January 12-14 Kitchen Sink Storm Discussion

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what the appeal is for most of SNE....pretty standard heavy, rainy thaw, followed by frontal passage and flash freeze.

No icing of any consequence outside of n ORH co and the Berkshires...even that is dicey.

Travel hazards will come from flash freeze.

 

I know the usual suspects are about to besiege me with various snapshots of model output, but it just isn't happening imo.

Love to be wrong-

 Perfect. Nice assessment, gives me peace of mind to head north this weekend and not worry about power issues at my house.   Hopefully I can wake up Saturday morning to some fresh snow in North Conway.

[Whineminster]

Man this is all over the place, we don't know if we're getting ratty rain or a big dog ice storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Perfect. Nice assessment, gives me peace of mind to head north this weekend and not worry about power issues at my house.   Hopefully I can wake up Saturday morning to some fresh snow in North Conway.

I mean, low level cold can be sneaky, so maybe I'm wrong....but 9/10 times the precip is out like a shot even faster than anticipated in relation to the frontal passage.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure what the appeal is for most of SNE....pretty standard heavy, rainy thaw, followed by frontal passage and flash freeze.

No icing of any consequence outside of n ORH co and the Berkshires...even that is dicey.

Travel hazards will come from flash freeze.

 

I know the usual suspects are about to besiege me with various snapshots of model output, but it just isn't happening imo.

Love to be wrong-

Sorry but you are wrong. The freeze is into W a C SNE well before dawn with several hours of zr. You’re area is meh correct 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Not loving the track on the nam or gfs

A nw tickle from earlier tracks and precipitation heading out faster.

Cuts across SNE with cold holding out a tad longer for rte 2.

This is the trend i saw today on those 2 , no idea what UKIE,  Euro were doing but 35f (temps) in concord nh at 12z sounds like crap

So we see freezing drizzle and cold air 

Whoop

Need this to trend over s coast

Don't do this to yourself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry but you are wrong. The freeze is into W a C SNE well before dawn with several hours of zr. You’re area is meh correct 

Please post pics of your ice encased tree branches on Saturday PM.

Should be cool to see.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry but you are wrong. The freeze is into W a C SNE well before dawn with several hours of zr. You’re area is meh correct 

Sell. Enjoy the flash freeze like the rest of us... we await pics of Swiss cheese pack and re frozen snowbanks at the end of the Street.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please post pics of your ice encased tree branches on Saturday PM.

Should be cool to see.

I love when coastal folks try to tell people what their wx will be 

Assuming there is no ice within the column, colder air undercutting
quickly with favorable lift / ascent aloft prior to dry air eroding
the column, looking at a roughly 3-6 hour window of freezing rain /
drizzle over N/W interior S New England, roughly interior Essex
County MA, Worcester and Tolland Hills. There is the potential of
reaching the I-95 corridor, some uncertainty on the speed at which
colder

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love when coastal folks try to tell people what their wx will be 

Why so much hostility?

If you ice, you ice...relax.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sell. Enjoy the flash freeze like the rest of us... we await pics of Swiss cheese pack and re frozen snowbanks at the end of the Street.

He nailed the blizzard well in advance, so perhaps we should keep letting him tell us what his weather will be.

I think there was a snowstorm a few days after that that he was all over, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love when coastal folks try to tell people what their wx will be 

Assuming there is no ice within the column, colder air undercutting
quickly with favorable lift / ascent aloft prior to dry air eroding
the column, looking at a roughly 3-6 hour window of freezing rain /
drizzle over N/W interior S New England, roughly interior Essex
County MA, Worcester and Tolland Hills. There is the potential of
reaching the I-95 corridor, some uncertainty on the speed at which
colder

I don't think anyone is doubting a period of freezing drizzle to conclude the event.

Very slippery, but there should not be much accretion.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He nailed the blizzard well in advance, so perhaps we should keep letting him tell us what his weather will be.

Lol.. maybe. In all seriousness, this has looked like a non starter for SNE for a few days now, I think people are grasping at straws.

[CT Rain]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sorry but you are wrong. The freeze is into W a C SNE well before dawn with several hours of zr. You’re area is meh correct 

Have you moved the goal posts from ice storm to flash freeze?

Just trying to keep track. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Have you moved the goal posts from ice storm to flash freeze?

Just trying to keep track. 

I’ve always had zr pre daybreak to sleet ending as snow. Everything points to that. No damage .. just a winters fat Saturday for our area 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He nailed the blizzard well in advance, so perhaps we should keep letting him tell us what his weather will be.

I think there was a snowstorm a few days after that that he was all over, too.

Will  we continue to hear about your outlook and you talking about yourself and that’s what your forecast did or didn’t have?

[dendrite]

This seems like one of those setups where the surface cold easily pours into WNE/VT and then it briefly gets hung up west of the mtns until it oozes through the valleys or mixes down as 850/925 cools. So it looks much more impressive for PF and Mitch than us easterners (albeit still impressive overall). It was cool to see the 2m progression with this on the Swiss run I saw earlier.

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This seems like one of those setups where the surface cold easily pours into WNE/VT and then it briefly gets hung up west of the mtns until it oozes through the valleys or mixes down as 850/925 cools. So it looks much more impressive for PF and Mitch than us easterners (albeit still impressive overall). It was cool to see the 2m progression with this on the Swiss run I saw earlier.

Seconded.

[OceanStWx]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve always had zr pre daybreak to sleet ending as snow. Everything points to that. No damage .. just a winters fat Saturday for our area 

It would be a neat trick to get much snow when the column dries out so fast. Better luck keeping hours of freezing drizzle than accumulating snow.

[snowgeek]

Should be pretty interesting here in the Hudson Valley. Low level cold usually moves in pretty quick here in these types of setups.


.

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Should be pretty interesting here in the Hudson Valley. Low level cold usually moves in pretty quick here in these types of setups.


.

Does not look interesting precip is mostly gone by the time we cool, it's a western NY storm and a long time coming for them

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Does not look interesting precip is mostly gone by the time we cool, it's a western NY storm and a long time coming for them

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

[snowgeek]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Does not look interesting precip is mostly gone by the time we cool, it's a western NY storm and a long time coming for them

Dude, your idea of interesting must be pretty narrow.  I'm expecting 50's tomorrow afternoon and then 20's when I wake up Saturday morning.  I'm expecting a little freezing rain followed by a decent period of sleet and then maybe an inch of snow as the temps plummet and everything freezes solid.  Sure I'd prefer a foot of snow, but to me it definitely looks interesting.  It's always fun to see low level cold ooze in as mid levels still torch.  Enjoy the storm.....it's the only storm you got.

[snowgeek]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

Sounds wintry to me.  Sleet and temps nose diving = wintry to me.  Tough audience.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will  we continue to hear about your outlook and you talking about yourself and that’s what your forecast did or didn’t have?

Should I make a thinly veiled attempt at doing just that by substituting "I" for "we"?

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Sounds wintry to me.  Sleet and temps nose diving = wintry to me.  Tough audience.

Sleet doesn't really whiten up the landscape for me. It's going to be cold and the precip will be frozen though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Have you moved the goal posts from ice storm to flash freeze?

Just trying to keep track. 

Classic Kevin...

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

Yes the temp drop is nice and all but sensible weather is two hours of IP with a coating

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Sounds wintry to me.  Sleet and temps nose diving = wintry to me.  Tough audience.

It will be winter from Buffalo to Syracuse

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Dude, your idea of interesting must be pretty narrow.  I'm expecting 50's tomorrow afternoon and then 20's when I wake up Saturday morning.  I'm expecting a little freezing rain followed by a decent period of sleet and then maybe an inch of snow as the temps plummet and everything freezes solid.  Sure I'd prefer a foot of snow, but to me it definitely looks interesting.  It's always fun to see low level cold ooze in as mid levels still torch.  Enjoy the storm.....it's the only storm you got.

I'm expecting my 15 inches of snow on the ground to melt, first time seeing grass since November, the temp drop doesn't do much for me unless we had the precip, which we don't. I'm pretty depressed about it this will take a good week to recover at the mountains

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

3km NAM slams ALB down 10C in an hour just after 00z. You could spend a while below freezing, but the problem is that the sounding is more PL than anything else. No fun to drive in, but otherwise it won't seem very wintry.

Just realized it was the 3km NAM I was looking at and not the Swiss. Looks cool with the low level cold pouring around the Presidentials leaving IZG/N Conway briefly in a warm bubble.