Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: #manstorm Regression may be inevitable...BUT NOT FREAKING YET!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Question for a Mod: With this approaching 100 pages, are you going to start a new thread to cover the remaining model runs before go-time? Nah, let's roll with this one thru today and transition into the Obs/Nowcast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ 24 wv is just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nah, let's roll with this one thru today and transition into the Obs/Nowcast tomorrow. keep the good juju going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Maybe this is weenie goggles, but does this look like it's going neg-tilt early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My fave ARW2 is a pounding for everyone up to Freaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Models are clueless with this. Look how the HRRR has it. Dual lows all fighting. I see why it's doing this, but the outcome on who wins is rather important.As I mentioned before . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thats a great look Hoth but need OceanWaves to analyze it.....and hes sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My fave ARW2 is a pounding for everyone up to Freaky. I'l take my 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 In the fwiw dept, 09z SREFS is a couple tics west of the 03z run, Not as juiced as the 03z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Liking how guidance has trended completely away from that double qpf max; one near the SE/Mid Atlantic and the second near eastern SNE. We lost the former, and now see a steady increase in the qpf amounts as the system intensifies with latitude. Everything coming together in the end to look like a bonafide mega Nor Easter passing just east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats a great look Hoth but need OceanWaves to analyze it.....and hes sleeping. Yeah I'm sure he was a busy boy last night. Found this little tidbit from a NWS discussion down south: "As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: In the fwiw dept, 09z SREFS is a couple tics west of the 03z run. Dog or Deer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Dog or Deer? Deer, Better get it checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res RGEM and 3km NAM both have coastal Cumberland county stuck between dual axis bands. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 My fave ARW2 is a pounding for everyone up to Freaky.What are the ARW models exactly and how reliable are they?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: What are the ARW models exactly and how reliable are they? . Nam cores. Just another tool, not to be used in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam cores. Just another tool, not to be used in a vacuum. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Check out this look at 250 mb. Can really see how this thing intensifies so quickly. Great venting to the north. Upper divergence perhaps implies wider precip shield? Not sure which is more important, tightly wrapped core or upper level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: What are the ARW models exactly and how reliable are they? . Not much but when west folks need a crutch, we lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hoth said: Maybe this is weenie goggles, but does this look like it's going neg-tilt early? Use the spc mesoanalysis page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah I'm sure he was a busy boy last night. Found this little tidbit from a NWS discussion down south: "As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models." This has been on a relentless trend to Deepen early, i guess this can deepen to 930 near key largo And still somehow Crush us with strengthening mid levels /we kid or do do we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not much but when west folks need a crutch, we lean. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Most important NAM run of our lives is now running. Let the 12z runs begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 SREF's catch a lot of justified criticism for late stage caves. I'm one of those critics. The 9z run was about that time you'd start to expect a cave, so I do take it quite positively that it doubled down by being slightly west of its previous run so late in the game.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: should come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: East tickle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: East tickle? the ridge out west looks better imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Initial hunch on the 12z Nam is it will be at least slightly west of 6z based on PNA ridge further west and more amped and south stream shortwave slightly more negative, with better cross-stream interaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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