2017 General Tropical Discussion

[frazdaddy]

7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Check out the Euro 12z. Whew double landfalls as a major Hurricane. Texas, then 4 days latter Louisiana. 

Looks to be stronger at second landfall,wow

[Lookout]

2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

Scary how rapid Harvey is now forecasted to strengthen. It could be a cat 3 when it hits, and they only have two days to prepare for it. 

That's what I've been thinking about. Normally you have a lot of time to get the message out but this thing went from a curiosity for many to a legit potentially catastrophic storm with very little time to prepare or get  out of the way for. Based on the rapid intensification today, it's hard to see this not being a cat 4 at least by landfall. And the rain and inland flooding threat is mind boggling. Really scared for all in the path of this due to the lack of time to prepare and the gridlock that will be happening making it that much harder. 

This is the most concern  ive had for those in the path of  a storm In a long time  and it's crazy to think how fast it has all happened.  

[downeastnc]

16 minutes ago, Lookout said:

That's what I've been thinking about. Normally you have a lot of time to get the message out but this thing went from a curiosity for many to a legit potentially catastrophic storm with very little time to prepare or get  out of the way for. Based on the rapid intensification today, it's hard to see this not being a cat 4 at least by landfall. And the rain and inland flooding threat is mind boggling. Really scared for all in the path of this due to the lack of time to prepare and the gridlock that will be happening making it that much harder. 

This is the most concern  ive had for those in the path of  a storm In a long time  and it's crazy to think how fast it has all happened.  

The upside is this is a very unpopulated area all things considered, and the coastal communities that are there are very hurricane savvy....Corpus Christi is the largest city ( 400k ) that seems most likely to be on the north side of the center/ or eyewall assuming the models are right....they really need this thing to come in at Padre Island and Baffin Bay there is nothing there, if you had to pick a spot in the USA to take a major hit this is it. The downside is if it comes in right on top of Corpus Christi as a major its gonna be rough, so hopefully it comes in 75-100 miles south of there where there is no people. One thing to remember as well is storms that RI like Harvey tend to have a adjustment period once they reach a certain point, so expect several EWRC sometime in the next 36 hrs, so the timing of these will probably be the difference between a 100-120 mph landfall and something worse...the most pressing issue may actually be away from the center further up the coast around Houston over to LA where there are a lot more people and models call for widespread 15-20" type totals. 

[mackerel_sky]

Shouldn't Harvey get its own thread?

[mackerel_sky]

51 minutes ago, Lookout said:

That's what I've been thinking about. Normally you have a lot of time to get the message out but this thing went from a curiosity for many to a legit potentially catastrophic storm with very little time to prepare or get  out of the way for. Based on the rapid intensification today, it's hard to see this not being a cat 4 at least by landfall. And the rain and inland flooding threat is mind boggling. Really scared for all in the path of this due to the lack of time to prepare and the gridlock that will be happening making it that much harder. 

This is the most concern  ive had for those in the path of  a storm In a long time  and it's crazy to think how fast it has all happened.  

Yep , this morning , all outlets I saw said landfall would most likely be a tropical storm, and maybe just making it to 75 mph at landfall, weak hurricane! CNN, TWC, local channels here, etc. ! There are going to be a lot of people, especially in TX, that have that WTF moment when they get home, and as stated, less than 24 hours to react ! Very scary!

[jburns]

3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yep , this morning , all outlets I saw said landfall would most likely be a tropical storm, and maybe just making it to 75 mph at landfall, weak hurricane! CNN, TWC, local channels here, etc. ! There are going to be a lot of people, especially in TX, that have that WTF moment when they get home, and as stated, less than 24 hours to react ! Very scary!

And then there is this.

1. Corpus Christi. Oil tanks sit on the coast in the country’s fourth-largest port, in the path of potential storm surges. The town issued a voluntary evacuation but had not yet set up temporary shelters as of late Thursday. Mayor Joe McComb didn’t seem too bothered. “I think people are smart enough to make their evacuation decisions,” he said at a press conference, “and they don’t need the government telling them what to do.”

[mackerel_sky]

7 minutes ago, jburns said:

And then there is this.

1. Corpus Christi. Oil tanks sit on the coast in the country’s fourth-largest port, in the path of potential storm surges. The town issued a voluntary evacuation but had not yet set up temporary shelters as of late Thursday. Mayor Joe McComb didn’t seem too bothered. “I think people are smart enough to make their evacuation decisions,” he said at a press conference, “and they don’t need the government telling them what to do.”

Wow!

[winterymix]

Some locations are due for 25 to 35 inches of rain over three days. 

The only good thing to come out of all that is that those locales will not

be on the drought maps anytime soon.

[downeastnc]

Starting to look like the OBX could get a close call early next week all the models have a tropical low skirting along pretty close to the OBX....any shift west would bring the system in over the coast of NC. Timing appears key if its any slower the high to the north would block it more causing that west shift, intensity looks like a TS/weak cane at best....except of course the CMC which has it as a well organized cane just west of OBX with hurricane conditions onshore at Hatteras.

[downeastnc]

CMC very aggressive with "Irma", all the models develop the storm now and scoot it east just offshore the OBX, not much wiggle room on the west side track wise, and depending on model it is kinda short fuse only 3-4 days out assuming there would be any kind of impact onshore other than waves ....basically any kind of trend west would put coastal NC/SC in play for a brushing or even direct hit. The Euro/GFS are weak with the system the NAM 3K and CMC are predictably more powerful with the low. Hard to see this being to much given the shear forecast though....

Gotta love the CMC though loves to blow up them TC's

[ldub23]

Nam seems a day too fast to me.

[MJO812]

10 hours ago, downeastnc said:

CMC very aggressive with "Irma", all the models develop the storm now and scoot it east just offshore the OBX, not much wiggle room on the west side track wise, and depending on model it is kinda short fuse only 3-4 days out assuming there would be any kind of impact onshore other than waves ....basically any kind of trend west would put coastal NC/SC in play for a brushing or even direct hit. The Euro/GFS are weak with the system the NAM 3K and CMC are predictably more powerful with the low. Hard to see this being to much given the shear forecast though....

Gotta love the CMC though loves to blow up them TC's

Cmc has been showing a big storm for 3 days now. Maybe it's on to something.

[downeastnc]

NAM now showing a landfalling system over eastern NC....the globals all trended a little west today in earlier runs will be interesting to see what the 00Z bring tonight. Timing would be late Mon into Tues which is only 72-80 hrs out from now. Luckily anything that does form should be on the weaker sheared mess side....could bring a lot of rain though to central and eastern NC.

[AJF0602]

Interested to see how this plays out, a lot of the models now keep this very close to the coast.

[downeastnc]

3 hours ago, AJF0602 said:

Interested to see how this plays out, a lot of the models now keep this very close to the coast.

you can see the large area of low pressure rotating near the surface, this thing isnt gonna do anything quickly....that said the longer it takes to get going and the further south it stays now could mean the high has time to get out east enough to keep this thing over or right on the coast which is what most models now have.....then there is the question of is it going to be fully tropical etc....still gonna be rough along the SE beaches and maybe even strong TS type conditions along the SC/NC coast. 

 

Vis loop of 92L its a really large area of low pressure...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-vis-long.html

[AJF0602]

Yeah can definitely see the circulation on the visible, large amount of storms popping up today, would be nice to see it get going tonight but I saw a earlier shear map that doesn't look too good.

[Solak]

06z NAM shows 6.03" for RDU on Tues. 06z GFS says .09" for same timeframe

AFD says

The sfc low off the GA/SC coast will drift slowly newd Monday and 
Monday night. The ECMWF and GFS are preferred at this time with the 
low placement/movement due to their consistency as the latest NAM is 
notably farther west/inland. If the NAm scenario was realized, 
potentially heavy rain would plague areas of NC along and east of 
highway 1.  The persistent east-new flow into central NC along with 
increasing lift through the column will lead to increasing rain 
chances east-to-west, especially late Monday into Monday night.The 
generally overcast skies, a cool nely flow and increasing coverage 
of showers will yield high temperatures Monday well below normal, 
ranging between 75-80 degrees. 

Monday night, due to the expected movement of the sfc low and the 
potential for a mid level deformation band to set up after 06Z 
Tuesday on the nw side of the mid level low, expect the most 
persistent showers to occur over the northern coastal plain into the 
northeast Piedmont, and less so over the southern Piedmont. If this 
scenario appears likely, would have to increase PoPs to categorical 
for areas east-north of Raleigh. For now, will lean to precip 
amounts late Monday into Monday night to average around a half inch 
across the coastal plain to less than a quarter of an inch over the 
western and southern Piedmont.

[WidreMann]

12z GFS just had a big shift west, putting down 1-2" over central NC. But the 12z NAM shifted east, probably because of the 06z GFS. Tonight's 00z runs will be interesting.

[downeastnc]

9 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

12z GFS just had a big shift west, putting down 1-2" over central NC. But the 12z NAM shifted east, probably because of the 06z GFS. Tonight's 00z runs will be interesting.

Starting to maybe see something try to get organized around 80W 31N on the vis loop, shear has backed off considerably as the storms firing around that circulation are not getting sheared off to bad. The water there is also deep and warm so who knows maybe this will become a bit more than what the models have. So many things will factor in this, timing and that high location off NE the most, but also if the storm is stronger and deeper then that too might determine more where it goes....not a lot of time either this thing will be here in 48 hrs or so....would be rough it if did manage to get fully tropical and up to say a 60-80 mph system and hit as most people have no idea its even there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-vis-long.html

[Solak]

WRAL TV

17 mins ·

WHAT'S NEXT FOR HARVEY? WRAL Mike Moss tracks its path.

Mike Moss tracks Harvey's path

wral.com

 

[downeastnc]

5 minutes ago, Solak said:

WRAL TV

17 mins ·

WHAT'S NEXT FOR HARVEY? WRAL Mike Moss tracks its path.

Mike Moss tracks Harvey's path

wral.com

 

the good news is realistically there is little chance this thing has the room or time to become much more than a TS and probably a weak one at that....it could however bring some decent surge on that path up the sounds even 40 mph winds for 12hrs will shove 4-5 ft of water up there....and we could easily see 3-5" of rain especially east of I95 and I just had 4" last week and the ditches are just now empty. 

[Solak]

I'll be curious the impact this will have on the OBX beaches. They were all renourished this Spring and Summer- from Southern Shores to Nags Head, and around Buxton.

 

[Solak]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago

 

 

Rapid feedback development event looks underway at ne edge of 92L cyclone could form quickly, up to NHC to name

[AJF0602]

Yeah you can see on the visible loop it is developing rapidly.wonder if this thing has any surprises up its sleeve. Dmax tonight should be fun.

[yotaman]

Looks pretty good on radar. Definitely looks like it wants to wrap around and develop.

[WidreMann]

Still a lot of outflow boundaries and the center is well west of the dense clouds.

[downeastnc]

If they do issue a TS watch for the SC/NC coast there will be a lot of surprised people....center needs to get in under those thunderstorms for this to really take off.....the overall circulation is also pretty darn big on the vis loop so that will be tough to consolidate as well. 

 

We could see the LLC headed west fade and die and a newer one form under that stronger area of storms 

[Solak]

[Solak]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South
Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary.
A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by
a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South
Carolina coast tonight and Monday.  The system is forecast to
move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the
North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.
The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become
a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night through Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

[Disc]

I'm under a TS Watch here in N. Myrtle Beach. Could have some strong gusts here starting tomorrow as those outer bands move onshore by 6-8am Monday morning. Should be an interesting event to watch unfold.