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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000
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Most of the models are kind of past their usefulness for a system like this--at least until the ccb and banding sets up. But from everything we've seen so far, this storm is probably going to be one of those deals where places like Eastern Monmouth are getting blitzed while New Brunswick is 34 and rain/white rain. Given the state of the broader global pattern right now, I'd place my bets on something interesting happening over meh, though.  

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29 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

 Bernie still buying in according to his tweet,,,,,he does not usually love the NAM but says it will have a handle on this storm,,,,,should be an interesting 2 days I look forward to todays models and the info from all of you-----I guess it still comes down to ULL closing off and where ,,,,no ?

Don't be surprised by any of this. You might still be ok up there though. 50 miles can make a big difference. 

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I wouldn’t sleep on this storm, even for the city, I could easily see 6-10 paste with a sharp eastern cut off...I think west of the Hudson is in better shape Obv,  but never underestimate a closed ULL... and if the the nam has the 700 low tracked proper then sky’s the limit imo... she will dump... models are having a hard time determining strength/influence of both the Northern Stream feature/Confluence... given the current Synoptics, GFS surface maps should be ignored, and last nights euro was riddled with convection issues... furthermore proving how Global’s cannot handle these dynamics.

 

on top of a split 250 Jet ripping 175+kt ULL closes ULL just south, and a 700 low strong as I’ve ever seen in similar position, the frontogenic implication should be astounding

 

in short.. ignor the SLP placement, focus of 500/700mb

 

and ignor snow maps 

 

P.s recon data today, let’s see what models says this afternoon 

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28 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I wouldn’t sleep on this storm, even for the city, I could easily see 6-10 paste with a sharp eastern cut off...I think west of the Hudson is in better shape Obv,  but never underestimate a closed ULL... and if the the nam has the 700 low tracked proper then sky’s the limit imo... she will dump... models are having a hard time determining strength/influence of both the Northern Stream feature/Confluence... given the current Synoptics, GFS surface maps should be ignored, and last nights euro was riddled with convection issues... furthermore proving how Global’s cannot handle these dynamics.

 

on top of a split 250 Jet ripping 175+kt ULL closes ULL just south, and a 700 low strong as I’ve ever seen in similar position, the frontogenic implication should be astounding

 

in short.. ignor the SLP placement, focus of 500/700mb

 

and ignor snow maps 

 

P.s recon data today, let’s see what models says this afternoon 

Looks like the WSW posted for Orange, W Passaic is specifically for those above 800' as per Upton. Elevation is gonna play a factor as well..

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Anyone notice that the 6z Nam (really all guidance for that matter) at hour 7 which is essentially now is way less intense than current obs? I think this thing is coming together quickly and we're in for a storm that verifies at the higher end (not necessarily snow, but overall strength/impacts)

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23 minutes ago, friedmators said:

That primary is pretty far north on the HRRR.  It's still kinda amazing what a marginal thermal profile will do to even short range forecasts.

Yes, and it has it snowing all the way to Albany and northern MA.  The gfs for reference doesn’t have it snowing anywhere east of Rochester at the same hour. Could mean nothing, but I might as well grasp and hope that it’s a sign that the gfs is indeed to warm with its thermal temps.

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The low is taking longer to stack this run, so the CCB is a bit slower to develop. Remember that the strongest precipitation is while the storm is still deepening. Once the lows become stacked the system peaks and then begins to weaken. Yesterday models had this occuring by 00z Saturday.

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