40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, kdxken said: I wasn't referring to the weather. Anyway, internet squabbles are pointless. I'll try and hold my tongue in the future. BTW, the work on your blog is first rate and I am sure required considerable effort. Maybe don't push so hard? I was about to say...sorry if I have offended you at some point, but I think I've been pretty modest this season. Def. can come off the wrong way at times...work in progress, but I still have alot to learn and credit the folks on this board that I have learned from every chance I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Bigfoot said: Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks like another run at 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 35 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Looks like another run at 60s. Yup. You'd think we live in New England. Good snowstorm, thaw, cool down, snow, rinse and repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Yeah big time torch for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 But afterward, it looks rather active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But afterward, it looks rather active. How is it shaping up for the last week of Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Modfan said: How is it shaping up for the last week of Jan? Riding the boundary. Looks active, but not sure of the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I don’t know. Next weekends warm up doesn’t look to be as severe as this past one. At least for the majority of New England anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I don’t know. Next weekends warm up doesn’t look to be as severe as this past one. At least for the majority of New England anyway. Looks warm to me. 558 thicknesses 8C at 850? We torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Signs that the thaw is not a 10 day deal right thru months end? Maybe back into winter by 24th and 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Signs that the thaw is not a 10 day deal right thru months end? Maybe back into winter by 24th and 25th? Could be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 And it could be warmer than that .. . at least, the GEFs derived teleconnectors would allow for more. In fact, I'd almost argue that operational runs are fairly midland as far as amplitude, relative to these present indicators. Can't say anything for the ECMWF - based products, because I still cannot get Google to actually liberate a URL that offers any kind of NAO, EPO, WPO, AO, or PNA index computation based upon any EPS forecast system. I'm sure they're out there; just have to keep wading through the seething waste deep sea of greedy feces called Humanity. It's amazing, ... if a tooth pick could make a buck, the internet would stop a third world poverty stricken nation from building straw huts... Anyway, I'm not a huge fan of the MJO. It was over-applied to middle and extended range assessment techniques from circa 1995 through 2008 or so... Then I noticed a waning in the practice of mentioning it in the general ambit of on-going discussions and conjecture. It's hard to know why that is, whether it's because people are far less than perfect machinery when it comes to using tools, and still fall back into popularity traps over the "school of what's happenin' now" with x-y-z ... Or, if perhaps unilaterally people have since realized that things happen regardless of what phase it is in ..? I tend to 'hope' it is the latter, because I have noticed that myself over the years. The MJO can either positively enforce hemispheric wave distribution, ...or negatively, but it does not determine it. Therein, should the greater circulation construct and on-going maelstrom really be in destructive wave interference, the MJO almost doesn't mean crap. However, if the former is circulation type is in agreement with certain MJO wave spaces, that can enhance the former further and add amplitude. That's what I've come to find for the MJO, and that is seems that folks don't really realize it's conditional. Having said that primer. ... now is one of those times where it may in fact be conditionally more applicable...positively reinforcing. The late phase 3 ...then meandering in various wave potency on through 6 over the next 10 days if not two weeks, here is the correlation on the temperature distribution across N/A during this time of year: I don't wanna get into the significance of these (statistical math) ... it is what it is... but, just on a cursory level, the present phases of the MJO and forecasted out through D10 are moving through phase 4 through 6... ...Then applying this to the recent WPO, EPO ... and probably of more importance, the PNA, ... the complexion of these present teleconnectors supports a warmer look even without the MJO contribution The EPO ...that's new? Or at least relatively so.. In my own going checking of these indexes daily, I've noticed that it is neutralized lately, but was positive in prior nightly runs ... while the PNA (left) was also negative. Those two in that particular mode convergence ... heh, ends winter. At least for a time. However, should the EPO fall off like that... while the negative PNA is strong there, and it it could be that we see an undercut flow type tendency. With 'tendency' for block at very high latitudes with a Pac jet arriving into mid-latitudes of N/A. We're talking over the two weeks ... Such a configuration, as others have alluded .. would probably herald an active pattern ... with N/S or at least less skill saying just about anything else about it. I would add, however, ..as Will and I were discussing the other night, we really seem to be in a " -EPO era" as far as blocking sequencing. In 1990s it was all about the NAO ...etc.. Can't buy and NAO it seems ... probably since 2004 or so... other than fleeting inconsequence. Anyway... over recent winters, the EPO seems to want to pop up at least excuse imagined, so, I'm a little leery based on trend alone, to discount the EPO suddenly making an appearance if it means f'n up a perfectly good outlook...haha. But excluding that breath of hope for winter enthusiasts... The MJO would appear to be in a constructive wave interference with the mid latitude Pacific, and that may just be the overwhelming signal in all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Next weekends torch has been ebbing and flowing on guidance for a few days. A couple days ago it ebbed and looked kind of meh....maybe one day of dry upper 40s to near 50 ...now it looks like we slow down the system in the central conus and prolong it for an extra day or two. Don't think it will rival this past one in terms of prolonged dew points though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And it could be warmer than that .. . at least, the GEFs derived teleconnectors would allow for more. In fact, I'd almost argue that operational runs are fairly midland as far as amplitude, relative to these present indicators. Can't say anything for the ECMWF - based products, because I still cannot get Google to actually liberate a URL that offers any kind of NAO, EPO, WPO, AO, or PNA index computation based upon any EPS forecast system. I'm sure they're out there; just have to keep wading through the seething waste deep sea of greedy feces called Humanity. It's amazing, ... if a tooth pick could make a buck, the internet would stop a third world poverty stricken nation from building straw huts... Anyway, I'm not a huge fan of the MJO. It was over-applied to middle and extended range assessment techniques from circa 1995 through 2008 or so... Then I noticed a waning in the practice of mentioning it in the general ambit of on-going discussions and conjecture. It's hard to know why that is, whether it's because people are far less than perfect machinery when it comes to using tools, and still fall back into popularity traps over the "school of what's happenin' now" with x-y-z ... Or, if perhaps unilaterally people have since realized that things happen regardless of what phase it is in ..? I tend to 'hope' it is the latter, because I have noticed that myself over the years. The MJO can either positively enforce hemispheric wave distribution, ...or negatively, but it does not determine it. Therein, should the greater circulation construct and on-going maelstrom really be in destructive wave interference, the MJO almost doesn't mean crap. However, if the former is circulation type is in agreement with certain MJO wave spaces, that can enhance the former further and add amplitude. That's what I've come to find for the MJO, and that is seems that folks don't really realize it's conditional. Having said that primer. ... now is one of those times where it may in fact be conditionally more applicable...positively reinforcing. The late phase 3 ...then meandering in various wave potency on through 6 over the next 10 days if not two weeks, here is the correlation on the temperature distribution across N/A during this time of year: I don't wanna get into the significance of these (statistical math) ... it is what it is... but, just on a cursory level, the present phases of the MJO and forecasted out through D10 are moving through phase 4 through 6... ...Then applying this to the recent WPO, EPO ... and probably of more importance, the PNA, ... the complexion of these present teleconnectors supports a warmer look even without the MJO contribution The EPO ...that's new? Or at least relatively so.. In my own going checking of these indexes daily, I've noticed that it is neutralized lately, but was positive in prior nightly runs ... while the PNA (left) was also negative. Those two in that particular mode convergence ... heh, ends winter. At least for a time. However, should the EPO fall off like that... while the negative PNA is strong there, and it it could be that we see an undercut flow type tendency. With 'tendency' for block at very high latitudes with a Pac jet arriving into mid-latitudes of N/A. We're talking over the two weeks ... Such a configuration, as others have alluded .. would probably herald an active pattern ... with N/S or at least less skill saying just about anything else about it. I would add, however, ..as Will and I were discussing the other night, we really seem to be in a " -EPO era" as far as blocking sequencing. In 1990s it was all about the NAO ...etc.. Can't buy and NAO it seems ... probably since 2004 or so... other than fleeting inconsequence. Anyway... over recent winters, the EPO seems to want to pop up at least excuse imagined, so, I'm a little leery based on trend alone, to discount the EPO suddenly making an appearance if it means f'n up a perfectly good outlook...haha. But excluding that breath of hope for winter enthusiasts... The MJO would appear to be in a constructive wave interference with the mid latitude Pacific, and that may just be the overwhelming signal in all this. Longest post in both board history. Almost a full page. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Longest post in both board history. Almost a full page. Congrats it wasn't really directed/intended toward/for folks that can't comprehend ... or those that typically elide responsible reasoning in lieu of abusing the internet for their personal bullschit tho - As much as you fantasize that you are succeeding single-handedly at converting the internet into the immoral wild-west ... there are those that remember the good old days of informative posts that supplied scientific understanding and evidentiary product sourcing ... You just happen to not be one those - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: it wasn't really directed/intended toward/for folks that can't comprehend ... or those that typically elide responsible reasoning in lieu of abusing the internet for their personal bullschit tho - As much as you fantasize that you are succeeding single-handedly at converting the internet into the immoral wild-west ... there are those that remember the good old days of informative posts that supplied scientific understanding and evidentiary product sourcing ... You just happen to not be one those - Tip, you seem like a smart and pithy fellow, but honestly your posts are so superfluously dense with esoteric language and masturbatory verbosity that it edges on hieroglyphic to those more green such as I. Which is why I post like this n it's more fun n stuff!!! Have some fun bro! Anyways, looks like we'll tickle 60 a couple days perhaps with rain then go to a seasonably volatile end o' January pattern. Ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Longest post in both board history. Almost a full page. Congrats Beyond rude! Anonymity of the internet brings out the true jerk in so many. Sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: Beyond rude! Anonymity of the internet brings out the true jerk in so many. Sad! The jerk store called and they ran out of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Longest post in both board history. Almost a full page. Congrats And you quoted the entire thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: it wasn't really directed/intended toward/for folks that can't comprehend ... or those that typically elide responsible reasoning in lieu of abusing the internet for their personal bullschit tho - As much as you fantasize that you are succeeding single-handedly at converting the internet into the immoral wild-west ... there are those that remember the good old days of informative posts that supplied scientific understanding and evidentiary product sourcing ... You just happen to not be one those - Thank you for the edifying post, Tip. With the PNA collapsing and the EPO going positive for the intermediate future, it would indeed suggest a warmer, Pacific-driven period is in the offing. I, for one, encourage you to continue posts of this quality, and keep the material as high-brow as possible. I learn more reading your, Will's, Scott's, Ryan's, Oceanstate's and OSUmetstud's posts than I could pick up in year of atmospheric science classes. If we are to fetishize verbal gymnastics, as Lurkeylad suggests, this is a far preferable form of onania to brief, panic-stricken conjecture about possible torches in week four. Soldier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The jerk store called and they ran out of you! The jerk store called you too, but since the call came in at 830 pm you were already asleep. Sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Tip, you seem like a smart and pithy fellow, but honestly your posts are so superfluously dense with esoteric language and masturbatory verbosity that it edges on hieroglyphic to those more green such as I. Which is why I post like this n it's more fun n stuff!!! Have some fun bro! Anyways, looks like we'll tickle 60 a couple days perhaps with rain then go to a seasonably volatile end o' January pattern. Ya? "..Masturbatory verbosity .." not sure what f you mean by that, but where can I get some ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Y'all are fortunate to have so many meteorologists actively posting in the New England forum. Don't take it for granted. Tip writes well beyond my comprehension, but that's because I don't understand meteorology as much as I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said: The jerk store called you too, but since the call came in at 830 pm you were already asleep. Sad! You’re new here so we give you benefit of doubt. We all go way back and have met each other multiple times and are friends. It was a good natured joke. You may have missed it , but I was the one who expressed dire concern for John’s health and whereabouts when he went missing over the holidays. Perhaps instead of jumping to conclusions , you should ask and yearn to understand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The weatherman was angry that day my friends...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The weatherman was angry that day my friends...... Like an old man trying to return soup at a deli... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The weatherman was angry that day my friends...... He was not master of his domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Seems like the ridge out west has been gradually shifting west over the last six or so runs of the Euro. Heights on the Atlantic side are rising slightly. Not sure it will make any difference with that system coming into the NW and knocking down the ridge, but it's a pretty solid look early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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