Welcome to American Weather
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
powderfreak

NNE Fall Thread

426 posts in this topic

Including Tuesday's scattered light showers (0.09"), the extended RA event dumped 4.55" into my gauge, pushing the month's total over 6" - 1st AN month since May.  Had a rumble of thunder about 10 last evening, and a brief power loss a bit earlier.  Getting primed for Sunday night?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

From a friend on Mansfield...snow level at 3000ft and up to 3" on the ridge at 4000ft.

 

Clouds are pulling away so that beautiful white in the peaks is starting to appear.  I’ll try to get a shot from here in Burlington later today if possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Here's another photo from a friend of the snowfall...

 

I was too busy yesterday evening to hop on for a post, but here’s a shot I grabbed from my office yesterday afternoon – classic early season shot with some colorful leaves hanging on down in the valley and Mansfield with snow in the background.

 

27OCT17A.jpg

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love mornings like this.  Nice and sunny up at my house while down below its dark and foggy with a bit of drizzle.  I go down to the local store and hear people moan how its a crappy day.  They don't realize it will burn off in an hour or two or that a mile up the hill its beautiful.  I have always wanted to be a hawk and cloud skim.  Perfect morning to take the drone and do that.  Unfortunately, as the drone got to the cloud tops I had some communication issues and had to bring it back.  Still its a cool video...

 

4 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a wild day. Makes me truly appreciate those who say "don't wish for crazy storms." All of Bretton Woods is without power and expected to stay that way for 4-7 days, and now I have to deal with the cleanup. Pretty sure I'm going to have to replace furnaces, hot water heaters? etc in both houses. My brand new cabin had a foot of water on the main level, which means we probably will need to replace the ridiculously expensive reclaimed wood floor we put in. Previous owner told us the house didn't flood during Irene which I now have to believe was a complete sack of BS. Any estimate of how much water we got? I can't believe how quickly the river came up... And how quickly it went back down. 

Picture from this morning attached - that was about a foot and a half lower than the peak

9627C37A-65DC-493D-BD54-DAD720116345.jpeg

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What a wild day. Makes me truly appreciate those who say "don't wish for crazy storms." All of Bretton Woods is without power and expected to stay that way for 4-7 days, and now I have to deal with the cleanup. Pretty sure I'm going to have to replace furnaces, hot water heaters? etc in both houses. My brand new cabin had a foot of water on the main level, which means we probably will need to replace the ridiculously expensive reclaimed wood floor we put in. Previous owner told us the house didn't flood during Irene which I now have to believe was a complete sack of BS. Any estimate of how much water we got? I can't believe how quickly the river came up... And how quickly it went back down. 

Picture from this morning attached - that was about a foot and a half lower than the peak

9627C37A-65DC-493D-BD54-DAD720116345.jpeg.920a0fab3893302f87adcba850bb87c3.jpeg

Ouch. Sorry to see and hear of your flooding issues. That's a big PITA and costly. Good luck.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, alex said:

What a wild day. Makes me truly appreciate those who say "don't wish for crazy storms." All of Bretton Woods is without power and expected to stay that way for 4-7 days, and now I have to deal with the cleanup. Pretty sure I'm going to have to replace furnaces, hot water heaters? etc in both houses. My brand new cabin had a foot of water on the main level, which means we probably will need to replace the ridiculously expensive reclaimed wood floor we put in. Previous owner told us the house didn't flood during Irene which I now have to believe was a complete sack of BS. Any estimate of how much water we got? I can't believe how quickly the river came up... And how quickly it went back down. 

Picture from this morning attached - that was about a foot and a half lower than the peak

Our hydrologist was saying some of the rivers were at or just below Irene levels, but it's possible some went higher after I left at 9:30.

Dual-pol estimates (which we flipped into tropical) had some 7-8" amounts right around the Presidentials. The radar had a very Irene look to it. It just wouldn't stop raining in the Notches.

I'm sorry you're dealing with all that crap. Sometimes it's no fun seeing your forecast verify.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For posterity sake...I drove from Toronto to Stowe (5am to 3pm) through wind and rain today.  Wife said it was bad at home but I didn't register it till I saw it.  Immediately knew it might be days without power.  We made a snap decision to visit my folks in Albany for two nights instead of stay without power.  Stowe Mountain Resort was telling everyone to stay home from work today and maybe tomorrow.  My wife's work was closed too.  

In my travels, Stowe and Waterbury Center had the worst damage.  Maybe some localized pocket?  Couldn't travel 100 yards without seeing uprooted or snapped trees.  

Heres some Stowe Electric updates to save from the storm in this thread.  I will say for a small town electric company they are great with keeping information rolling.

10/30/2017  5:00am

 At this time roughly 2000 customers are with-out power.  Power is on in the main village and lower village south to Sylvan Park.  The Mountain Rd. has downed trees and broken poles.

Our crews along with crews from Johnson, Hyde Park, Burlington Electric, Massachusetts and New Hampshire are working as quickly and safely as possible to get the lights back on.  Golden Eagle is offering good rates to locals and the elderly if needed.  The Commodores and GMI have power and have rooms available.

10/30/2017 6:58

Press Release - Update

October 30, 2017        3:30pm

The Town of Stowe Emergency Operations Center is still open and Town of Stowe Public Safety personnel continue to assess the damage caused by the storm last night.

Stowe Public Safety Departments, Stowe Highway Department and Stowe Electric Department are working in areas of Town that have been impacted by the storm.

The goal is to have all roads in Stowe open before dark tonight and any hazards on the roads that still exists be adequately marked to alert drivers.

Many private driveways and private roads may still be impassable.

There will be many areas in Town that will still have power lines down and trees down and citizens are urged to use caution when approaching or encountering these areas.

Currently Stowe Electric is reporting that 60 percent of the Town is without power. Stowe Electric has brought in crews from other Vermont Towns and from out of state.  The best-case scenario is power will be restored in two days, but it may take longer.

Staff from the Town of Stowe Water Department are asking people to conserve water due to the power outage effecting their ability to supply water long term.

Chief Donald B. Hull

Stowe Police Department

10/30/2017 7:08pm

Stowe Electric crews are repairing transmission lines to the Wilkens and Lodge substations.  Our hope is to get those online this evening.  Once the transmission lines are restored work will begin on the distribution portion of the system.  Power outages could last into Wednesday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, alex said:

What a wild day. Makes me truly appreciate those who say "don't wish for crazy storms." All of Bretton Woods is without power and expected to stay that way for 4-7 days, and now I have to deal with the cleanup. Pretty sure I'm going to have to replace furnaces, hot water heaters? etc in both houses. My brand new cabin had a foot of water on the main level, which means we probably will need to replace the ridiculously expensive reclaimed wood floor we put in. Previous owner told us the house didn't flood during Irene which I now have to believe was a complete sack of BS. Any estimate of how much water we got? I can't believe how quickly the river came up... And how quickly it went back down. 

Picture from this morning attached - that was about a foot and a half lower than the peak

9627C37A-65DC-493D-BD54-DAD720116345.jpeg

oh man, sorry to see that Alex, best of luck with the recovery efforts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeez Alex as I told you on the phone I'm so sorry. Now I'm worried that if it flooded during Irene and then flooded with seven or eight inches of rain in this past storm how often truly will it flood since you are in that flat area near the river. I wonder if this is a once in ten year event or 25 year event or more. Although seven or eight inches of rain is a huge amount it's not something that we don't see from time to time. Maybe some of the other guys could comment on how unusual this is and  the realistic return time is on this kind of flood that you had.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Jeez Alex as I told you on the phone I'm so sorry. Now I'm worried that if it flooded during Irene and then flooded with seven or eight inches of rain in this past storm how often truly will it flood since you are in that flat area near the river. I wonder if this is a once in ten year event or 25 year event or more. Although seven or eight inches of rain is a huge amount it's not something that we don't see from time to time. Maybe some of the other guys could comment on how unusual this is and  the realistic return time is on this kind of flood that you had.

Thanks buddy. Definitely something I'd be interested in. The fire department said this was historic and similar to Irene but I do wonder. I can't prevent this from happening again but I can certainly be prepared. 

Some mangled flakes/sleet at the moment 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎10‎/‎27‎/‎2017 at 8:52 AM, J.Spin said:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Will start to see some white in the higher elevations with temperature profiles finally cold enough to support snow in the higher elevations. This flow will also be favorable for some lake effect moisture off of Lake Ontario.

 

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing to the base of Stowe per coworkers.

Nice lake enhanced band.

 

We’re getting into that post-storm period that was talked about last week, and it’s looking like the forecasts suggested.  I actually stopped in at the forum because I can see snow crashing out all along the spine within the past half hour or so.  Along with PF’s pictures you can also see snow falling on the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Jeez Alex as I told you on the phone I'm so sorry. Now I'm worried that if it flooded during Irene and then flooded with seven or eight inches of rain in this past storm how often truly will it flood since you are in that flat area near the river. I wonder if this is a once in ten year event or 25 year event or more. Although seven or eight inches of rain is a huge amount it's not something that we don't see from time to time. Maybe some of the other guys could comment on how unusual this is and  the realistic return time is on this kind of flood that you had.

Much different topography than there, but the Farmington co-op is only 2 months short of 125 years, so its data might be a bit useful.  I don't have access to storm data, just daily rainfall, so I looked for big days that might logically be part of multi-day rains, limiting the span to 3 consecutive days (except for April 2007 which began late on the 15th and ended early on the 18th.)  A 3-day period in which day 2 had little/no precip was considered as 2 events.  I don't think I missed any 4-inchers but may have inadvertently combined two close-together events.

Farmington's biggest on record is 9.96" in the big-snow-to-bigger-rain mess of post-Christmas 1969.  I'm suspicious of that total, as nowhere had over 6.52" except MWN (10.24" but hardly analogous to a co-op at 480'.)  I think it unlikely that Farmington got 50% more than any other non-mountain location.  I could easily believe 6-7", thus:

The co-op has recorded 4 events of 6"+, the largest after 1969 was 7.89" in the mid-June deluge of 1998.  Third is a probable TC-related 6.63" in Sept. 1932 and 4th is April 2007 with 6.07".  8 other storms dumped 5-5.77", and 23 after that had 4-4.94".  Like most areas with long term records, the more recent decades (1980s and forward) have had somewhat more than earlier, though the only decade with 3 storms 5"+ is the 60s.  The 1990s have 5 storms 4"+, but the current decade is at 4 with 2+ years remaining.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

We’re getting into that post-storm period that was talked about last week, and it’s looking like the forecasts suggested.  I actually stopped in at the forum because I can see snow crashing out all along the spine within the past half hour or so.  Along with PF’s pictures you can also see snow falling on the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam.

I was thinking you might be seeing some graupel or something this evening as some of those echos blew up over over your favorable location.

IMG_7222.thumb.PNG.f71a04eded2c61b6420a625db3365195.PNG

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Much different topography than there, but the Farmington co-op is only 2 months short of 125 years, so its data might be a bit useful.  I don't have access to storm data, just daily rainfall, so I looked for big days that might logically be part of multi-day rains, limiting the span to 3 consecutive days (except for April 2007 which began late on the 15th and ended early on the 18th.)  A 3-day period in which day 2 had little/no precip was considered as 2 events.  I don't think I missed any 4-inchers but may have inadvertently combined two close-together events.

Farmington's biggest on record is 9.96" in the big-snow-to-bigger-rain mess of post-Christmas 1969.  I'm suspicious of that total, as nowhere had over 6.52" except MWN (10.24" but hardly analogous to a co-op at 480'.)  I think it unlikely that Farmington got 50% more than any other non-mountain location.  I could easily believe 6-7", thus:

The co-op has recorded 4 events of 6"+, the largest after 1969 was 7.89" in the mid-June deluge of 1998.  Third is a probable TC-related 6.63" in Sept. 1932 and 4th is April 2007 with 6.07".  8 other storms dumped 5-5.77", and 23 after that had 4-4.94".  Like most areas with long term records, the more recent decades (1980s and forward) have had somewhat more than earlier, though the only decade with 3 storms 5"+ is the 60s.  The 1990s have 5 storms 4"+, but the current decade is at 4 with 2+ years remaining.

 

Great work thanks.  This event up near Mt Washington was acerbated by the fact that the area got 4ish of rainfall just a few days before.  So the ground was saturated and the streams were still running high.  The Whites  probably got 10" of rain in a week.  Your research shows that this was a rare event.  What can make big rainfall events worse also is snowmelt happening at the same time.  So a 5" storm coming at spring thaw could probably equal something much bigger!  So snowmelt and how much rain has fallen within a say week before the big events are wildcards...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, eyewall said:

I will be home tomorrow finally. Got word of ice/graupel in Williston but it was 47F

 

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if we got some of that at the house today as well, but I wasn’t around to confirm it so I can’t say for sure.  In any event, I saw that the moisture was still pushing into the mountains here, and with the temperatures dropping into the 30s F now I just went out to check during one of the heavier bursts.

 

http://jandeproductions.com/2017/31OCT17A.gif

 

Sure enough, there were some partially frozen aggregates coming down, so that confirms a trace for today’s records.  It’s interesting to note that if we hadn’t picked up any frozen today that would have been the first time in the 12 years we’ve been here that we didn’t get any frozen precipitation in October.  So that streak continues for now, but it’s still 12 days later than the mean, and of course it’s the latest “first frozen precipitation” we’ve seen here.  I guess with as warm as this October was, it’s nice to even get anything frozen, and at least the snowfall season is officially underway here.

 

We’ve definitely been getting some moisture out of this flow off the lakes today – there was steady rain at times tonight during Trick-or-Treating in town.  My rain gauge indicates that we’ve picked up about a tenth of an inch since I emptied it this morning.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I was thinking you might be seeing some graupel or something this evening as some of those echos blew up over over your favorable location.

IMG_7222.thumb.PNG.f71a04eded2c61b6420a625db3365195.PNG

 

Roger that – we were probably in town when that heavier stuff was coming down, but just confirmed some frozen now during another burst (see my previous post).

 

Even though there’s nothing overtly cold coming up per the models, we’re getting to the point where even average temperatures will mean snow potential in the mountains – Mansfield point forecast lows at elevation are below freezing on a number of day over the next week, so there’s almost always going to be something to watch now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, powderfreak said:

For posterity sake...I drove from Toronto to Stowe (5am to 3pm) through wind and rain today.  Wife said it was bad at home but I didn't register it till I saw it.  Immediately knew it might be days without power.  We made a snap decision to visit my folks in Albany for two nights instead of stay without power.  Stowe Mountain Resort was telling everyone to stay home from work today and maybe tomorrow.  My wife's work was closed too.  

In my travels, Stowe and Waterbury Center had the worst damage.  Maybe some localized pocket?  Couldn't travel 100 yards without seeing uprooted or snapped trees.

 

As is typical, we actually didn’t have a ton of wind in our immediate neighborhood during the event.  That’s speaking relatively of course for this event, but we didn’t even get enough to blow down any branches in the yard.  Of course, all it takes is one tree to make a mess of things, and sure enough, there was one about halfway up our road that decided to go, and it took the utility lines down in that area.  Even bigger than the hassle of losing power was the fact that it left the road impassable for automobiles.  Normally we’d just run out with our chainsaws and take a tree right out of the way – but of course that’s not an option when power lines are involved.  That was a rude awakening to find the road blocked Monday morning, so I had to hop on the bike to get into town and catch the bus.  But, at least that was an option.  Pics:

 

30OCT17A.jpg

 

30OCT17B.jpg

 

It was only today that the road was finally cleared, and I think we got prioritized on that since the road was literally impassable for autos, and people were stranded.  It’s still going to be a while for power to be returned apparently.  I think the estimates are sometime this weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love the dedication J.

Tree down blocking your drive to work so you biked to Waterbury and got the GMTA shuttle to BTV.  Props!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like an inch today, sounds about right for passing snow showers.

This is actually about the time I start talling snow for the mountain but I want to wait till snowmaking starts to start the snowfall tally.

			 				Station            Precip   Temperature   Present         Snow                   24 Hrs   Max Min Cur   Weather     New Total SWE...Vermont...Mount Mansfield     0.16    34  27  28                1.0   1		

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0