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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco 2


WxUSAF

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33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS solidly in option 1 still. Doh. Backed off some on the SE ridge though so a slight trend in the right direction. Overall the run says be patient and don't get excited for winter wx until after Christmas. 

It is, but still trended to weaken both the SW trough and the SE ridge relative to 0z.  CWG's latest article on white Christmas showed the 0z percentage of 1" of snow depth at 12z on the 25th.  With the horrid 500mb look on the 0z EPS, it still had us WAY above climo for a white Christmas, with 40-50% for DC/Baltimore area.  

In any case, I really like a broad CONUS trough/gradient pattern if we can actually get into that and be on the happy side.  

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That image isn't the best to describe Cold Air Damming.  Here are a few resources to help illustrate the point betteR:

Awesome, thanks!

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It is, but still trended to weaken both the SW trough and the SE ridge relative to 0z.  CWG's latest article on white Christmas showed the 0z percentage of 1" of snow depth at 12z on the 25th.  With the horrid 500mb look on the 0z Euro, it still had us WAY above climo for a white Christmas, with 40-50% for DC/Baltimore area.  

In any case, I really like a broad CONUS trough/gradient pattern if we can actually get into that and be on the happy side.  

I like the broad trough too. MUCH more room to amplify something versus where we've been the last week or so. The expansive cold showing up is pretty impressive too. 

I have mixed emotions about everything because being warm or rainy on Christmas has become tiresome. OTOH- it's only a speed bump in general so it's not like we're staring at a multi-week disaster like we have the last 2 years. Hypothetically, I wouldn't care much at all if we are warm on Christmas but are tracking a threat in the mid range. That could very well be the case this year. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Little clearer example here. Notice how the isobars are sagging down on the east side of the Apps in the circle drawn? Highlighted by the frozen that is sagging down there as well? That's the cad sig.

 

What makes it so interesting is that it's showing up strong on an ens mean d8+. I can't say the last time I've seen it like that. Ops throw it out there all the time but an ens mean way out in time showing it is impressive. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I like the broad trough too. MUCH more room to amplify something versus where we've been the last week or so. The expansive cold showing up is pretty impressive too. 

I have mixed emotions about everything because being warm or rainy on Christmas has become tiresome. OTOH- it's only a speed bump in general so it's not like we're staring at a multi-week disaster like we have the last 2 years. Hypothetically, I wouldn't care much at all if we are warm on Christmas but are tracking a threat in the mid range. That could very well be the case this year. 

Christmas is a threat we are tracking in the mid range isn’t it?  I saw in your earlier post you mentioned might have to be patient for until after Xmas.  What are we being patient for?  Front to push through?  SER to collapse?  Mid range after Xmas puts us after NYD.

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Christmas is a threat we are tracking in the mid range isn’t it?  I saw in your earlier post you mentioned might have to be patient for until after Xmas.  What are we being patient for?  Front to push through?  SER to collapse?  Mid range after Xmas puts us after NYD.

Mid range is subjective. Personally, I call anything inside of 7 days mid range and inside of 2 days short range. Anything over 7d is long range to me. There aren't any rules though. 

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I think if we got a huge ice/sleet storm during Christmas, this would be remembered as one of the best Decembers in recent memory. What winter in the past 10 years has had snow and cold this early, and an ice storm? 

I agree with you because this is an all or nothing situation that could last a while.  Meaning the importance of the Xmas time winter event whatever it turns out says a lot about where we go from there imo.  If we get it the front pushed through the SER mostly.  And the SW trough wasn’t as pronounced.  But if it’s warm and rainy on Xmas things will be harder to turn arond becase those features SER and SW trough weren’t mitigated

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Just now, kurtstack said:

If the signal for CAD continues that is encouraging.  We can do well in situations like this with a nice overrunning event.   We often get snow to sleet to dry slot/drizzle/fzdrizzle in setups like this one if the high can hold a decent position long enough. 

Seeing as our recent CAD events have overperformed, such as the Presidents day ice storm like 2 years ago. If I remember correctly, heavy bands of snow hit the SE burbs and they got 6-10" of snow like nothing, and then the ice portion overperformed as well. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

What makes it so interesting is that it's showing up strong on an ens mean d8+. I can't say the last time I've seen it like that. Ops throw it out there all the time but an ens mean way out in time showing it is impressive. 

Definitely a strong signal from the ensembles for being at range especially for cad which is such a subtle feature to pick up on. I can see how I may be enjoying rain for Christmas in Western PA while you all enjoy snow/ice courtesy of CAD.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

A lot of you are greedy wanting the Xmas snow. I'm just hoping for a sub 50 degree Xmas Eve and Xmas Day that is maybe cloudy so it feels like winter.

I don't want Xmas snow. I just want some wintry weather during that time, and if we don't get that, at least a favorable pattern in the foreseeable future. Would suck spending the next 3 weeks knowing that we're gonna be above average for the bulk of it. Good thing is, we're not heading to peak climo yet, so I'm not too worried. Any wintry weather in December is icing on the cake. We have seen many times where we surpass climo in only a month and a half (such as 14-15)

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

A lot of you are greedy wanting the Xmas snow. I'm just hoping for a sub 50 degree Xmas Eve and Xmas Day that is maybe cloudy so it feels like winter.

Personally I think it’s either 30s with CAD or 60 and dry with precip to our west..at least from 81 east.  Just my opinion and I’m not explaining it like I am thinking it. 

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Whether or not it snows on X-mas/eve is one thing, but for us Wx/snow-weenies I can't be alone in saying that the holidays are so much better when you are tracking a potential SECS+. I'll never forget the joy I got X-mas day when the GFS suddenly jumped on board at 12z for the Boxing Day storm. Then the even better feeling when the EURO finally jumped on board X-mas night. Also December 31 2001 was a fun time. Even though it was bust it was fun tracking during my Winter break. 

Awesome to see the models starting to show some potential today. 

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Whether or not it snows on X-mas/eve is one thing, but for us Wx/snow-weenies I can't be alone in saying that the holidays are so much better when you are tracking a potential SECS+. I'll never forget the joy I got X-mas day when the GFS suddenly jumped on board at 12z. Then the even better feeling when the EURO finally jumped on board X-mas night. Also December 31 2001 was a fun time. Even though it was bust it was fun tracking during my Winter break. 

Awesome to see the models starting to show some potential today. 

Are you talking about the Boxing Day storm? I was still too young to care about weather then, and thank goodness for that. Wouldn't be fun to start of my snow-weenie hobby with a disappointment 

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1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I still don't see it.  Darn

Don't hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning. Think the ridge will be there and it will be there. It's a mother, beautiful ridge, and it's gonna be there. Ok?

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7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I know its faux pas to discuss a model before it has finished, but early indicators are that the happy hour GFS won't be as good as the 12z. Less suppression out ahead of the incoming PAC NW low, diggier look in the Southwest.

It looks fairly similar to the 6z, but slightly better. 

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