assumes the changesstart happening right away. I don't see it in the kelvin waves...there's one near the date line but it looks like it weakens significantly as it goes east and that is just going to reinforce the west-based idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It doesn't have to be a blockbuster, either, but odds are greater than usual for above normal snow and below normal temps. No guarantees, though. Yeah based on ENSO and solar, it's hard not to be optimistic....though '94-'95 is still lurking. It wasn't a solar min but getting close (min didn't happen until late '95 and '96), and the QBO is a good match. I do have reservations about that analog still being in the tail end of the Pinatubo +AO regime...so that may limit it's use. But it's not like it was only a year later. 1963-1964 is a pretty solid analog on all 3 of solar, ENSO, and QBO. But we'll see how well that holds up as we head through the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah based on ENSO and solar, it's hard not to be optimistic....though '94-'95 is still lurking. It wasn't a solar min but getting close (min didn't happen until late '95 and '96), and the QBO is a good match. I do have reservations about that analog still being in the tail end of the Pinatubo +AO regime...so that may limit it's use. But it's not like it was only a year later. 1963-1964 is a pretty solid analog on all 3 of solar, ENSO, and QBO. But we'll see how well that holds up as we head through the next 2 months. 94-95 was low-end moderate, though...I think modoki was similar to 06-07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 Solar emphasis. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-2018-2019-analogs.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 Epic winter coming this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 94-95 coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 94-95 coming. A halftime break with dews in mid Jan would be awesome. And by break I mean MAN vs regular AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 94-95 coming. Lol way to throw the stick in the spokes of powder boys Epic winter call. That winter had one good storm/Nor’Easter...other than that it sucked Azz...but it was ironically sandwiched in between two Fabulous record breaking winter seasons of 93-94 and 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 I’m just going to be the contrarian since everyone is going good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just going to be the contrarian since everyone is going good winter. 11/12 incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just going to be the contrarian since everyone is going good winter. Lol ya I can see that!! Good balance there though...I like the thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just going to be the contrarian since everyone is going good winter. Scott Mazarotti. Only I way I see that happening is if solar min gets delayed and a volcano spouts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol ya I can see that!! Good balance there though...I like the thought process. Amex ensembles. Scoot is like the NOGAPS on the spaghetti plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just going to be the contrarian since everyone is going good winter. I doesn't have to be a blockbuster...odds of such an occurence are just significantly elevated relative to normal. Could be like 05 for temps and 64 for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 So the signs are good but sometimes the analog is good but luck isn’t. We’ve had a run of good luck with good patterns lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: So the signs are good but sometimes the analog is good but luck isn’t. We’ve had a run of good luck with good patterns lately. I will say....the weak nino-solar min comp is not only cold, but wet along the east coast...especially north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will say....the weak nino-solar min comp is not only cold, but wet along the east coast...especially north. If you look at 2014-15, one epic month made an all timer. So wire to wire is great but give us a good stretch with the lead in factors and we should do pretty well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: If you look at 2014-15, one epic month made an all timer. So wire to wire is great but give us a good stretch with the lead in factors and we should do pretty well. That season is actually in my solar max comp...which maybe why the AO/NAO was crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That season is actually in my solar max comp...which maybe why the AO/NAO was crap. Solar however has been muted even during the maximum for about the plast 12 years or so I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Solar emphasis. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-2018-2019-analogs.html Nice research and comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Solar however has been muted even during the maximum for about the plast 12 years or so I think. Maybe explains why the EPO blocking was still so immense and it produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe explains why the EPO blocking was still so immense and it produced. Exactly! Wonder if 1976-77 stands up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Exactly! Wonder if 1976-77 stands up... The solar stuff is just another piece, though...68-69 was also near a solar max....wonder if maybe climo can overwhelm the solar signal at its peak. 2015 and 1969 had one insane month stretch, and not much on either end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe explains why the EPO blocking was still so immense and it produced. Thoughts on the abnormally warm October to come, I've heard that it looks more like a La Nina pattern than a Nino. Is this due to the relatively weak state of the Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Thoughts on the abnormally warm October to come, I've heard that it looks more like a La Nina pattern than a Nino. Is this due to the relatively weak state of the Nino? I think it’s totally unrelated to upcoming ENSO. It could be a hangover from the summer but mid month October looks to flip cooler. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think it’s totally unrelated to upcoming ENSO. It could be a hangover from the summer but mid month October looks to flip cooler. I like a dramatic flip in time for Halloween and then a steady descent from there. Seems like the pieces are there if they’ll only come together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Thoughts on the abnormally warm October to come, I've heard that it looks more like a La Nina pattern than a Nino. Is this due to the relatively weak state of the Nino? No thoughts. Irrelevence is bliss- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 It’s definitely a bit Nina like. Very similar to last year. It’s not like there is no shortage of cool weather, it just won’t be here for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scott Mazarotti. Only I way I see that happening is if solar min gets delayed and a volcano spouts off. Someone photoshop my face to him lol. In all honesty I don’t see any red flags yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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