yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 96-120 is basically over Cuba... got to think Irma is getting shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Strengthening hurricane in the Keys at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 lol EURO at 144 is basically just south of Tampa... very abrupt northerly turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 HEADING NNW AT 144 TOWARDS THE KEYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So long Sloppy Joe's, and everything else in the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Raw T# 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Goodnight everyone. I am assuming Cat 5 upon waking up. Here's to another day of tracking and obsessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 150, landfall in SWFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 First time poster, long time lurker but does anyone else believe the models are having a hard time digesting the new data introduced and may take another run to even out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 A short-term benchmark with some importance is the northern islands. Models suggest that if Irma is going to remain over water north of Cuba, the eye will have to track north of the northernmost islands, while any track over the islands will send Irma into Cuba. So far, there is no sign of any wnw bend. If the bend doesn't start by morning, the islands are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Euro is basically a farther east version of GEM. Overall upper air features more similar to that than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I just have a hard time believing that a storm is going to grind away in Central Cuba yet still make landfall at 940mb in SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I believe these models are just as confused as most of us are haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phimuskapsi Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, bch2014 said: I just have a hard time believing that a storm is going to grind away in Central Cuba yet still make landfall at 940mb in SW FL. Central is the flattest part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This run.....Anyone have any insight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, seether said: This run.....Anyone have any insight? Wait until the 12z. Might be a further westward trend, or it could have overdone the impacts of the data from earlier. Regardless, it has designs on Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Alright agreed, this model is just screaming confusion, im assuming due to the new data introduced. Either way I think FL is taking a major hit one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anyone look at the CMC? Completely west of florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Would wait for the 12z suites to look at trends. Still have quite a ways to go with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The sat presentation and T numbers suggest Irma is nearing cat 5 status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whisp Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 ive been lurking since like page 20 and made an account to ask a question... has anybody noticed that the Japanese model seems to be showing the same trends as GFS & Euro but much earlier. to me it looks like whatever way the JMA goes the other 2 go the same way the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: The sat presentation and T numbers suggest Irma is nearing cat 5 status. next recon takes off in 40 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 IRMA looking pretty. About ready to dance with the islands. I hope the islands can dos-à-dos. http://col.st/0b9aP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, seether said: I believe these models are just as confused as most of us are haha. I saw someone saying earlier that models are better than human beings (or vice versa) and I don't think either is better than the other. Models don't have some magical knowledge from some advanced alien species that we don't know about. All they are is a combo of the data we feed into them plus our knowledge of atmospheric physics- both of which are far from perfect. So if the models are wrong, that is just a reflection of our lack of complete knowledge. They can by definition neither be better than us or worse than us, since they are an artificial construct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 hours ago, Wow said: Trend loop of the hurricane models 06Z--- Wagons West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Please stop with the models are confused or wrong nonsense. EPS mean stays north or Cuba, kicks out, and eventually landfalls east of Panama City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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