Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man that may have worked! All of a sudden better flakes falling. Lol that was a classic, not as good as 13 but still a classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The science behind the process certainly should be a priority for DOT. I cringe at the not my job attitude. Public Safety and intergovernmental diagnosis of even light freezing drizzle is extremely important. It's not always the super bowl and how many touchdowns you get. I and many others have seen the finger pointing by State and Federal agencies. Somebody needs to step up and identify when critical events are likely. Extra crews, more chemicals, more pretreatment based on the science. The simpleton oh it's the guy going 60s fault doesn't always work. A combination of events , very cold surfaces, quick accumulation and time of day. The untreated roads today were like grease immediately. There is a huge difference between variable light snow at 31 degrees and quickly accumulating light snow at 25 after a night in the teens. I was pleased to see the SPS yesterday by Mt Holly. Very specific and toned out. Let's maybe change the focus from how many inches to impact based forecasts. It's over due The impacts were communicated in the AFD. The met community cannot wipe everyone's ass. There has to be a responsibility from the municipalities to drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3" here and light snow continues despite what radar shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3.5" and counting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 Around 3.5". Still steady light snows falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Model QPF definitely plays a roll, as much as some hate it. Even in the favorable areas it's mostly ratios that do it (say mid level magic stuff)...model QPF is usually a good place to start as much as traditionalist mets hate it. You just have to figure out the ratios from model QPF and you'll do quite well forecasting. Meh. Paltry QPF is usually a result of some other issue in the forecast. It's a symptom not the cause. Mid levels matter, but if we aren't saturated it doesn't matter how much lift you have. We just didn't have the best moisture available on the north side. Low QPF hinted at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Meh. Paltry QPF is usually a result of some other issue in the forecast. It's a symptom not the cause. Mid levels matter, but if we aren't saturated it doesn't matter how much lift you have. We just didn't have the best moisture available on the north side. Low QPF hinted at that. This is why you have to take a lot of the models into consideration. NAM was definitely on the weenie side of guidance. I think the RGEM picked up on the southern impact of this looking at last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The science behind the process certainly should be a priority for DOT. I cringe at the not my job attitude. Public Safety and intergovernmental diagnosis of even light freezing drizzle is extremely important. It's not always the super bowl and how many touchdowns you get. I and many others have seen the finger pointing by State and Federal agencies. Somebody needs to step up and identify when critical events are likely. Extra crews, more chemicals, more pretreatment based on the science. The simpleton oh it's the guy going 60s fault doesn't always work. A combination of events , very cold surfaces, quick accumulation and time of day. The untreated roads today were like grease immediately. There is a huge difference between variable light snow at 31 degrees and quickly accumulating light snow at 25 after a night in the teens. I was pleased to see the SPS yesterday by Mt Holly. Very specific and toned out. Let's maybe change the focus from how many inches to impact based forecasts. It's over due I'm not finger pointing. I literally can't tell DOT what to do. I can just forecast the weather. DOTs have private contracts and I can't offer specialized forecasts that could take away from a private company's profit. But high-impact, sub advisory (HISA) events are a big deal. That is what SPSs are for. I just don't think people take them seriously. I'm no idiot, I know 1" of snow in ASH is enough to create big impacts. So we do the best we can do to get that word out. But we fight it too, people I'm my office don't consider anything to be that big of a deal. "We can handle it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The impacts were communicated in the AFD. The met community cannot wipe everyone's ass. There has to be a responsibility from the municipalities to drivers. Yup. The DOT in CT and some towns use private consulting mets and services. They're not reading an AFD or a SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Yup. The DOT in CT and some towns use private consulting mets and services. They're not reading an AFD or a SPS. Even in my line of work, you can communicate the forecast to the client, but it's still a CF because they simply did not think it would be as bad..or improper planning. We are definitely trying to help them out, but first thing is first...you need to use the time get the forecast right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm not finger pointing. I literally can't tell DOT what to do. I can just forecast the weather. DOTs have private contracts and I can't offer specialized forecasts that could take away from a private company's profit. But high-impact, sub advisory (HISA) events are a big deal. That is what SPSs are for. I just don't think people take them seriously. I'm no idiot, I know 1" of snow in ASH is enough to create big impacts. So we do the best we can do to get that word out. But we fight it too, people I'm my office don't consider anything to be that big of a deal. "We can handle it" I don't know why the advisory criteria isn't something like any accumulation of snow/ice on roads. For example the first 1/4 inch of snow lead to dozens of accidents across the state with 4 major highways shut down due to accidents. Meanwhile a flood advisory means a giant puddle with virtually 0 impact and a wind advisory knocks down a few branches. That said, I'm not sure many at home or even many decision makers in public works or DOT crews would do anything differently if there was or wasn't an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The impacts were communicated in the AFD. The met community cannot wipe everyone's ass. There has to be a responsibility from the municipalities to drivers. It's time for the buck passing to stop. I really would like a toned out alert and some DOT ones too. Let's get the public used to Impact texts for critical small events. Our government is paid to protect and we expect that to include intergovernmental cooperation and notification. Communicating through an AFD ain't cutting it. I spent the better part of the morning explaining why we should release staff early. The typical response was oh it's just a little snow, I am very happy I stuck to my guns and thoroughly explained why timing was everything. My boss traveled 95 south a half hour before it was locked down. He texted me to say thank you. I missed OKX mentioning impacts in their AFD. There is a disconnect between DOT and NWS. I can't stand hearing the we were surprised how slick it got. Is this personal, damn straight. OKX completely missed an obvious Freezing drizzle setup that almost killed my wife. NYC DOT reported to the media they had no idea it was coming. And belive me it wasnt some idiot going 65 on bad roads that caused that. It was a lady changing lanes who never saw the ice that sent her spinning. Ryan knew it and was all over it that morning. Point being let's put more emphasis on the little high impact events . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Even in my line of work, you can communicate the forecast to the client, but it's still a CF because they simply did not think it would be as bad..or improper planning. We are definitely trying to help them out, but first thing is first...you need to use the time get the forecast right. Yeah I'm not sure why people expect the NWS to provide specific services to every single client. DOTs need private services to provide super specific information... just like tons of school districts around here use private forecasters for specific DSS information. But... we're also not as good as people think. An hour or two bust with arrival or departure of a storm, pinning down mesoscale bands, and communicating uncertainty is really freaking hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I don't know why the advisory criteria isn't something like any accumulation of snow/ice on roads. For example the first 1/4 inch of snow lead to dozens of accidents across the state with 4 major highways shut down due to accidents. Meanwhile a flood advisory means a giant puddle with virtually 0 impact and a wind advisory knocks down a few branches. That said, I'm not sure many at home or even many decision makers in public works or DOT crews would do anything differently if there was or wasn't an advisory. What an epic waste of money to pay some out of state weather company to provide a service we already pay for. Geezus how dumb is CT, oh wait I know that answer and it was shown again today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What an epic waste of money to pay some out of state weather company to provide a service we already pay for. Geezus how dumb is CT, oh wait I know that answer and it was shown again today Really? I think it's actually a great use of money - it doesn't even cost that much all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah I'm not sure why people expect the NWS to provide specific services to every single client. DOTs need private services to provide super specific information... just like tons of school districts around here use private forecasters for specific DSS information. But... we're also not as good as people think. An hour or two bust with arrival or departure of a storm, pinning down mesoscale bands, and communicating uncertainty is really freaking hard. DOT needs a new company, ever noticed how many people post and complain about CT roads when traveling through. It's a running joke. I watched them pretreat before a 40 degree rain last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah I'm not sure why people expect the NWS to provide specific services to every single client. DOTs need private services to provide super specific information... just like tons of school districts around here use private forecasters for specific DSS information. But... we're also not as good as people think. An hour or two bust with arrival or departure of a storm, pinning down mesoscale bands, and communicating uncertainty is really freaking hard. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Really? I think it's actually a great use of money - it doesn't even cost that much all things considered. You get what you pay for in this state. Sorry but the great majority of people's opinion of CT is not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: DOT needs a new company, ever noticed how many people post and complain about CT roads when traveling through. It's a running joke. I watched them pretreat before a 40 degree rain last week. It might not be the weather company. They could just have poor planning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You get what you pay for in this state. Sorry but the great majority of people's opinion of CT is not great I think they do a nice job. They have about half the number as plows per mile of road as Massachusetts does I believe and have a different strategy for plowing. If we get a couple inches of snow in a highly urbanized state the highways will suck. It is what it is. Also their firm - WeatherWorks does a nice job from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: DOT needs a new company, ever noticed how many people post and complain about CT roads when traveling through. It's a running joke. I watched them pretreat before a 40 degree rain last week. I'm surpised, does CT DOT still pretreat with the liquid solution that left the white lines on roads and bridges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 This stuff has been litigated, the NWS can't provide specialized forecasts. We can only talk about what's already publicly available from us. We can get in serious trouble (as we almost did when Maine DOT dropped their private contract). And DOT is the weird one, since they're government but also have private contracts. It's the one government entity we can't do a specialized forecast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Modfan said: I'm surpised, does CT DOT still pretreat with the liquid solution that left the white lines on roads and bridges? Yes they do, at least here in Northern Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think they do a nice job. They have about half the number as plows per mile of road as Massachusetts does I believe and have a different strategy for plowing. If we get a couple inches of snow in a highly urbanized state the highways will suck. It is what it is. Also their firm - WeatherWorks does a nice job from what I've seen. Bloat, mismanagement, cronyism. Why not use that money and provide funding for dedicated NWS staff whose only duties are DOT. But I am and have been fighting a bureaucracy that serves itself rather than the people who pay them, but I digress. Will say your team is an example for others to get the word out and is much appreciated. I always recommend you guys. Hate to say it but our local OKX office has dropped the ball too much to really point people to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Modfan said: I'm surpised, does CT DOT still pretreat with the liquid solution that left the white lines on roads and bridges? Only on bridges today and it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Modfan said: I'm surpised, does CT DOT still pretreat with the liquid solution that left the white lines on roads and bridges? Yup before this storm and before the last sleet storm i was actually near a DOT truck that was doing that on RT-15 (Wilbur Cross Pkwy). Before both of these two storms you could see those lines all up and down the highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Flurries now. 3.3" should do it for the final in North Haven, although another spotter in the SE side will likely come in with over 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: This event blows dead rats. This winter on balance to date is among the all time duds. And I had the worst forecast of anyone. I can't wait till it's warm enough to not even think about this abortion. Perfectly said. Jay, 1-3", sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We lost you and Ray in the same day. Dropping like flies You have like 12"more than I do, so you can't really compare perspectives....this has been like a mini 2010 with a snow hole in these parts. Snow growth is good,but....when snow is not sticking to the pavement on a 25* night in January, the event sucks it- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Still better than 01-02 and 11-12, well maybe right around there with 11-12 at least that had a historic October snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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