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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

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5 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I'm certainly growing more concerned about any December forecasts for cold and snow.  It seems the persistent dry pattern is trumping all for the foreseeable future.

Yea man like you when we get into december like this and are still forecasted to have upper 50's(again, same ole same ole lol) when forecaster's mentioned cold to come and stick around, I get antsy and worried!! I'm not buying any of the analogs or any of these so called long range forecasts anymore haha. I will just wait this out for the 3rd year and see what happens! I am definitely not holding my breath yet again for sure lol. I do hope the snow gods and mother nature at least throw us a bone around xmas and give us some damn cold at least! That is what bums me out the most, a warm crappy balmy xmas eve and day haha. I know we are further south now but darn cmon already!! For surely can't have another winter/xmas day in the upper 40's right....most likely wrong lol

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Looks like November, which was hyped to be pretty cold, ended up only slightly cold in the East, with a look somewhat similar to 2007, 2012, 1949, and maybe 1995 distant 4th. It certainly looks nothing like 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 or other recent winters with memorable features for the East. The blend of the 2007/2012 gives some cold in the Lakes/NE and a lot of heat in the SW for November which is the right idea even if the core of the cold/heat is off a bit. A blend of 1995/1996/1999 isn't bad either, two cold years in the Lakes/NE v. one super torch.

EgFIBju.png

uPEXOoZ.png

Going to be hard for December to be too cold nationally, with 20% of the month registering incredible warmth. The cool area to date (NV) is where the Canadian had it cold to date. The reds are fading some in the West generally, with the high here forecast at 37F or so on 12/7, which is ~11F below normal for the date. The current look of the map for December is close to what my analogs had for January, but the MJO progression has been different from the years I used, so its not super surprising. The Canadian look for Dec (Nov 30) had the cold centered on NV, with NM/CO/WY on the edge of it/near average and everyone else quite warm.

 

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17 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

JoMo's been awfully silent as well which probably isn't a good sign.  He may still mourning over the collapse of the KC Chiefs.  May they rest in peace...

Been busy with some stuff lately. Nothing really exciting going on with the trough in the east, leads to NW flow here which means all the snowfall usually ends up east of here if nothing can undercut the ridge in the west. I was hoping for some retrogression of the pattern with the trough moving back to our area like the models had been showing, but the Euro ensemble hasn't been very excited about that lately. We'll see though since the CFS has been showing that happening towards the end of the month and into Jan.

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The GEFS hints at the retrogression with the trough moving back west. The Euro isn't as into it though. The -EPO look remains on both models though so cold air will be available in Canada. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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Joe Bastardi stated in his daily video he believes Dec 23-28 is going to be "very cold" in the Plains and Southern Plaines.  

GFS doesn't show this as of now.  Will be interesting to see if he's correct.  

Hopefully the retrogression of the trough back to the west comes to fruition.  Would be nice to have a cold Christmas this year.  

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16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Joe Bastardi stated in his daily video he believes Dec 23-28 is going to be "very cold" in the Plains and Southern Plaines.  

GFS doesn't show this as of now.  Will be interesting to see if he's correct.  

Hopefully the retrogression of the trough back to the west comes to fruition.  Would be nice to have a cold Christmas this year.  

It's going to warm up prior to that as the pattern shifts.

By the end of the run the colder air looks poised to drop back south down the Plains possibly. Not sure how far south it will get though.

eps_t2m_anom_noram_360.png

 

The 06z GEFS def shows it dropping farther south.

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

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Please be cold for xmas and xmas eve!!! Goodness I dont want another xmas and holidays in the upper 40's lol!!

On a side note my home state of south jersey is in a winter storm watch!!!! Jeesh they will probly have another year of feet of snow haha. My aunt, who is further away from the coast, said its been snowing there all morning and probly gonna get 5-10" or so in her area, the area I grew up in was close to the bay and ocean so it can be hit or miss in that spot but even that area is supposed to start as rain then over to snow for a day or two...bleh

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I'd be just fine with upper 40s for Christmas here in the Tulsa area, NwWhiteOut! That's the seasonal average, and seasonal averages seem hard to achieve in December these days. I really dread any sort of Christmas warmth. I was able to avoid the Christmas mega-torch somewhat last year by spending Christmas in Iowa. 

Here's to wishing and hoping. 

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48 minutes ago, JoMo said:

That system showing up on the GFS near Christmas (give or take a day or two) looks interesting.

The pattern change for that timeframe has been consistent and that new pattern is favorable for wintry weather in E OK.

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Yeah, the 18z GFS has an overrunning situation and then after 384, looks to be attempting a phase. Fascinating. Unfortunately, it's about 9-10 days until the possible system hits land over WA/OR. 

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12Z EPS control run has nearly the same storm as the GFS. And the GEFS and EPS pattern evolution hints at something brewing in the days leading up to Christmas. So, who knows, maybe we're seeing a bit more skill than usual of modeling with an active pattern in the works. Or modeling could just be teasing us again.

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Things continue head in a positive direction as far as the progression vs my analogs. Curiosity has wondering if this evolves into a 1978/2013 type of winter that lays down cold and snow then locks it in place here. I'm anxious to see what the final anomalies look like vs my maps.

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Here is where winter stands ~1/9 through winter. Suspect the reds will hold on in Montana and Arizona through Dec 31, but the rest of the country is up for grabs if we can get the MJO coherently into phases 7/8/1/2/3 by the end of the month. The snow forecast in the interior NW over the next 10 days or so makes me think that area will stay cold.

 

ZnVLzir.png

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Would be neat to see something before christmas! Anyone else have their windows open LOL??? No kidding 70 degrees in december is unreal, thought it was warm last year...this is even more crazy haha

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2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Would be neat to see something before christmas! Anyone else have their windows open LOL??? No kidding 70 degrees in december is unreal, thought it was warm last year...this is even more crazy haha

Christmas is still looking cold. Warmth should come to an end around the 21st or 22nd. 

 

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Looks pretty good, and fairly consistent for being 300+ hours out. Let's see how badly it can crush my hopes and dreams 

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12z GFS still has the Christmas week storm(s). Strong -EPO ridge is going to spill cold air south. 

The interesting thing is the persistent troughing in the west and the SE ridge. This is going to set up a fairly crazy looking pattern where pieces of energy are going to eject out of the trough and override the cold air at the surface, this leads to several rounds of frozen precip and probably a couple of ice storms near our area. 

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12z Euro was a bit of an outlier compared to the 12z GFS/CMC and the Euro Ensemble mean.

Looking a bit chilly Christmas morning on the EPS.

eps_t2m_anom_noram_312.png

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Oh that is NOT good. I have a flight from TUL to STL to FLL departing at about 5pm on Dec 25. Cannot miss the flight, or the entire holiday trip could be ruined! (Going to Trinidad on the 26th and South America on the 27th). Knowing my luck, this forecast will verify. :( 

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