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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
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24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Good post.  How does the EPS look through its run?  Your thoughts on the MJO are spot on.  And please tell Mack, that he can still easily get a fresh out of the oven Miller B in that pattern and get an inch of ice!

Thanks, below is the EPS for days 10-15.  Control run is actually quite warm in the SE during that timeframe (snow in the Rockies with SE ridge).  

3tPZoJ6.png

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Just now, griteater said:

Thanks, below is the EPS for days 10-15.  Control run is actually quite warm in the SE during that timeframe (snow in the Rockies with SE ridge).  

3tPZoJ6.png

Thanks.  The GEFS looks better!  That is not very attractive.  The EPS run from yesterday (or the day before) looked much better.  The angle of the cold is all wrong. :)

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Not only that, but Judah Cohen is talking about a disruption of the SPV. So we got that possibly. Polar Vortex. Phase 8 MJO. SSW. Incoming pattern change. Discuss amongst yourselves. I have to go put a new aluminum double pass radiator in my 93 Land Cruiser. Anyone feel like giving me a hand? Free beer and Blanton's. LOL

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

Thanks, below is the EPS for days 10-15.  Control run is actually quite warm in the SE during that timeframe (snow in the Rockies with SE ridge).  

3tPZoJ6.png

Looks hot. Maybe a "thread the needle inside a wind tunnel blindfolded" event is still possible :( 

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2 hours ago, tramadoc said:

Not only that, but Judah Cohen is talking about a disruption of the SPV. So we got that possibly. Polar Vortex. Phase 8 MJO. SSW. Incoming pattern change. Discuss amongst yourselves. I have to go put a new aluminum double pass radiator in my 93 Land Cruiser. Anyone feel like giving me a hand? Free beer and Blanton's. LOL

In other news, the grass is green and the sky is blue.

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7 hours ago, griteater said:

^ Euro weeklies come out tonight based off that 00z run above, so we'll see what it thinks rolling forward into mid and late Feb

New Euro Weeklies keep the -EPO pattern with SE ridging and core of the cold to our NW (over the north central states and Canada) thru week 3 (Feb 8-15), then the Aleutian low and western ridge move east so it's more of a +PNA look for mid Feb into early March, however, it's +NAO and the core of the cold stays over the NE and E Canada verbatim on the model in mid-Feb, before cold anomalies work in toward the last 1/3 of Feb and early Mar. 

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

New Euro Weeklies keep the -EPO pattern with SE ridging and core of the cold to our NW (over the north central states and Canada) thru week 3 (Feb 8-15), then the Aleutian low and western ridge move east so it's more of a +PNA look for mid Feb into early March, however, it's +NAO and the core of the cold stays over the NE and E Canada verbatim on the model in mid-Feb, before cold anomalies work in toward the last 1/3 of Feb and early Mar. 

Sweet!  Time to break out the preemergent buffet!

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12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just your typical January " thaw" they said, winter will come roaring back early Feb, wait, I mean mid February, oooops, I mean late Feb will be our greatness, oh wait, I mean March 1960! What a load of dump

Yeah at least 99.9% of the board had a great winter if it ends now. Unfortunately I'm in that .1% that will remember this winter as the biggest dumpster fire in history.

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6 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Looks hot. Maybe a "thread the needle inside a wind tunnel blindfolded" event is still possible :( 

 

8 hours ago, griteater said:

Thanks, below is the EPS for days 10-15.  Control run is actually quite warm in the SE during that timeframe (snow in the Rockies with SE ridge).  

3tPZoJ6.png

Where have I seen this map before. Oh yes It was back in December before the hammer dropped when many on here were saying winter is canceled. 

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Just your typical January " thaw" they said, winter will come roaring back early Feb, wait, I mean mid February, oooops, I mean late Feb will be our greatness, oh wait, I mean March 1960! What a load of dump

Dang, just like that winter is over!! I sure didn’t think we would be through with winter in January? What the heck has happened? I just read a FB post Robert posted, he’s still talking like February is gonna have cold a maybe many possibilities for winter weather.

 

 

. The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and most importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February.

Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February.

Speaking of businesses, if you need more long range info and a heads up , and want to join my monthly paid blog, shoot me a PM with your city, state and email.

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