ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Logan11 said: The ridge out west is more impressive than with previous events so it would be kind of ironic if this is the one to miss. But of course that is just one factor. The one thing really arguing for a better trend is that as the shortwave is diving down, the ridge is in the process of amplifying rather than de-amplifying. When we see that positive rate of range in the ridge, that's where model guidance can sometimes underestimate the rate of trough deepening. It's often why we like to see the PNA rising rather than falling during a bigger ticket threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z Nam being the nam at the end of its run but it didn't look that bad at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: As much as I don't want it, this one is coming. There's a few potent s/w's in there though. The more that lead northern s/w digs the more the system should hug. Right now it's more of a kick than a slingshot. Wow this caught my attention more than anything this year, seriously that is how much I respect Brian's abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam being the nam at the end of its run but it didn't look that bad at H5 Yup, wants to come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: 12z Nam being the nam at the end of its run but it didn't look that bad at H5 That trough to the N could screw the pooch. If that either deamplifies or swings through faster and the southern showtwave digs further S or comes in a bit slower, than we'd be looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 One thing we could be focusing on the wrong SW, this could be Tues Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 42 minutes ago, weathafella said: 3/19/56 is in my top 5 According to the NCDC data i compiled for my area snowfall, 55-56 season was the best with 177", even more than 95-96, i can only imagine how great it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, SlantStick said: Dendrite with the reverse psychology thing! But I'm not sure if its reverse psychology or reverse reverse psychology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That trough to the N could screw the pooch. If that either deamplifies or swings through faster and the southern showtwave digs further S or comes in a bit slower, than we'd be looking pretty good. The 06z run it was already past bermuda...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: But I'm not sure if its reverse psychology or reverse reverse psychology. The ole dbbl reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, SlantStick said: Dendrite with the reverse psychology thing! Yeah the past few we’ve seen it... and it’s been working. Tip of the cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: The 06z run it was already past bermuda...lol You must be talking about the surface reflection? I was strictly speaking of the 500mb evolution. Looked better that the 06z run for sure but still could have been shunted post 84h with that trough in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You must be talking about the surface reflection? I was strictly speaking of the 500mb evolution. Looked better that the 06z run for sure but still could have been shunted post 84h with that trough in Ontario. I look at both, But the differences @H5 on the 06z run and 12z run were glaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Check out ensemble e20 in the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The Canadian ensembles are super excited for it. Maybe a little too excited. Calm down, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam being the nam at the end of its run but it didn't look that bad at H5 I think it's coming around. You can't ask more of a 84 hour NAM. When it gets into the 3km NAM range you might see that model get it. Though we know it goes overboard...it has it's utilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, tavwtby said: According to the NCDC data i compiled for my area snowfall, 55-56 season was the best with 177", even more than 95-96, i can only imagine how great it was The final event in '56 (Catskills area) was apparently not long before Memorial Day ... according to my Dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The Canadian ensembles are super excited for it. Maybe a little too excited. Calm down, Canada. I want to see the GEFS and the EPS have some lows over PF or into NY, That's when you will know there is a good chance of this one coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Logan11 said: The final event in '56 (Catskills area) was apparently not long before Memorial Day ... according to my Dad. March 56 was epic in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I want to see the GEFS and the EPS have some lows over PF or into NY, That's when you will know there is a good chance of this one coming up the coast. The GEPS are at least more reliable than the operational. That's not saying much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: The GEPS are at least more reliable than the operational. That's not saying much though. Yeah somewhat, But my point is, We want to see some far west members overland on the GEFS and EPS, Not just in the Atlantic right now, We can tighten the cluster when we get in closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I want to see the GEFS and the EPS have some lows over PF or into NY, That's when you will know there is a good chance of this one coming up the coast. #92 on that GEFS map is over me . LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Logan11 said: #92 on that GEFS map is over me . LOL Hoping to get more near you in runs going forward.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: A lot of that is because this would be 3 in a row(Nor'Easters that is) to hit New England in a week in a half.....I think that's why this is getting a lot of attention. Also with regards to the Euro and GFS....which model solution right now fits the pattern/set up best?? It's a pretty decent set up for a system of significance...so one could see why the GFS(at least up to 0z)could make sense. Maybe that's why DT tossed the Euro at this stage/point. GFS sniffed this last one out first..then the Euro jumped on board and eventually schooled it close in when the GFS as it always does, craps on itself. Wow, DT tossing the Euro is a giant red flag. I just wish we could've had this pattern in early February with fresh cold. Could've been Feb '15 quality, assuming this next one plays out to its full potential of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Ridge continues to strengthen on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 lol at the GFS.. looks OTS at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ridge continues to strengthen on this GFS run. ridge looked better.. S/w maybe weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Bostonseminole said: lol at the GFS.. looks OTS at 66 Yeah... it’s not going to be particularly close. strike one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 That southern stream is a train wreck, It has 3 separate pieces of vorticity and strung out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 We whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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