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Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The Cape has the same behavior. August has lots of Kevin approved 84/74 days there with the wind off the warmer water. I worked on the Cape back in 2005...and it was one of the most oppressive stretches of high dews I've ever experienced. Basically the final nail in the coffin for me not being a fan of HHH.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay ... I'm still not sure I understand where the bold is coming from.  The units on heights and thicknesses are the same, meters ...usually reported in 10-meter intervals (deca).  540 decameters is thus 5,400 meters of altitude.

The reason heights are typically higher than thickness is a mathematical one.  Height is the geometric altitude at a given level of theta.   Thickness is the difference in two theta levels.  Therefore, that differential does not allow the thickness to ever equal the geometrical height (which you should think about as potential energy ... you're integrating 1/gravity, between 0 and altitude)  

 

This actually answers my question!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Two things regarding the new heat advisory:

The drop to 95+ was shown to only add something like 5-10 more days per year on average (you know the usual culprits ASH, FIT, etc).

And the key is two consecutive days of 95+. Meaning if today is 95 HI, and tomorrow is forecast to hit 95 HI again, we only issue for tomorrow. So that should cut down on the total number of headline events too.

Wouldn't that be more confusing to the public?  Today's HI is 98F but no Heat Advisory, but the second day has HI of 95F and gets the Advisory?  

Just seems odd.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Wouldn't that be more confusing to the public?  Today's HI is 98F but no Heat Advisory, but the second day has HI of 95F and gets the Advisory?  

Just seems odd.

I thought they always did if any day reached those thresholds? I was confused too. If it's hot for outdoor activities you probably want to warn the public regardless of longevity?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought they always did if any day reached those thresholds? I was confused too. If it's hot for outdoor activities you probably want to warn the public regardless of longevity?

Yeah because its obviously going to at least (hopefully) cool below those values at night, so I don't understand the two day thing.  I thought you issue for each day that goes over the given threshold... if you want to add longevity to it, maybe make it some number of hours above that threshold?

This does seem like one of the more confusing NWS headlines now:

Quote

 

Thus, the old threshold of 100-104 degrees Fahrenheit for two or

more consecutive hours has been lowered to 95-99 degrees

Fahrenheit occurring for two or more consecutive days, or any

duration of heat index 100-104 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

64/55 at 9:30pm...pretty much a summer climo evening up here.  South wind hasn't allowed for any decoupling yet.

My wife noticed it too...we forgot the screen doors were still open and usually by this time of evening the heat would be kicking on if we did that on a normal evening for this time of year.  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wouldn't that be more confusing to the public?  Today's HI is 98F but no Heat Advisory, but the second day has HI of 95F and gets the Advisory?  

Just seems odd.

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought they always did if any day reached those thresholds? I was confused too. If it's hot for outdoor activities you probably want to warn the public regardless of longevity?

Well hopefully we'll get the actual guidance soon. I'm in favor of just wholesale lowering it to 95 for the two hour (just like it was for 100). If we get impacts at 95, let's make it 95. But I know some offices will say, "we're forecasting 95 HI today and tomorrow, so I'm issuing one for today and one for tomorrow" even though that wasn't the intent as I was told. 

The two day thing was put in place because the lower criteria accumulated over two days could yield impacts like the old 100 criteria. Or so the higher pay grades said. I find it funny when management decides what is and isn't too much work for operations without actually asking our input. I'm pretty sure the numbers we were presented were like 3 advisories a year at ASH with 100, and that goes to like 10 on average with 95. That's not really a huge increase in workload. In my opinion anyway.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Because -40F and calm is fake cold...

<duck and run>

All about impacts I guess. Wind chill advisories allow someone to prepare for apparent temps that they may not have expected or prepared for. The wind cuts through you and can really get into places you don't want. Think about the intangibles with the wind. Dead calm at least does not penetrate clothes etc like windy conditions would. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All about impacts I guess. Wind chill advisories allow someone to prepare for apparent temps that they may not have expected or prepared for. The wind cuts through you and can really get into places you don't want. Think about the intangibles with the wind. Dead calm at least does not penetrate clothes etc like windy conditions would. 

Oh I know, just stirring the pot.

But if you are looking at it from a pure frostbite standpoint (which seems to be the point of those because that's what the statement references), -40F and calm will cause frostbite quicker than say a breezy -10F.

The one thing is often calm cold is highly variable from location to location but windy cold seems to be more widespread associated with CAA. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Heavy morning miserymist.

My spring-indicator poplar tree has quarter sized leaves.

Saucer magnolia buds are loose and will open whenever the sun gets on them.

Next 48 hours will be huge green up for Central NH.  Once those Norway Maples open everything follows immediately except the oaks.  70-80F should finally do it.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty solid 6 days out. 

you got work to do 

REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT FRI APR 28 2017

NOTE:  "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

MAZALL-281500-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BOSTON         CLOUDY    61  59  93 SW8       29.94F
BEVERLY        CLOUDY    60  59  96 CALM      29.93F FOG
LAWRENCE       CLOUDY    64  60  87 W6        29.96S
BEDFORD        CLOUDY    61  57  87 SW7       29.94S FOG
BLUE HILL        N/A     61  58  90 SW8       29.93F
NORWOOD        CLOUDY    64  60  87 SW8       29.94F
MARSHFIELD     CLOUDY    61  61 100 VRB5      29.95F
PLYMOUTH       LGT RAIN  58  56  93 MISG      29.97S FOG
TAUNTON        CLOUDY    60  57  89 S6        29.96F
NEW BEDFORD    CLOUDY    57  56  96 S6        29.96F
$$

MAZALL-281500-
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FALMOUTH       CLOUDY    57  57 100 MISG      29.99S FOG
HYANNIS        LGT RAIN  55  55 100 S7        29.95F VSB 1
CHATHAM        LGT RAIN  54  54 100 S9G17     30.00S VSB 1/4
PROVINCETOWN   LGT RAIN  58  57  97 S12       29.96F
NANTUCKET      TSTM      54  52  93 SW10      30.02R FOG
MARTHAS VNYRD  LGT RAIN  55  54  96 VRB7      29.99S FOG
$$

MAZALL-281500-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WORCESTER      CLOUDY    59  57  93 W8        29.97R
FITCHBURG      CLOUDY    64  60  87 CALM      29.95F
ORANGE         CLOUDY    63  61  93 CALM      29.96S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    62  61  97 S6        29.96R FOG
WESTFIELD      CLOUDY    62  60  93 S5        29.97R
NORTH ADAMS    CLOUDY    62  57  83 W7        29.98R
PITTSFIELD     CLOUDY    60  56  86 W9        29.98R
$$

RIZALL-281500-
RHODE ISLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PROVIDENCE     FOG       56  56 100 S6        29.97R VSB 1/2
NEWPORT        CLOUDY    57  57 100 S9        29.97R FOG
BLOCK ISLAND   CLOUDY    56  55  97 MISG        N/A  FOG
SMITHFIELD     CLOUDY    58  58 100 VRB5      29.97R FOG
WESTERLY       CLOUDY    59  57  93 VRB3      29.98S FOG
$$

CTZALL-281500-
CONNECTICUT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADLEY INTL   CLOUDY    60  60 100 S6        29.98R FOG
HARTFORD       CLOUDY    61  59  93 S6        29.97R
BRIDGEPORT     CLOUDY    60  58  92 SW3       29.98S
DANBURY        CLOUDY    63  61  93 W5        29.99R
GROTON         FOG       55  55 100 CALM      29.97R VSB 1/4
NEW HAVEN      CLOUDY    56  56 100 SW3       29.98R FOG
CHESTER        CLOUDY    61  61 100 CALM      29.98R
MERIDEN        CLOUDY    60  58  92 S5        29.98R FOG
WILLIMANTIC    CLOUDY    61  60  97 SW3       29.98R FOG
OXFORD         CLOUDY    59  55  88 CALM      29.99R FOG
$$

MEZ002-015-021-024-NHZ003-005-008-011-012-014-VTZ005-008-281500-
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND ME    CLOUDY    53  52  96 S7        29.96S FOG
BANGOR ME      CLOUDY    52  51  97 S9        29.97F FOG
CONCORD NH     CLOUDY    60  57  89 CALM      29.95F
MANCHESTER NH  CLOUDY    62  56  80 W3        29.94R
NASHUA NH      CLOUDY    61  59  93 CALM      29.95F
PORTSMOUTH NH  CLOUDY    55  54  97 CALM      29.94F FOG
JAFFREY NH     CLOUDY    61  60  97 W6        29.96F
KEENE NH       CLOUDY    62  59  90 W3        29.96S
BURLINGTON VT  PTSUNNY   69  59  70 S9        29.92R
MT. WASHINGTON FOG       48  48 100 W20         N/A  VSB 1/4
$$
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

i don't know ... 40's DPs in NYS is not SNE tho -

It's 74/60 here .. the temp part being up 14 in just two hours since the misty dawn.  NAM and GFS machine guidance stay the 55-60 DPs through main heating hours, so if the NAM's 80 to 85 works out, it may be qualify as at least low grade 'install-able' conditions for some.  

On another note, I don't think the models did too well with the overnight vestigial convection and the dawn debris skies.. We were drizzly and danked in at 7:45 this AM and I looked at the numbers yesterday and thought it more of a breakup with sun beam dawn. In any case ... as soon as the mid and high levels peeled off shore the llvs incinerated to open sky and the temp has shot up some seriously explosive rise.  

The llv offsetting cold for Sunday is impressive...some 30 F differential from Saturday max heating for some, and all the while the 800 mb level temperatures soaring to 12 C is pretty impressive inversion.   

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't know ... 40's DPs in NYS is not SNE tho -

It's 74/60 here .. the temp part being up 14 in just two hours since the misty dawn.  NAM and GFS machine guidance stay the 55-60 DPs through main heating hours, so if the NAM's 80 to 85 works out, it may be qualify as at least low grade 'install-able' conditions for some.  

On another note, I don't think the models did too well with the overnight vestigial convection and the dawn debris skies.. We were drizzly and danked in at 7:45 this AM and I looked at the numbers yesterday and thought it more of a breakup with sun beam dawn. In any case ... as soon as the mid and high levels peeled off shore the llvs incinerated to open sky and the temp has shot up some seriously explosive rise.  

The llv offsetting cold for Sunday is impressive...some 30 F differential from Saturday max heating for some, and all the while the 800 mb level temperatures soaring to 12 C is pretty impressive inversion.   

 

Its drying out quickly as the sun comes out but lol at 85/55 being oppressive needing AC, COC a doodle dew

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its drying out quickly as the sun comes out but lol at 85/55 being oppressive needing AC, COC a doodle dew

That's your point of view...  

To others, that may be enough to want a.c. for a couple of hours.   You're the one that's always heavy handedly stomping around posting about chamber of commerce conditions  - well...duh.  84/55-60 is goodly margin above your own description.  

can't have it both ways -

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its drying out quickly as the sun comes out but lol at 85/55 being oppressive needing AC, COC a doodle dew

Yea subjectivity is best to avoid in this space--that's why I stick to numbers. You can feel however you want.

Heat index of 85+ generally passes for hot; 90+ oppressive, but of course on an individual basis there are exceptions. Genetics are a factor as well of course...

My widespread 80+ call looks good right now. Catching up hasn't beeen an issue so far...

Nashua will probably be in the upper 70's before 1 pm.

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