MJO812 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Lol. It's way west of 12z Don't even bother responding to him I have no clue why he's allowed to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Lol. It's way west of 12z Very clear that the 12z run should be farther west... when will all players be sampled? Because I feel not until then the models will not have a good handle on this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 There is an investor , his name is Marc Faber out of Europe He authors a news letter called Boom Doom and Gloom Since 2010 his call EVERY year is for a major stock market correction In that time the market has gone from 10 to 25k Eventually he will be right , but after being wrong for 10 straight years he will never be able to claim he verified because he said the same thing everyday and missed bull market run after bull market run. So toss the drones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Very clear that the 12z run should be farther west... when will all players be sampled? Because I feel not until then the models will not have a good handle on this?? The EPS did the same thing in Jan , it corrected in the SE day 4 , it corrected off OBX by day 3 and finally saw the coastal front and got the BM by day 2 You will need to wait until 12z tomorrow and inside 48 hours for the models to really see the N vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I dont like the look of this currently. Northern stream just squashes this. There's still time for improvements though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Beyond the coming threat, a decent warmup awaits on the 16th.---18th., but with clouds and showers likely. Then a return to Normal with rain chances 23rd.---26th. The 500mb. pattern then looks to flatten out to a borefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 43 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: There is an investor , his name is Marc Faber out of Europe He authors a news letter called Boom Doom and Gloom Since 2010 his call EVERY year is for a major stock market correction In that time the market has gone from 10 to 25k Eventually he will be right , but after being wrong for 10 straight years he will never be able to claim he verified because he said the same thing everyday and missed bull market run after bull market run. So toss the drones I'm quite familiar with him. So far, the proverbial sky hasn't fallen. I believe the last time he was "right" on a market call was during the financial crisis of 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm quite familiar with him. So far, the proverbial sky hasn't fallen. I believe the last time he was "right" on a market call was during the financial crisis of 2008. Yeh Don , he's Marty Zweig reincarnated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 16 hours ago, Rjay said: Ensrmble member 20! Ensmarble 35 last night tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Also it wasn't posted that the 0z UKIE came way west... give it time guys.... I got this feeling but we need to see it continue today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It's hard to get a coastal storm up this way when you have a deep, positively tilted trough. The remnants of our coastal storm from Wednesday are helping to keep the heights low off the East coast. We need that to retrograde faster into Canada and help to pump the ridge. The first image is H5 on the 06z NAM. As you can see, the positioning of the ULL is flattening out the WAR and not allowing the digging trough to turn the corner. In this setup, moving that ULL more NW towards the second X would pump heights over the Atlantic and force the storm more Westward while allowing the trough to dig further Southeast before rounding the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 A third option is that if the ULL simply moved a bit further North, it would allow for some ridging to build in over Northern New England which would create a scenario of energy trying to undercut the block, resulting in a miller B coastal storm. As it stands, the current evolution supports a suppressed and out to sea storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's hard to get a coastal storm up this way when you have a deep, positively tilted trough. The remnants of our coastal storm from Wednesday are helping to keep the heights low off the East coast. We need that to retrograde faster into Canada and help to pump the ridge. The first image is H5 on the 06z NAM. As you can see, the positioning of the ULL is flattening out the WAR and not allowing the digging trough to turn the corner. In this setup, moving that ULL more NW towards the second X would pump heights over the Atlantic and force the storm more Westward while allowing the trough to dig further Southeast before rounding the bend. In theory that can still happen... a lot can change in the next couple of days. Let's see what the 12z runs do today... but with not everything sampled yet the final solution/consensus probably won't be until tomorrow or early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 We need to see some improvements and in a hurry. For example on the 12z NAM, the ULL is weaker, so the confluence to the North is weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: We need to see some improvements and in a hurry. For example on the 12z NAM, the ULL is weaker, so the confluence to the North is weaker as well. So then that would point to an improvement correct? but obviously we would need more of that to keep ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So then that would point to an improvement correct? but obviously we would need more of that to keep ongoing. So far there have been some improvements with regards to the strength and location of the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Even though I don't like showing the NAM past 60 hours - it has corrected north and west since 12 hours ago quite a bit Also slows down the progression of the storm up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Even though I don' like showing the NAM past 60 hours - it has corrected west since 12 hours ago quite a bit Agree, although the low is moving between NE and ENE at 84, which is not good; obviously that can change and just getting the low to that point is improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, RU848789 said: Agree, although the low is moving between NE and ENE at 84, which is not good; obviously that can change and just getting the low to that point is improvement. exactly - the west and north corrections is almost expected now this season - with the blocking up north one has to also wonder if this storm will be delayed and be a slow mover as it fights to move north -12z GFS should be interesting again unless it decides to lose the storm which wouldn't be surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Even though I don't like showing the NAM past 60 hours - it has corrected north and west since 12 hours ago quite a bit Also slows down the progression of the storm up the coastIt isnt the mid range solutions that should be focused on (this model is N with the storm at 84 hours, this model is S with the storm, etc) but rather the subtleties in the short term that keep emerging yielding vastly different results past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Even though I don't like showing the NAM past 60 hours - it has corrected north and west since 12 hours ago quite a bit Also slows down the progression of the storm up the coast It isnt the mid range solutions that should be focused on (this model is N with the storm at 84 hours, this model is S with the storm, etc) but rather the subtleties in the short term that keep emerging yielding vastly different results past 48 hours. take a look at the 500mb - it is further north then the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Huge short term changes as energy is just beginning to get sampled as it comes into better data regions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 take a look at the 500mb - it is further north then the previous runThats my point.....BIG changes in the short term are yielding wildly different results and swings model to model. Now that data is just going to start getting sampled better this N shift may become more of a trend/reality. Could be hiccup too.....admittedly my confidence in final outcome is lower than usual but these sr changes are worth paying attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Canadian ENS were really amped up.... I am definitely leaning more towards #3 hitting us than I was yesterday at this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ICON coming in much stronger and closer although not close enough...yet. 980 low compared to 994 at hour 105. Keep the trend coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It goes ENE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, PuraVida said: ICON coming in much stronger and closer although not close enough...yet. 980 low compared to 994 at hour 105. Keep the trend coming. IMO I would rather see a trend continue rather then a full correction for a nice hit because then it could just be discounted as a bad run and not really a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It goes ENE from there This could be the time where the GFS goes into lala land where the other models take the cake... something to keep an eye on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Not enough separation from our previous storm, should be a nice surprise for the lower/central Mid-Atlantic. I'd give it another 24 hrs though. Gfs has been waffling a lot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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