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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We are going to have to start seeing some of these OP runs show something a little more in a positive way for tues soon to make this a viable threat.

Can say the same for next weekend too although that is obviously la-la land at this point.   Tues seems to be slipping away to trivial, I'll give it until Saturday 12z runs. 

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Euro being the ugliest of the all the models is't a good sign, but still, it's not THAT far off from being something half-decent. We don't want to regress today though....the better data sampling starts tonight and esp tomorrow at 12z...so we still want to be in the game by then. If we get big regressions at 12z, that isn't good.

 

LAst night's Ukie was prob the best solution out of the credible models.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not sure how one would "use" the numbers other than they're an indicator of the model output in relation to the historical climate.  Correct me if I am wrong.

Well anything can be used if used correctly. What I mean is I’ve never used them in a forecast situation. 

Anyways NAM would make many happy. That’s a mid level magic over SNE with great H7-H5 fronto.

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That 12z NAM run is a good baseline for what I'm looking at for a verification with this.  Not that the NAM is out-performing here or anything - I just think other (more reliable) guidance will trend toward that solution over time, and the NAM will do what the NAM does, probably showing a cutter, HECS and everything in between on subsequent runs...

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10 hours ago, ice1972 said:

That asshat elongated stretched out POS look has been a constant this season on the LR modelling this season.....it doesn't end up that way but there is something making the models stretch and shred systems as they turn the corner in our neighborhood.....just an anecdote but its a look that has bothered me all season........the look is irritating and a symptom of a larger problem with the season where it can't seem to figure out how to produce a decent snowpack........

Ha...nice description.  It's absolutely true, even in the Midwest...and it's maddening. 

Chicago has only had 10" of snow this season and an incredibly low # of SDD's, and it won't change for the next 7 days.

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They all have a nice look in the mid-levels too...probably a good weenie band or two somewhere over the eastern half of SNE on that...we'll see if we can back that in to the west a little more. Wouldn't surprise me. The shortwave is coming in better this run and this suite may have the very first hints of it on the 12z RAOB data....the energy itself is offshore still but the heights immediately downstream of it are coming ashore.

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