yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Landfall just SW of SC/NC border at 126... ILM being punished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Landfall near/on Myrtle Beach. And the 18z/0z looked very similar until after hr 84, that's when it started moving more NE. Miami would want that to happen a couple hours sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On overall track what has been more correct so far . Euro or GFS . I read earlier NHC goes by the euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Landfall in Georgetown, SC at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Kleimax said: Landfall in Georgetown, SC at 126 Goodbye Litchfield beach house ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The models continue to focus more and more on the 500mb cutoff over new England I mentioned last night. Definitely a trend towards a SC/NC landfall. Favors the weak upper low/trough over the southeast. This is causing Irma to pull north towards the trough and then curve NNW at the end towards the coastline after it is left behind. It is left to move around the weak ULL disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Then it moves up into Central NC 132-138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Wow think i get some tropical storm conditions up here on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I wonder what influence Jose is having too, it's gotten closer and closer to Irma each run. If that northeast trough lingers a bit longer or there's more interaction with Jose then Irma could affect even areas north of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 What's the strength at landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jburns said: What's the strength at landfall? 907 at 120 and 931 at 126... but 126, landfall has already been made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 What a pointless tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: What's the strength at landfall? CAT 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: What's the strength at landfall? Somewhere just below 930 mb most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: What's the strength at landfall? Still in the upper 960's as it comes through the triangle. Chilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If it stays far enough off shore once it gets past PBI, it could stay over 28-30C water nearly the entire way. jfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Still in the upper 960's as it comes through the triangle. Chilling. Yeah. The Triangle would be a lot less green after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 FWIW, GEM makes landfall further North in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: FWIW, GEM makes landfall further North in NC AT the NC/SC border around 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Will be interesting to see what weight NHC gives the GFS after this evening's Euro, and any tweaks to the track and cone. It's a really bad dilemma for emergency mgmt and local govts from basically NC down around Florida up to at least Tampa. Roads already jammed in much of Florida, and not being able to declare evacs with enough notice or confidence in other places is every official's nightmare. Prob be a lot of better safe than sorry decisions made over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, TPAwx said: Will be interesting to see what weight NHC gives the GFS after this evening's Euro, and any tweaks to the track and cone. It's a really bad dilemma for emergency mgmt and local govts from basically NC down around Florida up to at least Tampa. Roads already jammed in much of Florida, and not being able to declare evacs with enough notice or confidence in other places is every official's nightmare. Prob be a lot of better safe than sorry decisions made over the next few days. Didn't Hurricane Floyd have this problem? Evacs were made all over the SE and Floyd stayed just offshore enough not to cause huge problems? Or am I remembering that incorrectly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like some dry air and sheer for Irma when she gets to Florida.http://i.imgur.com/6dynUpe.gifv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Didn't Hurricane Floyd have this problem? Evacs were made all over the SE and Floyd stayed just offshore enough not to cause huge problems? Or am I remembering that incorrectly? Yeah I think that was true with Floyd and likely other canes at smaller scales. There's always the implicit risk in putting the masses on the road, because people can die in that process, and of course the cry wolf syndrome sets in if there's no impact. Seems like it's going to be a big test of model skill within the 72 hour window coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 21 hours ago, jojo762 said: 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Didn't Hurricane Floyd have this problem? Evacs were made all over the SE and Floyd stayed just offshore enough not to cause huge problems? Or am I remembering that incorrectly? Floyd did, but it was also at least a couple hundred miles farther north and the upper level pattern isn't terribly similar. (Although if you shift Floyd's track W/SW, you'd probably see a similar curve with Irma) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Storm located south of all the 0z guidance very close to NHC track. got the tracks in google earth from http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.kml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: Storm located south of all the 0z guidance very close to NHC track. got the tracks in google earth from http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al112017.kml The eye track is going to wobble a bit. Longer term trends are more important, unless we start to see an unexpected, sharp deviation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Is it me or did 0z GFS op make second landfall further north in SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Biggest difference that I see biggest is the trough in the Northeast the GFS does not have it retreating as fast thus pulling Irma further North. Looks like that could be the key player in what ultimately happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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