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michsnowfreak

Winter of 2017-18 discussion, thoughts

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In a prior post, Hoosier posted stats for warm La Nina Novembers and what the winters ended up doing. For the research for our local winter outlook at NWS Chicago, I did something similar. First I grouped all winters of the 1950-2017 ONI from the CPC page into warmest 22, middle 23 and coldest 22 at Chicago. Then I grouped the Niña episodes of those terciles into warm (9), near normal (6) and cold (6). Here are the November h5 composites, November climate division temperature anomalies, and subsequent DJF h5 composite anomalies.

From these graphics, it appears there will be utility in how the mid/upper pattern sets up in November to potentially give clues to the winter pattern. If a big northeast Pacific/AK vortex sets up, that could increase odds for warmer to well above normal winter, and perhaps within range of normal to below if sustained Aleutian (-WPO) or -EPO ridging sets up. 4520824f60a4a1c10740503ed8ab18e7.jpgd5adbed38ab67728924630bb65476384.jpg233e0a927bd3d25a8fe35ea6e7105de1.jpg

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

In a prior post, Hoosier posted stats for warm La Nina Novembers and what the winters ended up doing. For the research for our local winter outlook at NWS Chicago, I did something similar. First I grouped all winters of the 1950-2017 ONI from the CPC page into warmest 22, middle 23 and coldest 22 at Chicago. Then I grouped the Niña episodes of those terciles into warm (9), near normal (6) and cold (6). Here are the November h5 composites, November climate division temperature anomalies, and subsequent DJF h5 composite anomalies.

From these graphics, it appears there will be utility in how the mid/upper pattern sets up in November to potentially give clues to the winter pattern. If a big northeast Pacific/AK vortex sets up, that could increase odds for warmer to well above normal winter, and perhaps within range of normal to below if sustained Aleutian (-WPO) or -EPO ridging sets up. 4520824f60a4a1c10740503ed8ab18e7.jpgd5adbed38ab67728924630bb65476384.jpg233e0a927bd3d25a8fe35ea6e7105de1.jpg

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I will take the middle image for the win. I can work with the bottom one too. I will hard pass on the top one though :lol:

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I will take the middle image for the win. I can work with the bottom one too. I will hard pass on the top one though

Yeah I'm hoping for a more classic Niña pattern this winter, would be fine to have an 07-08 like pattern. It seems like there's some cause for optimism that November won't be an all out torch like last year.

Just realized I forgot 08-09 in cold Niña composite but it doesn't really change the results I showed.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Yeah I'm hoping for a more classic Niña pattern this winter, would be fine to have an 07-08 like pattern. It seems like there's some cause for optimism that November won't be an all out torch like last year.

Just realized I forgot 08-09 in cold Niña composite but it doesn't really change the results I showed.

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07-08 would be a dream, that winter had everything. Also included the biggest snowstorm I ever seen in my life, Mount Pleasant MI had 20" of snow with the Super Tuesday storm.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Yeah I'm hoping for a more classic Niña pattern this winter, would be fine to have an 07-08 like pattern. It seems like there's some cause for optimism that November won't be an all out torch like last year.

Just realized I forgot 08-09 in cold Niña composite but it doesn't really change the results I showed.

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What are your thoughts on Cohens theory of Siberian Snow cover affecting our winters? From my research it seems Canadian snow cover has a much larger impact on our winters than Siberia does. Any thoughts on this? 

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What are your thoughts on Cohens theory of Siberian Snow cover affecting our winters? From my research it seems Canadian snow cover has a much larger impact on our winters than Siberia does. Any thoughts on this? 

The SAI theory has simply not worked out the past few winters so perhaps it's not as useful as was thought. It makes sense conceptually that Canadian snow cover would correlate to winter temperatures because that's our source region in times without true cross polar flow, which is fairly often. So Canadian snow cover will be another variable to watch moving forward.

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It's hard to fully read all of the model years in your outlook examples, but it's interesting to note that there does seem to be quite a correlation between November's temperature departure and the following Winter here. There is little to no correlation in a non enso year. And by correlation I mean temps. Cold November's mean a cold (but not necessarily snowy) Winter and likewise a mild November means a mild (but not necessarily low snow) winter. Still, the most favorable for winter lovers, in a Nina, is a cold November.

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3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

I was going to post this last week and forgot. His thoughts are kind of what I'm thinking for this winter also, only change would be to put a really small area of "Way Above Average" snowfall about 10 miles wide from Detroit south to just north of the Ohio border.

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29 minutes ago, slow poke said:

I was going to post this last week and forgot. His thoughts are kind of what I'm thinking for this winter also, only change would be to put a really small area of "Way Above Average" snowfall about 10 miles wide from Detroit south to just north of the Ohio border.

SE flow LES off of Erie as a recurring theme, or does that happen to by yby?? do tell 

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8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

SE flow LES off of Erie as a recurring theme, or does that happen to by yby?? do tell 

Alternative explanation:  the michsnowfreak jackpot

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53 minutes ago, slow poke said:

This...........Bet on it.

Haha.  Does seem like Wyandotte has had an ability to avoid snow minimums, relatively speaking.

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11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Not sure why these would be different, but I like my enhanced versions better, lol. Especially the precip for my region.

 

20171019 NOAA Precip Anoms for DJF.jpg

20171019 NOAA Precip Anoms for JFM.jpg

20171019 NOAA Precip Anoms for FMA.jpg

Hmm, seems like the difference is that yours is a 2 outcome outlook... either above or below average with no "normal."  Never seen that before.

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Figures the first year I move out of the midwest it could be a big year there for winter. :rolleyes:



nah, I spent a couple grand on a full suspension fat tire bike so I can ride on the snow, so at least N. IL will find the screw hole. Teleconnections should factor in forum members snowblower and winter sports equipment purchases.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're in Upstates forum region, come say hi. 

Been posting in the New England thread, but I'll come pop my head in the Upstate as well.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hmm, seems like the difference is that yours is a 2 outcome outlook... either above or below average with no "normal."  Never seen that before.

Those outlooks are from the experimental page.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

And the DJF trimonthly

off02_temp.gif.a751a022b63fcfc2c5f079b0751a9ab8.gif

off02_prcp.gif.89b53947a2010219cf8cf2c9f90f1163.gif

I can buy into this outlook, though I would probably fill in a bit of KS/NE with some above average precip, and probably eliminate some in the E ND/MN area. As for the temps I would probably lower the SW a bit and increase chances along the Carolina coast/FL

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Haha.  Does seem like Wyandotte has had an ability to avoid snow minimums, relatively speaking.

The I-94 corridor in SE MI has been a magnet of sorts for lake effect in recent years & overall synoptic jackpots. Last winter, as unenjoyable as it was, I racked up 41.6” of snow despite the warmth. The 94 corridor definitely jackpotted that winter. The year before, another warm winter, while I racked up 35” it was a very south to north gradient, with Detroits northern burbs easily getting 50”+. The takeaway from this is that even in warm winters, total snowfall is not necessarily an issue. Its all about storm tracks, timing, etc. So we muddled through the last 2 sucky winters and made them tolerable. But what I wouldn’t give to go back to the glory days of 2007-2015 (minus 2011-12 of course lol).

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I'm becoming a little more excited for this region for the winter...I enjoyed RC's post above, it looks like initially that this November will avoid the AK black hole.  I got a bit nervous when that started developing this month, luckily that looks temporary.  I'm hoping I can post an outlook of sorts by early November, although regardless I'm hoping for something different than the last two winters. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I'm becoming a little more excited for this region for the winter...I enjoyed RC's post above, it looks like initially that this November will avoid the AK black hole.  I got a bit nervous when that started developing this month, luckily that looks temporary.  I'm hoping I can post an outlook of sorts by early November, although regardless I'm hoping for something different than the last two winters. 

The IRI certainly likes your area for COLD! That'd be a big change right there. (Pretty sure it's for this winter not 2019)

DMRlY-XW4AA8hIa.jpg

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