40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Guidance can be wrong by 50+ miles into go time--even the euro--particularly with these really dynamic systems. True....though less feasible when late trends are in opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Guidance can be wrong by 50+ miles into go time--even the euro--particularly with these really dynamic systems. i see a lot better shot of this going south with weaker slower development than south and then rapid deepening and a thunderous CCB enveloping PVD-PSM but we will know in a moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I tend to agree with you. I think he'll be closer to 16" than 10" in that range I mentioned. You know how his mind works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You know how his mind works. what are your thoughts on NE mass, you have been quiet about that area. WE want your imput Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: what are your thoughts on NE mass, you have been quiet about that area. WE want your imput Just told you. 14-18" is easy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Euro ticking E with CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know how his mind works. More often than not, it works to find the correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: More often than not, it works to find the correct solution. hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro ticking E with CCB. Yea, but you know how its mind works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 What is the reasoning behind BOX having me at 4-8" today 4-8" this evening? The back edge is already through Binghamton. Should I expect the radar to start back building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know how his mind works. I know which way both of you lean. I lean on the weenie side. I assume Ray just doesn't want to set himself up for disappointment. Understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I know which way both of you lean. I lean on the weenie side. I assume Ray just doesn't want to set himself up for disappointment. Understandable. it was more than that, trends were for CCB to just barely graze. Now Euro confirms that. GFS not withstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: it was more than that, trends were for CCB to just barely graze. Now Euro confirms that. GFS not withstanding Just telling what it shows. Still gets ern areas after 6z. Could be nasy from like 9z-15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Very sharp cutoff for that CCB. As one might have guessed it trended slightly east with 7h. It also trimmed up the edge of the CCB. We'll see. It's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Modeling so far today pretty much shifting away or fringing from the CCB down in the NE areas, The Euro, cut back qpf as well over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just telling what it shows. Still gets ern areas after 6z. Could be nasy from like 9z-15z. Yeah important to note it still does fringe E MA. It's not a miss. Just not a nuclear solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Crazy the difference a few miles makes. Been downtown most of the morning with mostly snow, and the roomie in Eastie says barely any snow yet. Have a feeling BOX will bust with it's 12-18" for BOS. Feeling pretty confident for 6-12" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, but you know how its mind works. Sweet Ray, add in ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Ray , you going 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Just telling what it shows. Still gets ern areas after 6z. Could be nasy from like 9z-15z. Yeah it's still a pretty decent hit actually. It's just that it is slightly east of 00z which was a bit weaker than 12z yesterday. I think tomorrow morning is going to be nasty in E MA but I'd lean like 2-4" from CCB instead of another 6-8". Maybe Essex county can get a bit more. They seem to be in a good spot for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's still a pretty decent hit actually. It's just that it is slightly east of 00z which was a bit weaker than 12z yesterday. I think tomorrow morning is going to be nasty in E MA but I'd lean like 2-4" from CCB instead of another 6-8". Maybe Essex county can get a bit more. They seem to be in a good spot for it. That's what I am thinking. But darn...if only that were 50 miles SW...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's what I am thinking. But darn...if only that were 50 miles SW...lol. I guess we'll see. That's still a pretty dangerous spot for a deepening H5 low. Could be some surprises with this. It could also be one of those "lingerers" where steady snow lasts deeper into Monday afternoon than we think. Like steady half inch per hour stuff. Who knows though...nowcast it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sweet Ray, add in ratios Yeah, I think this worth mentioning. I don't think we'll see crazy 15:1 or better ratios anywhere but I can see a little better than 10:1 (like 11-12:1) as you go farther N and W from Boston. I said it earlier but the soundings look pretty good and there is decent lift in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Our secondary isn't even off the Delmarva/NJ yet. Just checking out meso analysis for some signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, BRSno said: Crazy the difference a few miles makes. Been downtown most of the morning with mostly snow, and the roomie in Eastie says barely any snow yet. Have a feeling BOX will bust with it's 12-18" for BOS. Feeling pretty confident for 6-12" though. Been all rain here the past few hours. BOS actually dropped to 34. Once this stuff moves in I will probably flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Modeling so far today pretty much shifting away or fringing from the CCB down in the NE areas, The Euro, cut back qpf as well over the region. Yea only 2-3 frogging feet you Mainiac lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It's close enough that now-casting is utterly necessary ... lest we exercise in neolithic incompetence .. Having said that, - if the CCB misses east that writing's been on the wall all along. Collectively, a few here and there gave just homage to that possibility during the preceding days. However, sometimes... it's easier to just get lost in the weeds of what looks like the bigger deal, "cherry picking" positive signs and then losing track of some objectivity in doing so - which then lends to being "disappointed," when reality blows through the room of card houses.. This system never set well with me (not that anyone asked)... The reason being is the general WNW to ESE vector of the total trough constructs.. .Not often that anyone gets a blizzard on that sort of trajectory - in fact, I can't even think of any off hand. Truthfully, I didn't even see this front side WAA thump today as being part of this back four days ago when this got abruptly louder in the guidance tools. At the time, I figured it was either going to be a late blooming clip-on the coast (maybe more if it detonated quicker), or a four day exercise in tease futility. But... so be it as the time got into the end game this day's activity elucidated in the guidance. Fine. We are lucky in a sense ... And if the CCB does evolve to include eastern zones, that's just a rarity playing out. As we said yesterday: the baseline trajectory is still west to east, and unless this thing actively stalls ...it becomes difficult to envision things reaching back west. This thing really needs to detonated with extreme rapidity in order to do so in time. And that sort of detail probably needs to be now-casted addtionally - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea only 2-3 frogging feet you Mainiac lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Been all rain here the past few hours. BOS actually dropped to 34. Once this stuff moves in I will probably flip. What's your call for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, BRSno said: What's your call for BOS? Right now I'll go 8-14" Low level temps are colder than modeled the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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