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Feb 7th Mixed Bag North of the Pike


HoarfrostHubb

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39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I told my wife yesterday to leave tonight (from Dover) rather than tomorrow, for business in NYC. 

Looks like a real mess around here tomorrow--winter storm warning criteria.

And I assume pretty much the same up here.  Glad there are some NNE folks in here because the SNE people are focusing on Thursday (understandably).  You could be in the sweetspot  for both events by end of day Thursday...perhaps someone on this board sees 12 from both combined, and you would be in the right spot.  BTW off topic but we might be moving to Dover for 9 months starting in April, while our house is being built up here.  I'll have to PM you at some point and ask about Dover.

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24 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

And I assume pretty much the same up here.  Glad there are some NNE folks in here because the SNE people are focusing on Thursday (understandably).  You could be in the sweetspot  for both events by end of day Thursday...perhaps someone on this board sees 12 from both combined, and you would be in the right spot.  BTW off topic but we might be moving to Dover for 9 months starting in April, while our house is being built up here.  I'll have to PM you at some point and ask about Dover.

It still looks wintery in my SNE location... nothing great   I think this is the 4th similar event this season  1-3" of mixed crap

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If QPF was higher tomorrow during the day and evening, this would be a pretty concerning icing setup over parts of interior SNE/CNE...but the precip staying relatively light should be a mitigating factor to too much accretion. Still, could be quite nasty for like 12+ hours...might be isolated pockets that get >3/8" accretion.

I agree. I'm worried about some light rain moving in right at 12z too... might introduce problems across a good chunk of CT.

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9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I agree. I'm worried about some light rain moving in right at 12z too... might introduce problems across a good chunk of CT.

Euro is pretty stubborn with the CAD through 06z....so there could be a pretty prolonged period of icing. Again, the QPF is probably the mitigating factor here. It's mostly light precip. It shows the northern half of CT below freezing at 12z...then it jumps it north into ORH county at 18z, but that diurnal variable in the model is often overdone on a CAD setup...wouldn't be surprised if a lot of areas are holding tough below 32F all day and all evening.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is pretty stubborn with the CAD through 06z....so there could be a pretty prolonged period of icing. Again, the QPF is probably the mitigating factor here. It's mostly light precip. It shows the northern half of CT below freezing at 12z...then it jumps it north into ORH county at 18z, but that diurnal variable in the model is often overdone on a CAD setup...wouldn't be surprised if a lot of areas are holding tough below 32F all day and all evening.

Yeah and there's definitely a colder jump on today's run compared to last night. We'll see.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I just messed around with some top-down tools and adjusted what we had in there. I may have actually knocked it down another few tenths.

Every time it comes out it is less and less.  I just want to get enough to cover the sleet shell and be able to walk in the woods again without falling.  IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK!!!???

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Every time it comes out it is less and less.  I just want to get enough to cover the sleet shell and be able to walk in the woods again without falling.  IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK!!!???

I think some of it is QPF and the rest is warmth aloft. There is going to be a couple hour thump just ahead of the warm air aloft, and that's probably when the bulk of snow falls.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think some of it is QPF and the rest is warmth aloft. There is going to be a couple hour thump just ahead of the warm air aloft, and that's probably when the bulk of snow falls.

sometimes with waa we can get a healthy band with good snow growth.  Hopefully somebody, particularly me, gets that band.

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RGEM has quite the heavy snow thump north of the pike tomorrow morning. Esp NE MA. It's been on the colder side of guidance so I wouldn't get hopes up but it's been stubborn. It is colder than the last two runs even. 

Still something to watch. 

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