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Hurricane Jose

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS

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18z Navgem and GEFS have shifted west. I believe the 12z euro shifted slightly east. It will be interesting to see what the 00z showes from dr. no.  Rough surf is pretty much a given, we could be in for a few more surprises. Interesting to track for sure. We could get an expanded wind field up here with mid-latitude interaction. 

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CNN meteorologist said this AM, storm is a week away and we will not know for 4 days where it is going. Seems it is just 5 days away.

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56 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CNN meteorologist said this AM, storm is a week away and we will not know for 4 days where it is going. Seems it is just 5 days away.

fake weather...

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54 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

With the Euro still OTS I'm not investing yet.

The Euro isn't OTS, might want to check that again. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro isn't OTS, might want to check that again. 

Any worthwhile effects are offshore, all I saw was a very weak low backing in D7+.

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Just now, NortheastPAWx said:

Any worthwhile effects are offshore, all I saw was a very weak low backing in D7+.

Define very weak

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13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Define very weak

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In terms of most of the forum away from the coast that's a big meh. Even the coast, 30 knot winds? Maybe some erosion but that's about it...

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5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

In terms of most of the forum away from the coast that's a big meh. Even the coast, 30 knot winds? Maybe some erosion but that's about it...

Is it OTS or very weak? I lost track. :axe:

In any event, it's over an inch of rain in most areas with tropical storm force winds, even on the 00z Euro. Sorry if that's not severe enough to get your attention.

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I am going to watch predicted Wave Heights for Buoy 44025, in order to monitor whether predicted danger near waters here is on the increase/decrease, according to the GFS runs.

Current prediction for Tues., PM, when it is suppose to peak, is 25ft.

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Just now, CIK62 said:

I am going to watch predicted Wave Heights for Buoy 44025, in order to monitor whether predicted danger near waters here is on the increase/decrease, according to the GFS runs.

Current prediction for Tues., PM, when it is suppose to peak, is 25ft.

I used to like to go to the shore when a storm was off shore...I knew it was a big storm when the waves crashed over the sea wall around the Belt Parkway near the VZ bridge...I played in a little league on Bay 8th st. and was able to see when the waves were coming over the sea wall...I also saw the bridge being built...

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Nice to have our own thread for this!!!

im still holding on to my ideas from the main thread. 

I like the look of the Euro, if we are going to be directly Impacted it's by more of an ET weaker storm. Our coastal waters will crush any storm that isn't racing full bore out of the Gulf Stream.

if it does end up directly impacting us I think it's going to get way more attention than it deserves because it's "named"

Even along the coast, without the name designation I don't think anyone would be able to tell the difference with a normal early season nor'easter 

 

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

I used to like to go to the shore when a storm was off shore...I knew it was a big storm when the waves crashed over the sea wall around the Belt Parkway near the VZ bridge...I played in a little league on Bay 8th st. and was able to see when the waves were coming over the sea wall...I also saw the bridge being built...

Unc.

I still remember Fort Lafayette that sadly had to be demolished to become the base of the Brooklyn Tower.

i spent my high school Summer's in New Utrecht and Lafayette paying for my regular school year sins.

i watched the Brooklyn tower go up from there while I was supposed to be paying attention in class.

I have a coop just opposite the bridge on the Brroklyn side.

regarding NJwx85's question on Belle. I believe I was fishing with a buddy of the bulkhead in Great Kills. I had my old battery weather radio with me. We listened to its progress up the coast and decided to leave early. From what I remember there were some squally showers and not much wind. 

Rich

 

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2 hours ago, rclab said:

Unc.

I still remember Fort Lafayette that sadly had to be demolished to become the base of the Brooklyn Tower.

i spent my high school Summer's in New Utrecht and Lafayette paying for my regular school year sins.

i watched the Brooklyn tower go up from there while I was supposed to be paying attention in class.

I have a coop just opposite the bridge on the Brroklyn side.

regarding NJwx85's question on Belle. I believe I was fishing with a buddy of the bulkhead in Great Kills. I had my old battery weather radio with me. We listened to its progress up the coast and decided to leave early. From what I remember there were some squally showers and not much wind. 

Rich

 

I went to New Utrecht from 1964-68...there was a storm in the 70's before Belle that blew over some trees in Brooklyn...When I was 12 or 13 there was a storm with winds strong enough to blow off about 100 rubber balls that were hit up the school roof up the block from my house...we would loose balls up the roof all the time...the balls fell into the school yard and the wind helped them stick into the chain link fence on 64th st...we played stickball every day and seeing all those balls for the taking was like winning money...

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3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like a possible analog, anyone here old enough to remember this one?

Image result for hurricane belle

My memory of Belle isn't so much the storm itself but how absolutely beautiful it was for two days afterwards. Many of the people here won't remember how horrible the air quality frequently was around here during that time and the crystal clear air and deep blue skies made such a lasting impression on me after a mostly dingy air summer. I'm not a big fan of the malaise era emissions controls on cars but it sure did make a noticeable difference. There were many days where you could hardly see the city skyline from Queens or Brooklyn...

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Well he's a hurricane again so we can update the title of the thread. 

Pretty much the perfect track for very large surf. Could be some pretty serious beach erosion with the new moon and day after day of monster surf. (10' plus on Tuesday and Wednesday)

If you have the chance those days and aren't a surfer like myself I still recommend heading to the beach for one of those high tides. Beach washovers are one of the coolest weather anomalies we have around here 

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like a possible analog, anyone here old enough to remember this one?

Image result for hurricane belle

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996)#/media/File%3AEdouard_1996_track.png

i like the analog allot more

 

Bluewave and I talked about Belle last week. Apparently it was allot more bark then bite which seems to be the case with most storms around here (sandy and 38 notable exceptions)

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27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Wave height at Buoy 44025 down to 22ft. from this morning's 25ft. prediction.

Peaked at 33' during sandy and 31' during Irene. 

It cant get much bigger out there the water is surprisingly shallow and waves (usually) break in water twice as deep as they are tall. It's surprising that Irene had wave heights similar in height Sandy. However Irene had a captured fetch as the storm was moving in the same direction the storm was on the east side. So the swell on that side rode with the hurricane getting bigger and bigger as it traveled.

 

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like a possible analog, anyone here old enough to remember this one?

Image result for hurricane belle

I remember this one well.  I was living on LI at the time in East Northport on the north shore.  The eye actually crossed LI in western Suffolk Cty. during the middle of the night.  I remember the strong smell of seaweed in the air as it passed.  The storm was not overwhelming in its strength but did cause major power outages and lots of trees down.  Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was much more dramatic and was probably the strongest Hurricane to hit LI since 1938.  Only Sandy has outdone Gloria.

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

I went to New Utrecht from 1964-68...there was a storm in the 70's before Belle that blew over some trees in Brooklyn...When I was 12 or 13 there was a storm with winds strong enough to blow off about 100 rubber balls that were hit up the school roof up the block from my house...we would loose balls up the roof all the time...the balls fell into the school yard and the wind helped them stick into the chain link fence on 64th st...we played stickball every day and seeing all those balls for the taking was like winning money...

I lived on 75th street off of 11th ave. in dyker heights up until 63. You could play stickball in that street there were so few cars in the fifties.

only the big kids age 13+ played in the street we Younger kids played stickball in a community drive we called the big alley.

We ran our spauldings into the ground. Or at least until there once high bounce was a memory.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This will be the 2nd time this season that NYC will be teased with a hurricane close by if Jose misses. You know what they say , 3 strikes and you are out.

 

Something is going to give

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