dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 We are going to have to start seeing some of these OP runs show something a little more in a positive way for tues soon to make this a viable threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are going to have to start seeing some of these OP runs show something a little more in a positive way for tues soon to make this a viable threat. Can say the same for next weekend too although that is obviously la-la land at this point. Tues seems to be slipping away to trivial, I'll give it until Saturday 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: We are going to have to start seeing some of these OP runs show something a little more in a positive way for tues soon to make this a viable threat. MEHX will save us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Can say the same for next weekend too although that is obviously la-la land at this point. Tues seems to be slipping away to trivial, I'll give it until Saturday 12z runs. It’s mainly Monday into Mon Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: MEHX will save us all. I saw the numbers for here earlier this am, We shall see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: I saw the numbers for here earlier this am, We shall see about that. It's a 4 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's a 4 down here. 1+6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I don’t think I’ve ever used those numbers. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don’t think I’ve ever used those numbers. Ever. Not sure how one would "use" the numbers other than they're an indicator of the model output in relation to the historical climate. Correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Euro being the ugliest of the all the models is't a good sign, but still, it's not THAT far off from being something half-decent. We don't want to regress today though....the better data sampling starts tonight and esp tomorrow at 12z...so we still want to be in the game by then. If we get big regressions at 12z, that isn't good. LAst night's Ukie was prob the best solution out of the credible models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I use them more to see a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not sure how one would "use" the numbers other than they're an indicator of the model output in relation to the historical climate. Correct me if I am wrong. Well anything can be used if used correctly. What I mean is I’ve never used them in a forecast situation. Anyways NAM would make many happy. That’s a mid level magic over SNE with great H7-H5 fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 12z Nam @hr84 was not bad, But we know how that goes, Was not far from something better though, But we have said this over the last couple days with most guidance, We need one of these models to throw us a bone........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 That 12z NAM run is a good baseline for what I'm looking at for a verification with this. Not that the NAM is out-performing here or anything - I just think other (more reliable) guidance will trend toward that solution over time, and the NAM will do what the NAM does, probably showing a cutter, HECS and everything in between on subsequent runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 10 hours ago, ice1972 said: That asshat elongated stretched out POS look has been a constant this season on the LR modelling this season.....it doesn't end up that way but there is something making the models stretch and shred systems as they turn the corner in our neighborhood.....just an anecdote but its a look that has bothered me all season........the look is irritating and a symptom of a larger problem with the season where it can't seem to figure out how to produce a decent snowpack........ Ha...nice description. It's absolutely true, even in the Midwest...and it's maddening. Chicago has only had 10" of snow this season and an incredibly low # of SDD's, and it won't change for the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well anything can be used if used correctly. What I mean is I’ve never used them in a forecast situation. Anyways NAM would make many happy. That’s a mid level magic over SNE with great H7-H5 fronto. That would be a thumper-dumper verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Gfs is trying to set something up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Should be a better 12z GFS run, Looks like its going to be west of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 thats a big shift nw of gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Quite a bit West of the 06z run actually, This is the step we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Good step there. Was very evident early on at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Trough was sharper this run, Stronger s/w at the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good step there. Was very evident early on at 500 That's a mid-level magic look....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 12z GGEM was a few tics west as well from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Well 3 for 3 in terms of decent looks. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Snowy day Monday into night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 They all have a nice look in the mid-levels too...probably a good weenie band or two somewhere over the eastern half of SNE on that...we'll see if we can back that in to the west a little more. Wouldn't surprise me. The shortwave is coming in better this run and this suite may have the very first hints of it on the 12z RAOB data....the energy itself is offshore still but the heights immediately downstream of it are coming ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Nice way to run a cutter on the GFS for late next week....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 We snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Its a bomb on the GGEM next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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