Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

[nycwinter]

all the indicators showed strengthening i just found it odd the nhc was hedging their bets on being conservative in their prediction as to the storm intensity...

[Radtechwxman]

The completion of ERC and insane water temps is really being felt now. Now how strong does Irma get before increasing wind shear counteracts that

[USCG RS]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 6:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 5:42:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°43'N 81°16'W (23.7167N 81.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 67 statute miles (108 km) to the SSE (151°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,480m (8,136ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 339° at 113kts (From the NNW at ~ 130.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 5:47:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 5kts (From the SSE at 6mph)

Eye temp rose 2 degrees in 1.5 hrs.

[Amped]

Nevrmind, Euro west, Tampa screwed.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna be another FL keys hurricane.

Looks like those who didn't bail on the RI made a good call.

Kudos.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Nevrmind, Euro west, Tampa screwed.

 

Going to be a mess there with property damage even if the eye trickles east.  If the anecdotal reports are right about a lot of people not taking it seriously and not boarding up.  

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Nevrmind, Euro west, Tampa screwed.

 

Horrible. Shear might be affecting Irma by the time it gets to Tampa, but the surge takes a long time to wind down. And it will try to fight the shear off as much as possible on its way up. 

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

all the indicators showed strengthening i just found it odd the nhc was hedging their bets on being conservative in their prediction as to the storm intensity...

Ok.  We get it.

[jm1220]

And also Sarasota, Bradenton, Fort Myers, Naples, etc on the way to Tampa.

This will leave a massive damage and death toll when all is set and done, I'm afraid.

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 6:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 5:42:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°43'N 81°16'W (23.7167N 81.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 67 statute miles (108 km) to the SSE (151°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,480m (8,136ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 339° at 113kts (From the NNW at ~ 130.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 5:47:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 5kts (From the SSE at 6mph)
 

Eye temp rose 2 degrees in 1.5 hrs.

Possibly the most important ob here... given radar and satellite presentation of the eye wall, along with this data, it appears that the top is about to blow off of this thing again. Modeled nearly perfectly for days with significant RI between Florida and Cuba.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is also going to become a pretty significant N Gulf coast LF, too.

[Morris]

Look at the colors of the wind barbs on tropical tidbits between the two passes. The winds really increased and expanded.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Did folks up on the panhandle take any precautions whatsoever?

[jm1220]

Good point-Tallahassee will take the final landfall on the chin too. 

[DCAlexandria]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did folks up on the panhandle take any precautions whatsoever?

Less hope so. Sliver lining is between Tallahassee and Jax its less populated.

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Going to be a mess there with property damage even if the eye trickles east.  If the anecdotal reports are right about a lot of people not taking it seriously and not boarding up.  

The mindset there is crazy, spoke to some friends there earlier "been thru 100's of hurricanes...plan on having a hurricane party" 

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did folks up on the panhandle take any precautions whatsoever?

Earlier an individual asked if he should leave to Orlando, or Jacksonville, but that's the only thing I've really seen in terms of people discussing the panhandle. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ok.  We get it.

I mean the reality is that the wind forecast is probably most important for the Keys right now, and it's the surge that is going to be the trouble up the coast. The difference between 125 mph and 140 mph is probably academic in that respect. But wind gets the headlines.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Good point-Tallahassee will take the final landfall on the chin too. 

Even if shear weakens it, probably still going to be a 3 up there....strong 2, anyway....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Earlier an individual asked if he should leave to Orlando, or Jacksonville, but that's the only thing I've really seen in terms of people discussing the panhandle. 

They could get a sneaky disaster

[wxsniss]

0z Euro would be very bad for surge in Tampa...

[CoreyandFrosty]

 

I know the track keeps shifting west. But, doesnt this show 100 mph winds in the Atlanta Ga area?

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...56318271953436672/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

[Keysfins]

Not sure if it matters much, but low tide in KW is at 7:06 AM local time. 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580&name=Key West&state=FL

 

Tides can be really odd all through the Keys, with the passages between Gulf side and Atlantic side. 

 

As as example, Marathon has HIGH tide at 4:43 AM local time:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8723970&name=Vaca Key, Florida Bay&state=FL

 

 

[Morris]

Dvorak up to 6.3

[Amped]

NE peninsula also very surge prone.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, CoreyandFrosty said:

 

I know the track keeps shifting west. But, doesnt this show 100 mph winds in the Atlanta Ga area?

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...56318271953436672/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png

Those winds are at least a few thousand feet above ground.  Won't get 100% of that at ground level.

[Heisy]

4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Very bad would be an understatement.

Aren't they getting Easterly winds though, at least until the eye passes? I mean obviously a giant Cat 4 coming close is going to increase surge, just asking though

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

NE peninsula also very surge prone.

Very shallow shelf up there.

[Benadrill]

What time are the surges supposed to happen?

[superjames1992]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did folks up on the panhandle take any precautions whatsoever?

Not too much.  The water and bread have been sold out all week and gas is in short supply now, but overall there isn't much going on as far as preparations (for one thing, we mostly looked in the clear until the last day or two).  If this were to landfall as a major hurricane up here, it'd be pretty bad,  Hermine was had enough.  This part of Florida rarely gets hurricanes, much less strong ones.  The mossy oaks will be decimated.