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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall
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34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man you're going off the deep end...come back don't jump off the Barre Granite Quarry! 

I get the frustration but there are like 75 days left this season where climatology says it can snow and snow big.

Just rode by the quarries on my sled, the snow would cushion his fall. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 2/4/2017 at 3:18 PM, eyewall said:

Since the pattern isn't offering much hope and it is likely the 2nd consecutive failed winter for the Champlain and Hudson Valleys and Southern New England has been skunked, it is time to regretfully pull the trigger on this thread. 

Hudson Valley had a decent year, much much much better than last!

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38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty optimistic for next year...very early conjecture is for declining solar influence due to approaching solar min, easterly QBO, and warm-neutral to weak el nino ENSO.

Not a bad start...

Nah, 2018/2019 will be the winter to end all winters.  I'm looking forward to that period most of all.

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty optimistic for next year...very early conjecture is for declining solar influence due to approaching solar min, easterly QBO, and warm-neutral to weak el nino ENSO.

Not a bad start...

I'm thinking Nino may get stronger than that. Region 1-2 are on fire and I wonder if we see a potent Nino. I know it's early...but just talking out loud here.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 3/24/2017 at 10:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks more like weak-moderate el nino now........I'll bet against another strong so soon.

If we can avoid this being east based, I'll go pretty hefty on snowfall.

I just hope the -qbo can pull through this year. I doubt it could can be in its westerly phase for 3 winters in a row.

In terms of solar, Just this month the sun reported no sunspots for 2 weeks straight. Maybe starting to bottom out? In tandem with a -qbo would be great.

I also think if we get a modoki weak to moderate El Niño, next winter will be very special in terms of snowfall.

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On 2/4/2017 at 3:18 PM, eyewall said:

Since the pattern isn't offering much hope and it is likely the 2nd consecutive failed winter for the Champlain and Hudson Valleys and Southern New England has been skunked, it is time to regretfully pull the trigger on this thread. 

Lol phail mcphail

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5 hours ago, eyewall said:

 


And the highest amount of snow I have ever seen in a single event.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

 

I'd like to see whatever we have coming up for later this week trend in the direction of giving BTV the 7" or so they need to hit 100" for the season. 

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Weak to moderate el nino.....though it has been trending stronger.

Negative QBO

Near solar minimum.

I like next winter better than I did this season...which has ended up pretty close to normal, as anticipated. Main caveats for 2017-2018 being strength and configuration of el nino, as it is trending stronger on guidance and has been focused in region 1.2 at this very early juncture.

I am hedging against a strong event, though. 

ENSO.gif

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Mike V also is not on the moderate or strong nino train. Him and I had a good discussion about that. He brings up some decent points about the behavior of that EPAC warm pool (which appears to been due to MJO wave passage) and other metrics that suggest pumping the brakes on a potent Nino. It's early and the error bars this time of year are high in the Spring..but just saying.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mike V also is not on the moderate or strong nino train. Him and I had a good discussion about that. He brings up some decent points about the behavior of that EPAC warm pool (which appears to been due to MJO wave passage) and other metrics that suggest pumping the brakes on a potent Nino. It's early and the error bars this time of year are high in the Spring..but just saying.

We'll take a weak Nino...about as close to a lock for cold and snow in our area as you can get using only ENSO metrics.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎4‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 1:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

Mike V also is not on the moderate or strong nino train. Him and I had a good discussion about that. He brings up some decent points about the behavior of that EPAC warm pool (which appears to been due to MJO wave passage) and other metrics that suggest pumping the brakes on a potent Nino. It's early and the error bars this time of year are high in the Spring..but just saying.

I'm pretty confident, Scott....I like next season given ENSO considerations, and potentially the year after with solar minimum fast encroaching.

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