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April 2017 Obs/Discussion.

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Down to 25 earlier this morning before clouds started to move in.  Still should be a nice day in the low-40's.  March def went out like a lamb in these parts yesterday with sun, a high of 43, and a cool sat pic showing the remaining snow in the Higher terrain areas.

image-download.thumb.jpg.efdfe52065795546cb1ff73c721dda3a.jpg

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12z GFS would be a snowstorm for the ages for northern Iowa next Wed/Thu if temp profiles were a bit colder.  Deposits over 5" of precip over a good chunk of that area.  Euro is much more conservative (realistic) and showing more like a 1-2" rain event.  

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34 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

12z GFS would be a snowstorm for the ages for northern Iowa next Wed/Thu if temp profiles were a bit colder.  Deposits over 5" of precip over a good chunk of that area.  Euro is much more conservative (realistic) and showing more like a 1-2" rain event.  

And then a week later (day 12) does show a snowstorm for the northern half of IL.

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23 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

12z GFS would be a snowstorm for the ages for northern Iowa next Wed/Thu if temp profiles were a bit colder.  Deposits over 5" of precip over a good chunk of that area.  Euro is much more conservative (realistic) and showing more like a 1-2" rain event.  

Today's 12z GFS has some decent snow in parts of IL/WI/MI on Wed/Thu, especially for April standards.  This is only 3-4 days out so probably time to start taking it seriously.

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Ugh/yikes/oh no

Windy storm too, with 925 mb winds over 50 kts for a while, especially near the lake.

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.dc04b22cd6662032822d918f25edf965.png

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.7dfeb7281eae9819a89df402ae8b5da3.png

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ugh/yikes/oh no

Windy storm too, with 925 mb winds over 50 kts for a while, especially near the lake.

snku_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.dc04b22cd6662032822d918f25edf965.png

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.7dfeb7281eae9819a89df402ae8b5da3.png

 

 

Yep.  12z GFS delays the strengthening a little bit compared to previous runs, and hence has placed the snow potential further east.  06z GFS had 10" near QC.  This could be one of the rare types of scenarios where moderate to heavy rain switches over to very heavy wet snow for the "lucky" areas.  You can see the dynamic cooling process taking place on the forecast soundings in those areas.  Could be interesting if we can keep the strength of the storm system in tact as we get closer.

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Taking a quick look at thermal profiles on the GFS and it's really marginal, with 925 mb temps only -1C to -2C for the most part in the progged snow area through 96 hours (gets a bit colder after that).  With it being early April, I'd be concerned with how well 2m temps would respond with such marginal temps at 925 mb...could struggle a bit.  More time to dig into details like that if the models continue to suggest this type of solution.

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18z GFS has continued the trend with delayed strengthening of the surface low.  Probably a sign that the storm will be weaker overall, and never attain the strength it was showing previously.  Euro is about 4-5mb weaker than the GFS as well.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

18z GFS has continued the trend with delayed strengthening of the surface low.  Probably a sign that the storm will be weaker overall, and never attain the strength it was showing previously.  Euro is about 4-5mb weaker than the GFS as well.

Still showing an area of decent snow.

This is gonna be tricky and I'm sure the offices are going to be playing conservatively.  

 

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Still showing an area of decent snow.

This is gonna be tricky and I'm sure the offices are going to be playing conservatively.  

 



Reminds me a lot of the masters weekend storm last year here in NW Ohio. Very thin band of intense snow but a 30 mile swath received 6-11" while hardly anything fell outside of that

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Damp and dreary week on tap.  At least the weekend looks better with sunny skies and temps rising into the 60s by Saturday

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Post vacation laziness is finally fading.

Was in FL and the Bahamas 3/26-4/3.

Perfect weather just about the whole time down there.

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Trees and grass should take off this weekend with warmth and plenty of wet soil. 

Grass has already taken off around here lol

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This is going to be the warmest weekend since October.  The only problem is this is also The Masters weekend.  I can't be outside and watch golf at the same time.

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I will say, it's about time we got a decent April for once (looking at the long range).

 

The last several Aprils have been pure **** (including 2012).

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Wow, HUGE over-performer today.  MLI made 77.  Hit 74 here.  Just about everyone who isn't working or sick is outside.  The smell of freshly cut grass, and smoke from the grills are filling the air this evening.  One of the best times of the year to be sure.

Should make 80 tomorrow.

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Hit 66 today under full sun (way above normal but whatever). I bounced from project to project just basking in the warmth of early April sunshine, not getting a ton of stuff done, just assessing the damage of winter's 5 month assault. The several day ice event a couple weeks ago really wreaked havoc on the trees. Snow is pretty much gone, but there are areas still...should be completely eradicated in a few days... several weeks early this year! Time to cut firewood, ride my quad, fish, hike and enjoy nature.   They'll still be some cold days and snow I'm sure, but the warm season is almost here! A few days ago on the soft snow, I saw bobcat tracks, and what certainly had to be wolf or a damn big coyot. Wildlife is waking up and on the move... should see a robin any day.

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We hit 76 this afternoon, equaling our February high temp.  I got some yard work done and potted up my geraniums.  Tomorrow, I have to mow for the first time.

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We came up just short of 80 (78), but it was in the 70s for much of the day.  This evening, the dewpoint has crept into the low 60s for the first time this season.  It's a bit warm and sticky in the house.

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DTW overachieved big time today, with a high of 77*F (1 degree shy of the record high for the day).

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7 hours ago, Powerball said:

DTW overachieved big time today, with a high of 77*F (1 degree shy of the record high for the day).


Still 67°F at DET which is really impressive.

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