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MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion


JoMo
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2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah, there's even no consistency on the Euro today. Tough to time any systems when they system timing changes from run to run and location changes hundreds of miles every run on every model.

Not fun time for meteorologists thats for sure. 

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Tulsa AFD not biting on the 18z NAM.  Would love for them to be wrong.   

 
A brief window of wintry precip remains likely late Friday night
through early Saturday along the western periphery of the precip
shield. Sfc temps will not be overly cold behind this initial
frontal passage and precip intensity will be diminishing with
time. Also precip type will likely be highly variable with the
expectation that sleet or light snow will dominate the longest.
Both icing and sleet / snow accumulations are forecast to remain
light and any impacts likely confined to elevated road surfaces.
The 18z NAM may receive some attention for those hoping for more
snow however it remains a large outlier and related SREF trends
are not optimistic for such a large forecast adjustment.
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2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Tulsa AFD not biting on the 18z NAM.  Would love for them to be wrong.   

 

A brief window of wintry precip remains likely late Friday night
through early Saturday along the western periphery of the precip
shield. Sfc temps will not be overly cold behind this initial
frontal passage and precip intensity will be diminishing with
time. Also precip type will likely be highly variable with the
expectation that sleet or light snow will dominate the longest.
Both icing and sleet / snow accumulations are forecast to remain
light and any impacts likely confined to elevated road surfaces.
The 18z NAM may receive some attention for those hoping for more
snow however it remains a large outlier and related SREF trends
are not optimistic for such a large forecast adjustment.

Well the GFS is starting to pick up on something as well. It used to have zero in the way of snowfall, but now we have a small swath of around an inch. Curious to see what the next sets have to say. I don't think they can discount it if they all start converging.

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5 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Heh,  is that 10" over Joplin lol?

Looks like it. That's with included sleet. I think 6.9" is actually 'snow' here. All dependent on if the upper storm can hold together and not fall apart. Also should note that the amount that will be on the ground will more than likely be much much less due to marginal temps. 

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This is a tough spot. You don't want to raise it drastically because of the borderline profiles and the sharp cutoff, but at the same time... if this verifies in some way (taking into account ground warmth) then the reputation takes a hit... on Christmas weekend nonetheless. This is not an enviable position.

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Just now, StormChazer said:

That's the thing about these types of situations, they're either a total bust, or someone winds up with waaayy more snow than forecasters called for. I'm not jealous of the meteorologist who makes that call. I'd rather promise little amounts and get more, than call for lots and get little to none.

Agreed. They have time to massage amounts slowly. 

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Looks like Tulsa finally bought in.

"As main vort max moves into northeast Oklahoma tonight, precipitation
is expected to transition to snow by late evening into the overnight
hours across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Snow accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches will be possible near the Interstate 44 corridor and
in the higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas before precip shifts
east Saturday morning. Still some significant uncertainty regarding
how quickly precipitation transitions to snow tonight and overall
amounts. Also, depending on how quickly the heavier precipitation
spreads north of the front today, there is some potential for
freezing rain or freezing drizzle if temperatures can wet bulb
below freezing. A winter weather advisory may be need for portions
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as precip type/amounts
become more certain."

Last night they were showing 1/4th an in of snow, now it's 1-2. Confidence in how quickly the transition takes place seems low to me. That could affect amounts as well.

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Hmmm to believe the models or not lol, Man this is supposed to happen so so early am by what I read. I guess try to get up really early tomorrow who knows. Temps have been falling slowwwwly all night though. Amazing and like I was saying before these models dont seem to be grasping anything correctly until about 12 hours before something. Good luck to all of us predicted to get something!

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2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

This is their 24 hour snow total, but their 7 day snow total has amounts of about half this. Not sure what the disconnect is. 

Can you link me to this? I'm having trouble finding it on their page.
I'm interested to see if they are saying 1-2 because they don't want to say double that just yet, or if they don't believe this because it's based off something they don't trust with certainty.

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3 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Can you link me to this? I'm having trouble finding it on their page.
I'm interested to see if they are saying 1-2 because they don't want to say double that just yet, or if they don't believe this because it's based off something they don't trust with certainty.

 

IMG_1400.PNG

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