Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Christmas 2010 was white I believe even here on Cape Cod until the Boxing Day storm brought rain here

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

This winter is being preceded by an enso neutral summer and fall months during hurricane season which preceded the winter of 2005-2006 and snowfall was hard to come by here on Cape Cod, MA but we did receive a microburst event.  The waters off the coast will be extremely high above normal as until a major storm wipes out those temperatures, we could see an explosive nor'easter season

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This winter is being preceded by an enso neutral summer and fall months during hurricane season which preceded the winter of 2005-2006 and snowfall was hard to come by here on Cape Cod, MA but we did receive a microburst event.  The waters off the coast will be extremely high above normal as until a major storm wipes out those temperatures, we could see an explosive nor'easter season

I guess its possible that  the gulf stream may play a role...we'll have to watch that...

[Hoth]

For what it's worth (probably very little) Farmers' Almanac going cold and snowy for NE this winter. Squirrel tail girth, bee nest height, and early acorn falls were telling.

[CapturedNature]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

For what it's worth (probably very little) Farmers' Almanac going cold and snowy for NE this winter. Squirrel tail girth, bee nest height, and early acorn falls were telling.

You're the second person to mention acorns today.  That combined with the early color showing up is telling...

[dendrite]

Soil temps are running a little below normal so maybe some of the weaker trees and swamp maples are getting an earlier start than their typical early starts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Hoth said:

For what it's worth (probably very little) Farmers' Almanac going cold and snowy for NE this winter. Squirrel tail girth, bee nest height, and early acorn falls were telling.

Just reading it over...sounds el ninoish to me.

[CoastalWx]

I would pretty much wipe my arse with the Farmer's Almanac...but that's just me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would pretty much wipe my arse with the Farmer's Almanac...but that's just me.

I view it more just to keep with tradition....nostalgia that beckon's back to when I used to covet it as a fledgling weenie. haha

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I view it more just to keep with tradition....nostalgia that beckon's back to when I used to covet it as a fledgling weenie. haha

You could almost see Ginxy sitting back around the tire fire...reading it from cover to cover.

[klw]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would pretty much wipe my arse with the Farmer's Almanac...but that's just me.

If you do, be careful about the staples.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This winter is being preceded by an enso neutral summer and fall months during hurricane season which preceded the winter of 2005-2006 and snowfall was hard to come by here on Cape Cod, MA but we did receive a microburst event.  The waters off the coast will be extremely high above normal as until a major storm wipes out those temperatures, we could see an explosive nor'easter season

Are you referring to the tropospheric fold event of December 2005 ? 
 

If so that wasn't a "microburst", per se.  

It was just that... a trop. fold, which has to do with entirely different mechanics and is spread out over much large scale than microbursting.  I'll leave it at that as the information is readily available for free on countless web-sources within just a couple few clicks of a mouse, and or swipes of filthy, bacteria ridden portable "douche"vices  

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You could almost see Ginxy sitting back around the tire fire...reading it from cover to cover.

Ginxy putting together his winter forecast years ago....

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ginxy putting together his winter forecast years ago....

 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Thanks Tip, I remember that was discussed.  It will be interesting given the warmth of the ocean to the south and if is sustains itself through the winter period for SNE to cash in on negatively tilted troughs exiting the NJ coastline.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'd love to take in a lunch with the modelers of those products and engage in some candid exchanges as to what physical parameterizations ... along with any assumptions vs sciences ... etc, etc, that "art" the product(s) into existence. 

What you folks describes there sounds strikingly similar to just taking persistence and moving it forward into a steeper hemispheric gradient of winter.   Quasi favorable Pacific combined with geophysical-natural tendency to bulge heights in the west because of continental terrain forcing, with subsequent negative node near the OV/S-SE Canada ...mmm sound familiar?  It butt-banged warm weather enthusiasts out of goodly amount of this summer, too.  

Who knows -

[uncle W]

the ole Farmers almanac had its hits and misses over the years...the 1966-67 edition said it would be an old fashion winter...it was right on...the 1995-96 edition had it mild with less snow than average but did have above normal precipitation along the coast...

[ORH_wxman]

A lot of subsurface cooling in the past couple of weeks in the tropical PAC. Chances for a weak La Nina are definitely increasing.

[sebastiaan1973]

in the past I wrote about http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonInsert existing attachmental-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean but there was no reaction. So perhaps nobody is interested. Time will tell  

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

in the past I wrote about http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonInsert existing attachmental-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean but there was no reaction. So perhaps nobody is interested. Time will tell  

I've never seen that model before...but that would be a pretty brutal pattern for winter lovers in the northeast.

[Typhoon Tip]

Is it just me (probably so...)  or does anyone else privately hate "wink" emoji's ? 

I find them to be wanting ... also, patronizingly superior much of the time. 

I don't believe they were originally designed for how they are used the majority of times.  If one is in a chat-group and they say something patently absurd to gain a giggle or two, okay. Throw a wink at the end ... Or, one is flirting with a girl of their GF ...BF if they lean that way. Fine.  The object of that course gets a wink.  

Instead, the use of them is bathed in some sort of connotation as though to think the rest of us must be missing the boat one what the winker actually knows -

   

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've never seen that model before...but that would be a pretty brutal pattern for winter lovers in the northeast.

maybe that's what he/she's after  ...  

(see?  isn't that f'ing off the charts annoying - )

[Damage In Tolland]

Considering the way the summer has gone, that's exactly will happen this winter. 

[CoastalWx]

Well that settles it then.

[Paragon]

On 7/12/2017 at 2:31 PM, ORH_wxman said:

One piece of info from 1717 does make me pretty sure they had some amazing depths...the Puritans weren't going to church on Sundays for 2 weeks during that. You know it was bad if the Puritans said "ah screw it" for church.

Will, that was close to the Little Ice Age so they must've had some amazing winters back then.  Even in the 1800s I found a couple of winters referenced in the Pennsylvania Weather Book where New York City and Philadelphia both recorded 100" of snow.

 

[Isotherm]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

the ole Farmers almanac had its hits and misses over the years...the 1966-67 edition said it would be an old fashion winter...it was right on...the 1995-96 edition had it mild with less snow than average but did have above normal precipitation along the coast...

The old farmers almanac looks like it went furnace, with a warm and wet look. I will post the maps later. Last winter it went mild for most of the country and snowy in the interior Northeast. I've been checking the OFA forecasts since the early 2000s and have found they are much more accurate than the FA. Lets hope the FA is correct. I think the FA went cold last year too. Of course you don't see the OFA in the news headlines because it's a benign look.

[Paragon]

On 8/14/2017 at 1:46 PM, MetHerb said:

You're the second person to mention acorns today.  That combined with the early color showing up is telling...

low solar too.

[Paragon]

On 7/12/2017 at 2:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The Pequot War might be more suited for hurricane of 1635 discussion. Water up to thy knickers prevented good use of the yoke fortnight.

Will I read the pdf about that storm, and it seems like it could have been a borderline Cat 4?  I wonder what the water temps were like to sustain a beast like that?!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Will I read the pdf about that storm, and it seems like it could have been a borderline Cat 4?  I wonder what the water temps were like to sustain a beast like that?!

It was probably moving really fast similar to 1938...though perhaps the gulf stream was a bit amped up that year and warmer than average...it can have a bit of variance from year to year which could help or hurt TCs.

 

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Will, that was close to the Little Ice Age so they must've had some amazing winters back then.  Even in the 1800s I found a couple of winters referenced in the Pennsylvania Weather Book where New York City and Philadelphia both recorded 100" of snow.

 

Yeah it wouldn't surprise me. I wish we had some better records from the LIA winters. What we do know though is that they did tend to be drier than what we saw in the 20th and 21st centuries....but also colder. There were some epic frigid nor' easters...like Jan 1857.

[Paragon]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was probably moving really fast similar to 1938...though perhaps the gulf stream was a bit amped up that year and warmer than average...it can have a bit of variance from year to year which could help or hurt TCs.

 

Yeah it wouldn't surprise me. I wish we had some better records from the LIA winters. What we do know though is that they did tend to be drier than what we saw in the 20th and 21st centuries....but also colder. There were some epic frigid nor' easters...like Jan 1857.

That was the two to three footer I read about with temps near 0! I wonder how that happened?

Speaking about really snowy winters, looking at the "unofficial records" there was a winter like 2 years before Central Park began keeping snowfall records that supposedly had 90" of snow.  That was the last blockbuster winter of the 1800s.  Pity that it didn't happen two years later.