powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks pretty good. There will def be a little less in SE NH...midlevels warm there quickly. But it's gonna remain below freezing at the surface. It's like there was two different things going on in today's discussion. Some were correlating the low track with more snowfall while some where merely looking at it from a SFC temp standpoint. I think that's where a lot of the confusion is from. The discussion was purely from a surface temp standpoint. The surface low won't do anything to the mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks pretty good. There will def be a little less in SE NH...midlevels warm there quickly. But it's gonna remain below freezing at the surface. My opinion (and I realize it's the minority one in a Board like this) is that both CEF and ORH go over to rain for a couple hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's like there was two different things going on in today's discussion. Some were correlating the low track with more snowfall while some where merely looking at it from a SFC temp standpoint. I think that's where a lot of the confusion is from. The discussion was purely from a surface temp standpoint. The surface low won't do anything to the mid level warmth. Correct. Midlevels have always been in question. That's why we're not getting 8" of snow along the pike. Prob 3-5ish instead. But changing to a 38F driving rainstorm and staying ZR is a huge sensible wx difference and that's why we're are obsessing over the sfc low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's like there was two different things going on in today's discussion. Some were correlating the low track with more snowfall while some where merely looking at it from a SFC temp standpoint. I think that's where a lot of the confusion is from. The discussion was purely from a surface temp standpoint. The surface low won't do anything to the mid level warmth. Really dont see 6" anywhere in SNE. Even by Ash. Beleive me im Happy its snowing, snow is xtra$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Really dont see 6" anywhere in SNE. Even by Ash. Beleive me im Happy its snowing, snow is xtra$ I could see 6"+ up in far N ORH county over to NW MA. That doesn't seem all that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Really dont see 6" anywhere in SNE. Even by Ash. Beleive me im Happy its snowing, snow is xtra$ See I think you're going to see a fairly sharp gradient somewhere there and climb tends to make me believe it'll be near RT 2. Like Hubb Daves area back towards Hippy. A zone where it goes from a bunch of 4/5 inch amounts near and north of the Pike to 8/9/10 inch amounts over a relatively short distance up near the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: See I think you're going to see a fairly sharp gradient somewhere there and climb tends to make me believe it'll be near RT 2. Like Hubb Daves area back towards Hippy. A zone where it goes from a bunch of 4/5 inch amounts near and north of the Pike to 8/9/10 inch amounts over a relatively short distance up near the MA/NH border. You’re going to see 1-3” amounts .. mostly 2” from SW CT to TAN.. with even CC getting an inch. HFD - IJD 3”.. 4” here and then NW of HFD 5”+. Then an hour of sleet and 3-6 hours of zr. I’m seeing circles talking tons of sleet . This isn’t a big sleet setup. It’s a pretty rapid transition once it takes place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re going to see 1-3” amounts .. mostly 2” from SW CT to TAN.. with even CC getting an inch. HFD - IJD 3”.. 4” here and then NW of HFD 5”+. Then an hour of sleet and 3-6 hours of zr. I’m seeing circles talking tons of sleet . This isn’t a big sleet setup. It’s a pretty rapid transition once it takes place I agree actually that the sleet is short lived in SNE. The warm layer is pretty low. Not classic 750-800 with a frigid 900-950 layer. This is gonna go to ZR fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re going to see 1-3” amounts .. mostly 2” from SW CT to TAN.. with even CC getting an inch. HFD - IJD 3”.. 4” here and then NW of HFD 5”+. Then an hour of sleet and 3-6 hours of zr. I’m seeing circles talking tons of sleet . This isn’t a big sleet setup. It’s a pretty rapid transition once it takes place Yeah I don't disagree with any of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Dont you have a dog or 40 to walk Lol sick pups galore, no fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree actually that the sleet is short lived in SNE. The warm layer is pretty low. Not classic 750-800 with a frigid 900-950 layer. This is gonna go to ZR fairly quickly. I was wondering if the transition to ZR and models showing a large area of ZR causes many to warm up a bit more than they normally would in this case. Could see a large area of 31-32F from latent heat release when a sleet storm would've stayed in the upper 20s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree actually that the sleet is short lived in SNE. The warm layer is pretty low. Not classic 750-800 with a frigid 900-950 layer. This is gonna go to ZR fairly quickly. think those at 1k stay sleet longer than those at 200 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Here is my best shot at it. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/2-7-complex-wintery-mess-final-call.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: think those at 1k stay sleet longer than those at 200 ft Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I was wondering if the transition to ZR and models showing a large area of ZR causes many to warm up a bit more than they normally would in this case. Could see a large area of 31-32F from latent heat release when a sleet storm would've stayed in the upper 20s? Yeah that's possible. The latent heat from ZR will try and warm the sfc once it gets going. Could be lots of rotting 31-32 temps by evening...though if we get a mesolow to form then it could resupply the 20s dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 00z NAM went the other way. SLP track cuts W of BDL and ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: think those at 1k stay sleet longer than those at 200 ft That doesn't make sense to me. 200ft has a longer residence time in the sub-freezing. Like we often have freezing rain at the summit but sleet in the base area due to the extra sub-freezing column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 NAM looks great for ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Looks like the 00z Nam is running this up through the Poconos, Catskills lol, Inclined to be a bit cautious with the snowfall but hold the line on Zr here, I've seen to many times when we rotted just below freezing around here. Probably 2-3 Springfield/Enfield with a decent glaze. Perhaps Kevin is 3-3.5 with some glaze but hits 33-34 for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 00z NAM went the other way. SLP track cuts W of BDL and ORH. NAM gone wild up here. Leave it to the NAM to have twice as much moisture than the other models up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 00z NAM went the other way. SLP track cuts W of BDL and ORH. Tossed. The NAM to me is like shoveling coal into the steam engine...each run is another pile to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: NAM gone wild up here. Foot plus for the SE dacks Gore to the Face and up into NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tossed. The NAM to me is like shoveling coal into the steam engine...each run is another pile to shovel. Coal was not what i had in mind, But you still needed a shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Tossed. The NAM to me is like shoveling coal into the steam engine...each run is another pile to shovel. Keeps us looking at it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tossed. The NAM to me is like shoveling coal into the steam engine...each run is another pile to shovel. I agree. I think the Low tracks either over L.I or near HVN to south of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Foot plus for the SE dacks Gore to the Face and up into NNE It's wrong. Not even close to the other models with that output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Keeps us looking at it though. Models are def entertaining in CAD situations. We will see which ones did well and which ones didn't by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Its the only piece of guidance that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That doesn't make sense to me. 200ft has a longer residence time in the sub-freezing. Like we often have freezing rain at the summit but sleet in the base area due to the extra sub-freezing column. Lol from 4 k to 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Nammy being Nammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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