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Invest 92L

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We now have a designated 92L, which has been given better odds of development than 91L and you can understand why when you compare the two IR loops. Their definitely appears to be a vigorous circulation already present with this system. 

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91L could serve to make the atmosphere more conducive (by helping to erode the Saharan air layer) for the development of 92L.  So let it be the "sacrificial lamb."

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

91L could serve to make the atmosphere more conducive (by helping to erode the Saharan air layer) for the development of 92L.  So let it be the "sacrificial lamb."

I hear that alot  yet  it  never happens. I saw  on TWC the same  ol nothing. It might be a 1 one day wonder then get zapped west  of  60. Total yawn

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From what  i can see the models have pretty much dropped  91 and  92 and  now somehow develop the wave behind them. I think it will have the same trouble they all have. 92 could  pull a don and croak over open tropical water a day or 2 after  it gets named but it is  no threat to anyone.

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Jeez.  I just looped the last vis. 92L sure looks darn good.  Really can see the rotation.   I am going to guess if things continue on this trend for the next 3 hours the NHC will bump up developing chances quite a bit.

92L looks promising for sure and the path is clear for additional development. The early season African Easterly Jet may have flipped us over a threshold, breaking the cap over the MDR unlike prior years. Unwilling to comment on the future track of this system. The models keep playing with a PV streamer near 60W. The Euro EPS is about equally divided between recurve and Hebert Box.

splitEW.jpg

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

91L could serve to make the atmosphere more conducive (by helping to erode the Saharan air layer) for the development of 92L.  So let it be the "sacrificial lamb."

I was under the impression that a prior storm moving along the same or similar path actually makes it less conducive for another to strengthen due to the upwelling of the ocean.

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2 minutes ago, larrye said:

I was under the impression that a prior storm moving along the same or similar path actually makes it less conducive for another to strengthen due to the upwelling of the ocean.

I seriously doubt any of these waves will be strong enough to cause any upwelling. As far as waves moistening  up the atmosphere  i think that is  just a  myth. Plenty  of SAL out there.

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

From what  i can see the models have pretty much dropped  91 and  92 and  now somehow develop the wave behind them. I think it will have the same trouble they all have. 92 could  pull a don and croak over open tropical water a day or 2 after  it gets named but it is  no threat to anyone.

What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was?  It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.)

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was?  It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.)

The well-defined low pressure and already-deep and concentrated convection, maybe?

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was?  It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.)

IMO, the environment for 92L is quite a bit different from the one 99L saw when it emerged from the African coast. First (and probably most important), the environment around it is a lot more moist.

splitE.jpg

When 99L came off the coast it was absolutely harassed by the SAL. Here, the orientation of the SAL has been a bit different (deepest plume further north), and I think 91L has done a good job of keeping the environment ahead moist. That's a contributor in allowing 92L to keep a nice area of convection. Second, the shear (for now at least) looks to be pretty favorable for development. As the NHC says, the upper level environment becomes a bit more hostile toward the weekend, but for now, the environment isn't bad, and much better than the stuff 99L ran into initially. I'd keep watching the SAL. Yesterday it wasn't as close to 91L and now I think we're seeing it get close. 

wg8shr.GIF 

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

The well-defined low pressure and already-deep and concentrated convection, maybe?

I don't think 92L has a well defined low quite yet, though it has been organizing today and has had impressive bursts of convection. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

IMO, the environment for 92L is quite a bit different from the one 99L saw when it emerged from the African coast. First (and probably most important), the environment around it is a lot more moist.

splitE.jpg

When 99L came off the coast it was absolutely harassed by the SAL. Here, the orientation of the SAL has been a bit different (deepest plume further north), and I think 91L has done a good job of keeping the environment ahead moist. That's a contributor in allowing 92L to keep a nice area of convection. Second, the shear (for now at least) looks to be pretty favorable for development. As the NHC says, the upper level environment becomes a bit more hostile toward the weekend, but for now, the environment isn't bad, and much better than the stuff 99L ran into initially. I'd keep watching the SAL. Yesterday it wasn't as close to 91L and now I think we're seeing it get close. 

wg8shr.GIF 

I don't think 92L has a well defined low quite yet, though it has been organizing today and has had impressive bursts of convection. 

Thanks, that illustrates it quite nicely!  What's going to make the atmosphere more hostile towards the weekend, increased shear?
 

About the SAL, it seems to be a persistent problem this season, what causes it to be more of a problem in some seasons vs others?

 

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4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, that illustrates it quite nicely!  What's going to make the atmosphere more hostile towards the weekend, increased shear?
 

About the SAL, it seems to be a persistent problem this season, what causes it to be more of a problem in some seasons vs others?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Paragon said:

What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was?  It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.)

I suppose it  could but NHC says  upper winds will be far  less conducive  by the weekend and  it will still be embedded  in dry air as well.

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The guys I worked with on the medium range desk at WPC did carry a wave off the se coast of Fla day 7---but it's just a carry over from Tuesday's 1pm call with HNC. But it makes sense since the ensemble guidance carries something our way. The day crew (at WPC) actually will be the ones who must coordinate synoptic features with the NHC specialist. You may already know this---maybe not. These calls are usually between the medium range desk, NHC and Navy Norfolk...every day during the summer (hurricane season). It was our ONLY chance to 'help' the NHC get the path going in the 'right' direction beyond their day 5 forecast window. Some of those conversations lend to some funny stories (a la "Sandy' and Gustav). For another time I guess---I'm new to this whole "everybody's got a weather forecast opinion" forum. 

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92L isn't looking half bad this morning. NHC has increased odds of development once again. The track should also be further to the Northeast of 91L and therefore has a greater chance of impacting the US.

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92L_tracks_latest.png

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Looking really good now, would expect the odds of development to be increased again tonight. My guess is they will probably investigate this tomorrow if things continue to look good, especially since this poses a real threat to the US mainland. The 18z guidance tracks this right through the Southern Bahamas.

rb-animated.gif

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Hopefully, this 92L continues to track at it's current pace and --- goes into the GoMex --- and moves just fast enough to keep the qpfs under 2-3 inches with maybe some brief tropical storm force gusts (convective downdrafts) at best. If it indeed moves thru the Florida Straits. Nothing more. :)  At the house, have had 17.16" in June, 8.40" in July and 8.70" so far in August. Another 1-3" --- we could handle...much more than that in a 24-36 hr period, would make for a sloppy mess here in Ave Maria. :( 

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Up to 70/70 odds now. Still has a long road ahead, but if there is a period where 92L can capitalize on a favorable environment, this is it. 

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands have
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
However, only a slight increase in the organization of the shower
activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
favorable for development early next week.  The low is expected
to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few
days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Deep convection is now maintaining itself over the center and rotation is very evident on IR. It's probably already a TD if not a minimal TS.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Deep convection is now maintaining itself over the center and rotation is very evident on IR. It's probably already a TD if not a minimal TS.

yeah it looks pretty darn good right now.

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

yeah it looks pretty darn good right now.

They probably won't upgrade it until tomorrow, but right now it looks better than some of our recent hurricanes.

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92L has my attention not necessarily for short term developement, but where it will be in four days. Yes, this may well reach TS status over night or in the very near short term, but it will also encounter a developing unfavorable mid-to-upper level environment as is progresses W-WNW over the next 72 hours. However, what has me concerned about a potential Irma is the position of its surface low in 96 hrs, whether it is still a tropical storm or even a weak circulation. If Irma survives the trek north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it may end up positioned in the central Bahamas with a strengthening ridge directly north and a corridor of favorable atmospheric conditions for significant intensification. This could be a real threat to Florida or eventually the GOM down the road.




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You can see how the Northerly shear is affecting and hindering the convection to the North of the circulation this morning. Harvey is also experiencing some Northerly shear thanks to the same ULL, however the impact on Harvey should be minimal.

wv-animated.gif

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

You can see how the Northerly shear is affecting and hindering the convection to the North of the circulation this morning. Harvey is also experiencing some Northerly shear thanks to the same ULL, however the impact on Harvey should be minimal.

wv-animated.gif

There's a north/south oriented ridge squeezed between the strong ULL near the FL Keys and the trough you mention in the Central Atlantic. Harvey is positioned in the SE side of that ridge, so that's the reason we see NE to E shear affecting it. As Harvey progresses westward, a trough will swing across the CONUS and weaken the SE ridge, allowing the cyclone to put the brakes on and gain latitude. Depending on how much the ridge weakens, it's the latitude gain. Guidance is relatively tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Then there's guidance scattering afterwards, with some models slamming Harvey into Central America and never seeing the light in the BoC, and the Euro as far North as the NW GoM, near the TX upper coast. BTW, after slamming the brakes, the atmosphere gets very conducive for development, but there will be land interaction by that time.

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