BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Congrats us. better now than next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, eurojosh said: CMC is a NC landfall, straight up the Chesapeake, left at the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I don't think a cat 4 is congrats coming up the bay. A lot of homes would be destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Bob gets his eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That's quite a tuck into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Model fantasy still but WOW! Just to see it modeled gets the heart rate up. Simultaneous obs within the sub-forum from all quads of the core! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 With all due respect to the EPS, the op GFS has now shown east coast landfall for five runs in a row, and the op Euro showed east coast landfall in its latest run (and arguably the one before that). The ensemble of ops might be telling us something. Of course the 12z Euro will probably muddy the waters by showing OTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Model fantasy still but WOW! Just to see it modeled gets the heart rate up. Simultaneous obs within the sub-forum from all quads of the core! lol There's a less than 1% chance that happens the way the 12Z gfs depicts. Day 8 chaos is true CHAOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Well, there really isn't anything that I own that can't be replaced or rebuilt, so if I can chase the eye, I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Bob gets his eye. Storm is transitioning so the eye won't be calm. No dog walk on this run. If nothing else, the gfs/gefs is filling up thr nsfw folder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 You know it's something special when everyday there is a new run we say, "Save this one it doesn't get worse" and then we get nuked worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If you compare recent runs, one could extrapolate trends in landfalls. I said I thought it would ride up the Chesapeake in the banter thread because the center was just to the south of the 0Z run after passing the Leewards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 DC crush job for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Well, there really isn't anything that I own that can't be replaced or rebuilt, so if I can chase the eye, I'd take it. I'm divided. On the one hand, totally! On the other, every time there's a thunderstorm I have to go around the yard picking up fallen branches from the dozen 60ft+trees that make a circle around my house. I might send my wife and daughter to a DC hotel for this if we're 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 This run was more of a factor with the stout flat ridge over the top and not a phase/capture. It looks like a phase but the flat ridge is what halted and allowed Irma to turn. If the gfs is wrong about the ridge then this was an easy scrape and recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I don't think a cat 4 is congrats coming up the bay. A lot of homes would be destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Look at this wind field!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I don't think a cat 4 is congrats coming up the bay. A lot of homes would be destroyed. Not a fan of moral police posts. If we had the power to alter weather then yes, it's terrible. But we can't so we're totally allowed to be enthusiasts and imagine the unimaginable and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's getting there! blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/cc5fe88e-dcb5-481d-b1ba-6ed6c2450bd4 please work... https://postimg.org/image/ncq87i1th/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 @WxWatcher007 I do think this storm is a threat to the east. Even with no landfall. Peacefully out to sea is becoming less likely. Where it gets really muddy is how it may or may not effect our yards. If the gefs holds (my guess is it does) and the eps shifts that way then confidence in some sort of ec impact is starting to get real. Still at 70% odds of ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not a fan of moral police posts. If we had the power to alter weather then yes, it's terrible. But we can't so we're totally allowed to be enthusiasts and imagine the unimaginable and enjoy it. and others are totally allowed to be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: and others are totally allowed to be concerned Of course. But the comment i quoted was a backhand from an out of area poster questioning our enthusiasm. Those will always be nails on a chalkboard to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: lol.... Congrats Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Model fantasy still but WOW! Just to see it modeled gets the heart rate up. Simultaneous obs within the sub-forum from all quads of the core! lol You're assuming we have cell service. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're assuming we have cell service. Lol It's possible Jeff had cell service and he was going through the eye of cat 4 Harvey but yeah chances are we wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Ensemble should be in within about 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 DT on Twitter hugging the EPS. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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