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Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

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6 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Everyone know that e1 is what it is going to be

I think you meant eC ;)

 

Honestly after last year I'm much more used to e6.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

This would be huge if it was real too

With this 500mb map

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017112912&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

And this 6 hour precip map, there would be plenty more snow to fall as the 500mb Low pulls the precip north/northeastward

 

EURO.DAY 10.PRECIP.png

Shame it'll be gone in 12 hours.  I guess the point is not to look at specifics, because that'll change of course, but the general idea of cold is looking almost like a lock.  

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just look at the pattern, guys.  You get a PAC like whats shown where waves are buckled then there will be threats.

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The signal on the GEFS is really picking up for a storm centered roughly day 7/8 as the cold pushes in. Precip amounts have once again increased with roughly half showing totals of .75+ with quite few an inch or more. Also seeing a little more enthusiasm for some potential snow as the mean now sees the 1/2 inch line through the cities with 3 members now showing decent snow of 2-3 inches through the metro corridor.

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27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This would be huge if it was real too

With this 500mb map

 

 

If you don’t mind, how does the 500mb map lead you to believe that there would be much more? I love soaking up information so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. 

 

Merci

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The signal on the GEFS is really picking up for a storm centered roughly day 7/8 as the cold pushes in. Precip amounts have once again increased with roughly half showing totals of .75+ with quite few an inch or more. Also seeing a little more enthusiasm for some potential snow as the mean now sees the 1/2 inch line through the cities with 3 members now showing decent snow of 2-3 inches through the metro corridor.

If we look past our past failures and pessimism,  it’s really a solid pattern as depticted for winter weather of some kind.  I know we have failed much closer in time but that 500mb look is hard to dismiss.  

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

If you don’t mind, how does the 500mb map lead you to believe that there would be much more? I love soaking up information so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. 

 

Merci

The snow @ d10 on the euro is the frontside stuff. It's the middle of a legit storm at the end of the run. 

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