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dmillz25

Hurricane Jose

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Don't write Jose off just yet. There is really nothing that forces Jose east. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative along with the NAO heading in a positive direction leading to increased blocking which the models will correct for in the coming days.

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Latest EURO gave up on that,high latitude loop idea and ultimately gets picked up and kicked out after nearing benchmark.

06Z GFS further east, but stronger, than 0Z.

CMC weakest , but closest for us.

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1 hour ago, Metsfan said:

Don't write Jose off just yet. There is really nothing that forces Jose east. The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative along with the NAO heading in a positive direction leading to increased blocking which the models will correct for in the coming days.

Too foolish to write off Jose just yet even if the models are east of the area.

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14 hours ago, rclab said:

I lived on 75th street off of 11th ave. in dyker heights up until 63. You could play stickball in that street there were so few cars in the fifties.

only the big kids age 13+ played in the street we Younger kids played stickball in a community drive we called the big alley.

We ran our spauldings into the ground. Or at least until there once high bounce was a memory.

Wow I used to live on 75th (Bay Ridge Parkway) between 5th and 6th Avenue. Great area. Taught at the school on 4th Ave.

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CMC still the closest for us with Jose.  EURO looping again over the BN SSTA's nearby.   GFS rain field stays over the water.

CMC has Maria doing an IRMA on Florida by the 24th.

 

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28 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CMC still the closest for us with Jose.  EURO looping again over the BN SSTA's nearby.   GFS rain field stays over the water.

CMC has Maria doing an IRMA on Florida by the 24th.

 

Euro is the closest

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The NAM has up to an inch here but best spot is Montauk Pt., which could get some respectable totals.

GFS is just drizzle here.

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Still saying this ends up going back east and this is an overcorrection.  Don't like the hurricane models wanting no part of this and many of the EPS members being east of the Op last night.  

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Anecdotally speaking, the past several days are a dish of humid and quasi-tropical airmass. Dews in upper 60s to 70 abound, and atmosphere is milky cloud ridden . So if Jose wants to strike it's obviously abetted by a favorable airmass ahead of it. 

Not comparing sloppy/mostly east bound Jose to others, but I remember with Gloria several days of cloudy, murky, rainy weather. History has it that 1938 came into similar airmass. 

Whatever happens with Jose HIS path up here is obviously made a bit more pleasant with the existing airmass. This is no blue-skies, low-dew, September weather pattern he is headed in to. 

IMG_7627.PNG

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. 

People think this is going OTS because of the hurricane models lol

The winds and rain bands are going to expand as the storm transitions.

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. 

What did the winds look like on the 12z Euro? I'm assuming nothing super serious. Maybe 45mph gusts in the city?

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29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Both the Euro and NAM bring a significant event into the area. I'm kind of shocked at the lack of posts in this thread. 

Think it'll be too far east for us to see much. It's already tracking slightly east of track. 

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The 18z NAM, 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF all now bring a significant feeder band into the NYC area late Monday into Tuesday, almost like a PRE. Several inches of rain are possible, and the convection should mix down some stronger winds.

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22 minutes ago, Manny said:

What did the winds look like on the 12z Euro? I'm assuming nothing super serious. Maybe 45mph gusts in the city?

My guess is 40-45 mph gusts tops.  And I still think this ticks east anyway.  This will probably end up scaring the hell out of everyone for no reason 

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19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My guess is 40-45 mph gusts tops.  And I still think this ticks east anyway.  This will probably end up scaring the hell out of everyone for no reason 

Euro looks like the gusts will be stronger on Long Island than what SE New England will see anyway.  50-55mph gusts with 2+ inches of rain sounds like a strong possibility.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Euro looks like the gusts will be stronger on Long Island than what SE New England will see anyway.  50-55mph gusts with 2+ inches of rain sounds like a strong possibility.

 

Yeah I think E LI as of now may see that.  The 5 boroughs though is probably low 40s.  There may be a gust or two higher but that's also assuming we don't see this jog east somewhat 

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