USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I gotta be honest James....whenever you say anything lately, it’s really hard to take you seriously. You interpreting skills are poor at best. Stop with the fantasy goggles...and really try to look objectively at whatever the heck it is your looking at? Man you know what's wrong with most people on these forums, their outlook on life. Get it out of your head now, either ignore what I have to say, or accept what I have to say. The fact is the NAM came in stronger with the vort max and clipper came north, now the runs to trust are still at 12z Tuesday afternoon, once the EURO comes in, then I will quit on the clipper, but honestly you shouldn't worry about a Cape Cod possible snowfall, like I do, I have people who count on my outlooks, I am wrong sometimes, yes, but I see the potential in patterns, who you call a weenie, but you also label a negative nancy a weenie too don't know, I just take the positive side of things, because positive people are accepted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Also I don't believe the clipper has any influence what so ever on our Friday night into Saturday coastal threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 James, you can’t come in here and make sh it up because you want it to snow. Try learning like the rest of us are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: James, you can’t come in here and make sh it up because you want it to snow. Try learning like the rest of us are doing. What am I making up, I saw the shortwave on the NAM it came northward and there was a better bundle of energy associated with it, it did not make a difference this go around, but I believe models at 12z will either show it better or not at all, and that is when I will agree it was nothing to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Our coastal storm is developing hour 90 off the NC coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just because a model shows something does not mean it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Just because a model shows something does not mean it's correct. That gioes for them not showing something too and being incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1004mb low off the VA beach area, I think this will be a decent hit for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just because a model shows something does not mean it's correct. Except when it's a cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 00z GFS is doing its convective feedback problem again jumping the surface low to the convection and not staying with the upper level trough support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 There’s your inch James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: There’s your inch James. yep, convective feedback at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 00z GFS is a disjointed hot mess. The southern shortwave blows past the northern one doing like 80 mph in the high speed lane. Northern shortwave catches its exhaust once it merges but the lead wave is well on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: yep, convective feedback at its finest Just because it has convection does not mean it is suffering from convective feedback. It could be the GFS progressive bias too, or it could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Man you know what's wrong with most people on these forums, their outlook on life. Get it out of your head now, either ignore what I have to say, or accept what I have to say. The fact is the NAM came in stronger with the vort max and clipper came north, now the runs to trust are still at 12z Tuesday afternoon, once the EURO comes in, then I will quit on the clipper, but honestly you shouldn't worry about a Cape Cod possible snowfall, like I do, I have people who count on my outlooks, I am wrong sometimes, yes, but I see the potential in patterns, who you call a weenie, but you also label a negative nancy a weenie too don't know, I just take the positive side of things, because positive people are accepted. Absolutely irrelevant within the context of appropriately interpreting model data. Tell tale sign someone doesn't know what they are talking about when discussing meteorology.....they add subjectivity into the mix in a feeble attempt to divert attention away from the fact that they know not what they speak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 2 hours ago, leo2000 said: I panic because I really don't want another really late winter. I'll go talk to mother nature for you and see what i can do to get her to give you a Jan to remember seeing you're running out of bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely irrelevant within the context of appropriately interpreting model data. Tell tale sign someone doesn't know what they are talking about when discussing meteorology.....they add subjectivity into the mix in a feeble attempt to divert attention away from the fact that they know not what they speak.. I think the biggest issue is the "I believe" statements. Models can be wrong, but there needs to be a reason for it. It's also okay to have a negative opinion of a system. If every potential was realized, Scooter would be buried up to his every week, and poor Bryce would think Feb 2015 is the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think the biggest issue is the "I believe" statements. Models can be wrong, but there needs to be a reason for it. It's also okay to have a negative opinion of a system. If every potential was realized, Scooter would be buried up to his every week, and poor Bryce would think Feb 2015 is the norm. Yes. Enough with the "I think this trends south and colder".....give us a non BS reason why. Sometimes its just a hunch, which is fine.....but there are some people, and we know who they are, that always have the same hunches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Enough with the "I think this trends south and colder".....give us a non BS reason why. Sometimes its just a hunch, which is fine.....but there are some people, and we know who they are, that always have the same hunches I mean yeah, the Gulf Stream is there, but the baroclinic zone at 850 mb doesn't care where the Gulf Stream is. If warm water really drove cyclogenesis, we would always see wild storms because the Gulf Stream doesn't move that much and it's always warm relative to the land this time of year. But we don't so there must be another reason why some storms bomb and others fizzle. I swear, we're not trying to be turds in the punchbowl when we speak unfavorably about a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Well that was one of the more annoying GFS runs I’ve seen.....just a big smeared out mess.....the grinch looms.....Euro PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 That is a nice -EPO in the extended. But with no NAO help as usual, that will be playing with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Hopefully not Cuttercosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like a yawn fest for awhile. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 EPS supports what we were talking abut yesterday. Sure there is cold potential but cutters can come with the potential for some spectacular torches in between. Otoh, we could be on the good side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Nothing for at least a week . Man this is tough to take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nothing for at least a week . Man this is tough to take Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS supports what we were talking abut yesterday. Sure there is cold potential but cutters can come with the potential for some spectacular torches in between. Otoh, we could be on the good side of the boundary. Would be nice to get a -NAO for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: Glad we don't live there Enjoy your snow. Bare ground and cold in SNE possibly thru months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy your snow. Bare ground and cold in SNE possibly thru months end. Get out the boom box and hair spray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Get out the boom box and hair spray. Hard to believe we come out of this “epicosity” with 1 snowfall until it warms in Jan. All this talk of great pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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