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Cerakoter1984

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  1. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    Hard to spot the similarities because the images aren't lined up well but if you look, they are there.
  2. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    I'm leaning pretty hard towards an Autumn 2000 type weather pattern. It would fit the short-cycling "false Niño" concept that I have pretty well also. Just depends on when it arrives. Early will be a waste and a cold autumn that warms into winter relative to average. Locations of warmest SSTs in both the ATL, PAC and IO are nearly in full agreement with me as far as analogs are concerned as well.
  3. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    By late summer, that puts a ridge over the west coast, kills the ATL hurricane season and warms the PDO, correct?
  4. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    You don't think this will verify? If you want the Niño to complete (strengthen), and to get PDO support later in the summer, you want this to happen, cycle through, retrograde, and happen again. Right?
  5. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    I'll give you this, though. That was a rather impressive 2 month run up to positive in certain Niño regions and enough to bring rainfall back to many of the areas of the US that really needed it.
  6. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    I do know one thing, if you guys are right and what I have read about the link between AMO and the North Pacific hold true, our weather will get a lot more interesting as the year goes along. Especially after July passed. The storm track has been so lazy and lax for 3 years and it makes it hard to break out of very persistent weather patterns.
  7. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    Of the +.4° Global temp anomaly right now, right at or just over half of it is ocean temp. (+.2°C)
  8. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    Yeah. We have dropped a long way in global temp from the hysteria of a couple years ago. Whenever the extreme heat in the Atlantic and the heat off S. America dissipate, there won't be much heat to talk about for a bit without a Niño.
  9. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    Don't get me wrong, I can promise you I really really x1000 really want a weak Niño going into this autumn and winter. I also DO acknowledge that the atmosphere looks like Niño quite a lot right now. (Warm ridging over the northern central plains and into central Canada, cool moist underneath and cutoffs forecast to keep hitting the west coast) Problem is that it's more of a reflection of what I know to be a winter Niño state than what is commonly associated with a developing Niño in the summertime. Hence why my weight is pretty heavy on it failing. It will be fun to watch and see though.
  10. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    I wholeheartedly understand the correlation between Niño/Niña and +PNA/-PNA (Moreso, really, PDO state, as PNA state is a reflection or effect of PDO/Niño coupling). However, there's nothing at all though, to indicate to me that after the upcoming trades burst we will see sufficient Westerly wind bursts to reinforce or even get the Niño off the ground. There's just not enough atmospheric support there to flip the state all the way over in my opinion. I think the subsurface warming will dissipate pretty quickly or simply fail to surface.
  11. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    I'm speaking in terms of official, not briefly going above for a month or 2 and crashing back to normal or just below again for folks to say "close enough". Know what I mean. I was around here for all the hype leading up to the 2016 "Super" Niño. It was hyped and forecasted for 2 solid years before actually being a real Niño. I see the maps repeatedly posted. You have any descriptive or technical info to back them up or go with them? Ie: "Why 'this' supports 'that'? Or what point you're making. It may draw more discussion to your thoughts.
  12. Cerakoter1984

    ENSO 2018

    I think it's a head-fake that never becomes a Niño. Warm-neutral with folks trying to call it a Niño is my call.
  13. My nephew went to a youth event up there it was quite chilly for them. Been quite the April opener this year for sure. Year without a spring continues. Going straight to summer out west this week.
  14. Looking like an interesting weekend on tap next weekend as well.
  15. DCA +.07 NYC -1.7 BOS -0.9 ORD -2.0 ATL +0.3 IAH +0.7 DEN -5.2 PHX +3.7 SEA +2.1 Don't know if I'm allowed to participate but thought I'd try it out.
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