• Member Statistics

    15,530
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    UniversesBelowNormal
    Newest Member
    UniversesBelowNormal
    Joined
JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

Recommended Posts

Yeah, there's still a lot of run to run differences showing up from model run to model run on each individual model as can be expected with a pattern change. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yep. Probably more to come as well.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

 

Yep... what an insane run...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

Absolutely crazy run 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interested to see what happens with all of this. Being so far out, it's silly to focus on any one model, but there is definitely an overall consensus that the ingredients for a winter event are in place. I moved to Tulsa 2 years ago from Dallas, hoping that I would get more wintry precip...but so far the last 2 winters have been duds. Here's to hoping!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, that -EPO ridge just won't go away. This is similar to about 4-5 years ago when we had those back to back years where the -EPO ridge persisted and we got tons of cold and snow was above average. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely more interesting and fun to have something to watch.  I think we all can agree that an ice storm isn't what we want especially right at Christmas.  Hard to say this far out if the cold air is shallow and stalls out around the Ozark Mountains.  The GFS has hinted at that recently with the strong SER  We shall see   

And if I remember correctly, JoMo has stated previously that a -EPO is our most crucial teleconnection for wintry weather.  Even with a +NAO.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Definitely more interesting and fun to have something to watch.  I think we all can agree that an ice storm isn't what we want especially right at Christmas.  Hard to say this far out if the cold air is shallow and stalls out around the Ozark Mountains.  The GFS has hinted at that recently with the strong SER  We shall see   

And if I remember correctly, JoMo has stated previously that a -EPO is our most crucial teleconnection for wintry weather.  Even with a +NAO.  

 

 

We can get cold with -EPO or -AO. The last few winters have had a predominantly +AO which doesn't bode well for cold here. (I think 2012-2013 was last fullish -AO winter)  So the other way is the -EPO which delivers the cold air. I think a neutral PNA was best for wintry weather though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is really rockin' the cold air next weekend. There is a 40F temperature swing from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mike Morgan from KFOR already talking about the possibility of wintry precipitation on Christmas, 11 days away. Such a bad representative for mets everywhere, despite being in a state whose flagship university is known for meteorology. 

"LATEST LOOK at Christmas Day in OKC. This forecast is based on a LOT of different and constantly changing forecasts from about 150 computer models a DAY. General PATTERN of all of these COLDER with MOISTURE POSSIBLE. Still 12 days away but will track it."

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/941163647463813120

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Mike Morgan from KFOR already talking about the possibility of wintry precipitation on Christmas, 11 days away. Such a bad representative for mets everywhere, despite being in a state whose flagship university is known for meteorology. 

"LATEST LOOK at Christmas Day in OKC. This forecast is based on a LOT of different and constantly changing forecasts from about 150 computer models a DAY. General PATTERN of all of these COLDER with MOISTURE POSSIBLE. Still 12 days away but will track it."

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/941163647463813120

 

 

Love his EF+/- forecasts on severe days. Those are *super* helpful

While I think the chances of snow on or near Christmas are greater than average this year...to make an 11 day forecast with hourly timing is absolutely absurd and dishonest as to the current capabilities of the field of meteorology. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Everyone!! Long time...no chat! Of course like everyone, I'm getting excited about the "potential winter weather". We are due for snow in Tulsa and across Oklahoma...I still have bugs! Come on...kill these suckers!!!

My favorite Okie mets are Mike Collier KJRH Tulsa, Aaron Tuttle, Travis Meyer KOTV Tulsa, David Payne KWTV OKC. None of those guys go overboard, and are quick to caution what gets put out on social media.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Love his EF+/- forecasts on severe days. Those are *super* helpful

While I think the chances of snow on or near Christmas are greater than average this year...to make an 11 day forecast with hourly timing is absolutely absurd and dishonest as to the current capabilities of the field of meteorology. 

Pretty sure you summed up mike morgan as a whole right there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to see if the models get even colder the closer we get to the event. I seem to recall them not being cold enough with the cold air back in the big EPO years a few years ago.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, JoMo said:

No cutoff on the 00z GFS. Also more of a +PNA look towards the end of the run so trough is more east.

00Z GFS looks like an outlier run for how the trough develops (I.e., no cutoff). Not sure how to take it. Guess we'll see what the EC says later. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

00Z GFS looks like an outlier run for how the trough develops (I.e., no cutoff). Not sure how to take it. Guess we'll see what the EC says later. 

00z GEFS made the 00z GFS look like an outlier. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z GEFS made the 00z GFS look like an outlier. 

What has the euro been showing? Haven't had a chance to look lately 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MUWX said:

What has the euro been showing? Haven't had a chance to look lately 

Eh 00z Euro had a cutoff it buries over the Baja. Overall, really 'meh' run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been reading what Doug Heady and Gary Lezak have to say about the Christmas system, and they couldn't be more different. Doug has kept the same tone for about a week now, and Gary had flip flopped every model run. Gary went from a 10% chance of a while Christmas, to a 55% chance back to a 15% chance in 24 hours. They both use the recurring cycle, but it's pretty obvious that Gary is just following the models for this one, while it seems Doug actually has faith in the recurring pattern idea. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I've been reading what Doug Heady and Gary Lezak have to say about the Christmas system, and they couldn't be more different. Doug has kept the same tone for about a week now, and Gary had flip flopped every model run. Gary went from a 10% chance of a while Christmas, to a 55% chance back to a 15% chance in 24 hours. They both use the recurring cycle, but it's pretty obvious that Gary is just following the models for this one, while it seems Doug actually has faith in the recurring pattern idea. 

Lezak's pattern doesn't work in years like this one until it's already almost too late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Lezak's pattern doesn't work in years like this one until it's already almost too late.

Aren't Doug and his basically the same?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.