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Bob Chill

Winter 2017-18 Disco

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

But I gave a link. :P

I saw JB in WxUSAF's post and automatically assumed he was talking the infamous JB of Vodka Cold. My bad.

I certainly wasn't judging. Just letting others know who JB2 is around these parts. :)

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I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months.

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36 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months.

Ugh?

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months.

 

12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

This was an easy one... La Nina surrounded by warm SSTs so close, and not connected to subsurface. Always look for this to produce cold Winter.

12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

It's technically Fall.

The pattern is just awesome because of its sustainability index

 

At this point I'm sure StormchaserChuck is just trolling us...or just hugging current model runs really hard. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months.

It's not funny anymore. Whatever point you think your making is lost. Those of us that see what your doing are just disregarding all your posts and worse anyone that simply wanders into the thread might fall victim to your barrage of bs.   I am pretty liberal with forum decorum and almost always take the side of "let em talk about whatever" but you should stop. There is no value to what your doing and worse it might throw some of the weenies and anyone new to this thread off on a tangent. 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Based off the hype in the long range thread, someone is going to have to issue a Weenie Suicide Watch if/when the pattern in December fails.

The weak will perish and the strong will survive. As it should be. :)

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2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Dec 5-10 for whatever reason always has a tendency to have big -EPO in the last 20 years, especially on models medium-long term. This always flips to massive +EPO by early January in the last 10 years.   

- l - with winter Solstice maybe

Always flips on January in the last 10 years?  Including 1/10 & 1/14?

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Something I've been thinking wrt timing for the winter. we have seen extreme tanking of the epo/AO or both in December before several times. Just some off the top of my head observations. Often this is a sign of a long term pattern setting in. 1995/6, 2000/01, 2002/03, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2013/14 all lead to prolonged periods of high latitude higher heights in the AO or epo domain and at least a decent pattern for much of the winter. Some of those didn't work out as great for our back yard as others, namely 2001 and 2011 but that was more bad luck then anything else.  

2005/6 flipped but the flip happened pretty fast so if the long range continues to hint at this general look persisting and reloading then we might be looking at the long term dominant pattern setting in. 

In the last 25 years most of the time that we have seen this drastic of a high latitude blocking pattern set in this time of year we have seen that pattern dominate and reload through the majority of the winter. 

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24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

BobC has been beating that drum for awhile, PSU. You all are on the same page with that thought.

Dec can be a huge clue for blocking in general...for better or worse. Recency bias is finally starting to go away and folks are accepting the fact that this year has a really good chance at breaking the nasty trend of raging +AO winters. Everything is breaking right and it's not unreasonable to up the optimism level at this point. There's a lot of data to back up the thoughts of -AO coming strong and hanging around. 

I don't really care about the NAO honestly. Give me a -AO on the means for DJF and avoid a nasty AK vortex and the odds favor AN snow. Uncomplicated. 

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So the NAO is negative!

This is pretty big because cyclical indicators favor a smoothing N Hemisphere pattern --- but the NAO is quite negative, bucking the trend. 

I haven't seen much of this difference in the last 10 years. 1995 comes to mind. 

Much different Winter thoughts. 

-- I was thinking it was evolving like 2005, 2006, 2007 etc... but the NAO being negative now and week ago say this is more like the 80s and early 90s. 

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