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Cerakoter1984

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  1. Excited to hopefully get to knock out this snow drought. Lowest amounts I saw was 1" for my area so that will work for November 12. Good luck everyone!
  2. I'm still here. What's this "snow" you speak of? lol. In all seriousness, looks like we're not done seeing increases. This looks like a legit warning snow for me if I'm extrapolating correctly.
  3. raindance is correct. The upcoming winter, if it errs on the warm side as the Nino forecasts seem to be making it, will be subject to long-term CAD events. (C.old A.ir D.amming) If we err on the side of severe cold, it will be major snow events for most of this area and very prolonged severe cold. If we have that odd situation where the tropics are strong and the cold is locked into the US all winter (think Russia the last 3 seasons), well, use your imagination about the severity of that.
  4. Hey all! Looking like a cold finish to October is in store. I'm getting very excited about the prospects of what late autumn and winter could bring to this area. This could likely finish as the coldest 20 days many of us have seen to close an October ever. That's pretty profound if you ask me. I understand that Canada's crops failed due to cold and most of their stuff has happened a month or more early. I'd say we should be ready for a real winter.
  5. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    I'm staying with warm-neutral "head fake".
  6. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    I was mostly just reaffirming or finalizing my call, not so much assessing. Sometimes I do that so I can't change my mind again later.
  7. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    Had it as a head fake from the onset, may have waffled once but I think my gut made a pretty solid call here. Neutral for the win.
  8. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    Hard to spot the similarities because the images aren't lined up well but if you look, they are there.
  9. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    I'm leaning pretty hard towards an Autumn 2000 type weather pattern. It would fit the short-cycling "false Niño" concept that I have pretty well also. Just depends on when it arrives. Early will be a waste and a cold autumn that warms into winter relative to average. Locations of warmest SSTs in both the ATL, PAC and IO are nearly in full agreement with me as far as analogs are concerned as well.
  10. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    By late summer, that puts a ridge over the west coast, kills the ATL hurricane season and warms the PDO, correct?
  11. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    You don't think this will verify? If you want the Niño to complete (strengthen), and to get PDO support later in the summer, you want this to happen, cycle through, retrograde, and happen again. Right?
  12. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    I'll give you this, though. That was a rather impressive 2 month run up to positive in certain Niño regions and enough to bring rainfall back to many of the areas of the US that really needed it.
  13. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    I do know one thing, if you guys are right and what I have read about the link between AMO and the North Pacific hold true, our weather will get a lot more interesting as the year goes along. Especially after July passed. The storm track has been so lazy and lax for 3 years and it makes it hard to break out of very persistent weather patterns.
  14. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    Of the +.4° Global temp anomaly right now, right at or just over half of it is ocean temp. (+.2°C)
  15. Cerakoter1984

    Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

    Yeah. We have dropped a long way in global temp from the hysteria of a couple years ago. Whenever the extreme heat in the Atlantic and the heat off S. America dissipate, there won't be much heat to talk about for a bit without a Niño.
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