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Fall 2017 Banter Thread


WeatherFeen2000
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11 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Since Lead averages 180 inches of snow annually and Rapid City about 50 inches...while the two are separated by just 32 miles as the crow flies; the forecasts are actually much harder here...

That's less than the distance between Kennedy Airport and White Plains.

I would actually be happy with the 50 even if White Plains got 180 lol- I guess you have to have low expectations out here when most years we don't even reach 30.

 

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8 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Be careful what you wish for; you just might get it...

I think the closest thing to that I've experienced was 1993-94.  If I remember right, JFK got about 45 inches of snow while LGA got 65 inches, not sure what White Plains got though.

 

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45 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I think the closest thing to that I've experienced was 1993-94.  If I remember right, JFK got about 45 inches of snow while LGA got 65 inches, not sure what White Plains got though.

 

I was in state college that winter. We had 108". Snow on the ground for over 3 months straight and at least one storm a week. 

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3 hours ago, Dakota said:

Here's a *really* good one:

Snowfall 2004-05:

Brookhaven / Upton: 78.5"

JFK: 36.8"

The other really interesting contrast that winter was with the January temperatures. NYC had the 7th warmest first half of January followed by 4th coldest 2nd half.

59f77edf82929_Screenshot2017-10-30at3_26_40PM.png.c6c9828d8b5e2aff5e0b04c7a3ec9e20.png

59f77eed441ae_Screenshot2017-10-30at3_27_26PM.png.5a9816716ed0a6df88e968560d35e44a.png

 

 

 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Dakota said:

That 78.5" of snow was squeezed out of just 9.85" of precipitation from December 1 - March 31.

0.5" of the snow did  fall in November 2004; for purposes of precision.

Since Long Island usually sees only 25 to maybe 30 percent of their winter precip in the form of snow (in an average year); to reach 80% was pretty amazing.

 

Maximization of snowfall potential has been a running theme during the 2000's. JFK only had 40 days with below normal temperatures the last two winters with 72.3" of snow. 

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1 hour ago, Dakota said:

I don't know about you; but I'd say most of it has been luck, i.e. random chance.

Remember 1976-77...as cold as ice...and very paltry snow amounts around here.

Or even December 1989...which I think was unusually cold...but practically snowless.

Day to day excellence is absolutely meaningless.  One must succeed only when it counts.

Just an exceptional era of blocking since 2000 both in the North Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The record SST warmth has also helped to provide copious moisture and energy for our winter storms which was lacking in earlier era winters.

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5 hours ago, Dakota said:

Here's another bad (or good, depending on your perspective) one:

Snowfall 2012-13

Islip: 46.9"

JFK: 17.6"

________

It is snowing at a pretty decent clip here right now.

I didn't see anyone on the evening news predict it...

Some things never change...

blah that was a really bad one, I can't stand <20" snowfall seasons, most of that came in one storm that was predicted to drop 3 feet of snow in NYC and it ended up in Suffolk County instead.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dakota said:

I don't know about you; but I'd say most of it has been luck, i.e. random chance.

Remember 1976-77...as cold as ice...and very paltry snow amounts around here.

Or even December 1989...which I think was unusually cold...but practically snowless.

Day to day excellence is absolutely meaningless.  One must succeed only when it counts.

No, it's probably not chance since total precip has been on a steep increase since the 70s.  I remember the 70s/80s and it was an entirely different climate back then- big precip events were much much more rare.  There's been a huge increase in 2"+ and even 3"+ precip events.  There's been a big increase in total annual precip too.

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Dakota said:

It is probably a little wetter than it once was; but does that really factor so substantially into the augmented snow totals?

For example, if the average rainfall was say 42" in 1975 and it is say 44" nowadays; that means only 2 more inches of rain spread over 12 months.

Since most snow falls in a three month interval (Dec - Feb)...the increase there is just 25% of the 2" increase or 0.50".

Then factor in the fact that just 25% of the winter's precip is snow on Long Island in an average year anyway...and you are left with just 0.125 inches of new snow above the old mean in L.E. terms; or a paltry 1 1/4 inch increase in average annual snowfall per your theory.

But average increase of annual snowfall totals vs more frequency of big precip snow "bombs" are two different things.  As you know, one big event can make up for an entire season's snowfall (a great example of this was the January 2016 big snow that dumped over 30" here.)

The average annual rainfall went from around 40" during the 70s/80s to around 50" now, which is a pretty significant increase.

The increase in snowfall should be transitional anyway, in a warming climate, we'll eventually get past this stage.  The increasing precip totals, higher humidity levels and higher temps will have much more long term impacts though, including more tropical diseases spreading into our area (we've already been seeing that over the past decade.)

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Soooo snowy....


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
315 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

   SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   MEDFORD               33.5  1015 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   UPTON                 30.9   900 AM  2/09  NWS OFFICE             
   CENTRAL ISLIP         30.7   815 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   COMMACK               29.1   530 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   HUNTINGTON            29.0   630 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   EAST SETAUKET         28.5   641 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   YAPHANK               28.1  1140 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   STONY BROOK           28.0   730 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   ISLIP AIRPORT         27.8   700 AM  2/09  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

I remember some place recorded 40"- might have been CT?

 

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6 minutes ago, Dakota said:

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   HAMDEN                40.0   100 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   MILFORD               38.0   615 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   CLINTONVILLE          37.0  1040 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   OXFORD                36.2   600 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   NORTH BRANFORD        36.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   MERIDEN               36.0   200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   YALESVILLE            35.0   909 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   WALLINGFORD           35.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   NEW HAVEN             34.3   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT 

 

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC                 
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER        
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER

That's amazing 

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18 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Thnxs so much WeatherFeen!  Did you decide on that job offer I made you last week? 

I know I originally promised you $10 a week; but because you drive such a hard bargain; I've decided to double what I was offering and make it $20 a month!

What do you say?

I'm a lot more expensive than that but you never know let me think about it.

 

does anyone want to guess my real name?

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