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Hurricane Nate

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

As this gets further and further away from the Carolinas, I feel it will be discussed less! :(

Kind of like a good winter storm modeled for a day or two , to hit NC, then trends towards the MA! 

Y'all should see some decent rains from this if it hooks ENE like the gfs is suggesting.

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Taylorsweather

Taylorsweather

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

As this gets further and further away from the Carolinas, I feel it will be discussed less! :(

Kind of like a good winter storm modeled for a day or two , to hit NC, then trends towards the MA! 

According to GSP, we are still in the game.  From this morning's discussion:

  

Operational guidance is in remarkable agreement through this time,
especially on mass fields, but as is typical some differences start
emerging in the details. Forecast PW values at this point are above
record levels for both KFFC and KGSO, and with southeasterly surface
flow veering to southerly at 850mb providing orographic enhancement
to the synoptic lift, ingredients are in place for some heavy rain.
Good thing is that Nate`s remnants will be moving pretty fast,
zipping by just to our west (could travel right up the NC/TN state
line or just slightly west of there). Research has shown that if
shear associated with the tropical system is >30kt, then the heavy
rain is deflected to the right of the track, whereas if it`s <30kt,
the heavy rain should be in line with the track. Despite >30kt
shear, operational guidance wants to keep the heaviest rain along
the track, which provides an interesting case study. Would not be
surprised if current QPF values are a tad on the low side. Storm
total QPF straight from WPC has bumped values up a tad and now gives
storm total (into the extended) with lingering rain, more on that
later) of over 6" in the SW mountains, but generally 1-2" across the
Piedmont. At this point, nothing particularly worrisome, but if
these totals are low, will of course need to account for that in
later forecasts.
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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

As this gets further and further away from the Carolinas, I feel it will be discussed less! :(

Kind of like a good winter storm modeled for a day or two , to hit NC, then trends towards the MA! 

Its ticking east some per the GFS.  Looks like w-NC down to your area gets big rains.  ColdRain and I get some scraps.

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_16.png

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

It is still well south of Cancun.

Just wait for it.  Watch him get stronger today as he pulls away from Mexico.  The part of the Yucatán he’s going to cross isn’t going to do much disruption.  He’s still organizing so any land interaction weakening will be minimal compared to a mature system. 

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Definitely hard to tell atm if Nate is trying to strengthen and convection trying to wrap around on the E , NE, N side. Convection though has waned some on the S, SW side.  The East side is lacking a lot. Don't think it's dry air. Water vapor confirms that. Probably just a classic case of the center out running convection.

Screenshot_2017-10-06-10-02-00.png

Screenshot_2017-10-06-10-03-29.png

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Posted

If he stays more east then he has a better chance of getting stronger in the short term, but the GOM is cooler on that side thanks to Irma so once he is in the GOM its tough to say what he would do if he tracked further east...water there is mostly upper 70's low 80's still enough to fuel a storm....forward speed is the real killer though...its hard for any storm to stay well organized when its moving 20-25 mph like Nate will be. Plane in there now finding 40-45 mph surface winds on the east side the west side is meh barely 30 mph.....still a lot of work needed by Nate to build a core.  He really needs to miss the Yuke to the right if he can....any gains he makes will be be hindered but then again the Yuke isnt that high so who knows, this year has been so crazy intensity wise. 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

If he stays more east then he has a better chance of getting stronger in the short term, but the GOM is cooler on that side thanks to Irma so once he is in the GOM its tough to say what he would do if he tracked further east...water there is mostly upper 70's low 80's still enough to fuel a storm....forward speed is the real killer though...its hard for any storm to stay well organized when its moving 20-25 mph like Nate will be. Plane in there now finding 40-45 mph surface winds on the east side the west side is meh barely 30 mph.....still a lot of work needed by Nate to build a core.  He really needs to miss the Yuke to the right if he can....any gains he makes will be be hindered but then again the Yuke isnt that high so who knows, this year has been so crazy intensity wise. 

Last line should not be taken lightly.   I’m still on board with a cat 2 before landfall.  Look at what Harvey did.  Open wave to cat 4 in less time than NATE will be over the GoM

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Lithiawx. The waters are cold. His best bet straight up the channel between Yucatan and Cuba. I'm seriously thinking the models are under done with qpf. Especially if he travels up the spine or west of the apps combined with the convergence of the front/trough. Even though not a full blown phase. But if he goes West. That's a lot of orographic uplift if he does. Especially since the winds in theory would start out NE and veer SE to eventually Sw

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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39 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Last line should not be taken lightly.   I’m still on board with a cat 2 before landfall.  Look at what Harvey did.  Open wave to cat 4 in less time than NATE will be over the GoM

I am skeptical, its possible but fast forward motion and marginal water temps usually equal east side storm/half a cane.....the GFS has been uber aggressive this year with storm development and pressures and was often to low with the storms, and it doesnt do to much with Nate, neither do any of the other models really,  even the HMON and HWRF keep it 970-980ish which would be Cat 1 at best given the setup I think. They also all keep him tiny, with a small wind field.....its tough to get a read on this one.  I guess there is little support for Nate being anything more than a strong TS weak cane at landfall at this point....if he was going slower then he would probably get Cat 2-3 but the NHC has him close to landfall in like 36 hrs that means he has to average 21 mph to get there and he is currently going 10 so sometime in the next 12 hrs or so he is gonna take off and after that it will be tough for him to get more organized. 

There does seem to be a east trend a bit and the HH is finding him moving more NNW or N than anything if that held up he would end up hitting MS/AL and into GA and maybe get up over the mts or even east of there a bit. 

06Z GFS 10 m wind, shows how small models keep him....also fast forward speed means west side is blah

gfs_mslp_wind_16L_9.thumb.png.7ee49933d7e2d7c961c38c2e4dbcc4d2.png

 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

My thought is that water temperatures are not nearly as big a deal as the fast forward movement.  I just don't think Nate will intensify much moving this quickly.  Will probably be a half hurricane.  Strong winds well east of the center and very light north winds on the west side.

Are there any analogs of storms moving this quickly northbound and intensifying rapidly?  

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Hurricane warnings hoisted from eastern LA to the FL panhandle.  Atlanta is going to take a decent hit from Natedog.  Looks like a matter of how strong he gets to determine how much Atlanta takes from Nate. 

83F608C8-2416-43FE-A7E9-9EC5C5D5ED03.png

Euro was a big West shift, bye-bye rain chances for Carolinas, if it's right! :(

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted
On 10/5/2017 at 11:16 AM, Lookout said:

Thats the truth. I somehow lucked out with keeping power but irma cost me nearly $2000 in getting trees cut down. I lost two oaks of course but they were apart of a bunch and were stress fractures between the rest so I had to get the rest cut down...and  I'm still in the process of cleaning that mess up.   We/I do need the rain but id rather we not have to worry about losing power again or more trees coming down.    How long did it take for you to get your power back? 

Took four very long days to get my power back lol. Still have trees down around town. Two in one year? Wild lol

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