February 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Cfa]

36 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Some of those areas radiate very well though.  For example, here in SW Nassau County my low temps are usually several degrees colder than LGA and on those radiating nights JFK is colder than NYC and LGA also.  But I still don't recall as many yearly mins in the single digits as I do the teens.  It wasn't like this back in the 80s and 90s when we clearly had way more lows in the single digits than we had in the teens.

They do radiate a bit better at times, being mostly suburban, but the opposite often occurs where the ocean air keeps it noticeably milder than the city and the rest of the island.

I don't think it matters though during those windy arctic outbreaks that bring us our coldest temps of the year, the UHI is effectively null and void during those events, these are the average lowest temps since 2000:

MTP: 10

LGA: 10

JFK: 9

NYC: 8

EWR: 8

TEB: 7

FRG: 7

ISP: 5

BDR: 5

HPN: 4

FOK: -5

 

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Thanks for this, where can I find the original map? I want to check out some other locations.

You can actually find the maps on the USDA site. 

This link is for the normal map.  The interactive tab is there if you need it.

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

They do radiate a bit better at times, being mostly suburban, but the opposite often occurs where the ocean air keeps it noticeably milder than the city and the rest of the island.

I don't think it matters though during those windy arctic outbreaks that bring us our coldest temps of the year, the UHI is effectively null and void during those events, these are the average lowest temps since 2000:

MTP: 10

LGA: 10

JFK: 9

NYC: 8

EWR: 8

TEB: 7

FRG: 7

ISP: 5

BDR: 5

HPN: 4

FOK: -5

 

Thanks man, can you look up a couple more sites for me (I want to compare them to FOK since they also radiate really well.)  MVY Marthas Vineyard and MGX Toms River.  Thanks!

 

[Paragon]

43 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

You can actually find the maps on the USDA site. 

This link is for the normal map.  The interactive tab is there if you need it.

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/

Thanks!  I wanted to see the area around Mt. Pocono MPO!  

[JerseyWx]

13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks!  I wanted to see the area around Mt. Pocono MPO!  

No problem man, it's a great source.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I'm starting to wonder how many more years it'll be before cold hardy palm trees can survive here. 

My neighbor has a Japanese Banana in his garden.

http://plants.hicksnurseries.com/12170001/Plant/19606/Japanese_Banana

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My neighbor has a Japanese Banana in his garden.

http://plants.hicksnurseries.com/12170001/Plant/19606/Japanese_Banana

They grow like rocket ships, but still are perennial here. We have a Long long way to go before any true tropicals can grow here. Real bananas are adios below 32. 

[donsutherland1]

Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.2°. That it 0.3° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.5°.

Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.1°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record.

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through today, February has a mean temperature of 41.2°. That it 0.3° above the current record monthly figure of 40.9°, which was established in 2012. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, the monthly average will come out near 41.5°.

Winter 2016-17 has a mean temperature of 39.1°. That ranks the current winter as the 7th warmest on record. If the MOS is reasonably accurate, Winter 2016-17 will finish with a mean temperature of 39.2°, which would tie it with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest on record.

You've got 53/35 for today?

[pazzo83]

It looks like Feb will have a higher monthly max min (58) than Nov (57).  That's weird.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

You've got 53/35 for today?

Yes. The numbers remained the same with the 54 degree high.

[Paragon]

How close are we to having the lowest number of 32 degree or lower lows?

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

How close are we to having the lowest number of 32 degree or lower lows?

We will finish tied with winter 2001-02 for 3rd lowest figure with 35 such days. The record is 32 from winter 1997-98. 2011-12 had 33.

[bluewave]

3rd warmest winter on record for LGA and the 5th 40 degree or warmer winter since 97-98. The million dollar question is how much warmer will it have to get to reverse the increasing trend in snowfall?

 

 

 

[weathermedic]

[Brian5671]

another day another torch here---55 degrees under clear skies....

[pazzo83]

Um

 

[psv88]

59 out here in the tropics.

[Fantom X]

On Mon Feb 27 2017 at 1:10 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

They already do. Windmill palms a good example. They are from the Himalayas and can handle cold to around zero. There is new construction Mediterranean style mansion up in great neck that has at least a dozen on the front yard. 

I planted a windmill in 2010 but it succumbed to the cold of Feb 2015

[donsutherland1]

At 1 pm, NYC had a high temperature of 58°. That brings the monthly average to 41.6° (old record: 40.9°, 2012). It also brings the winter average to 39.2°, which ties winter 2016-17 with winter 1990-91 for the 6th warmest winter on record. NYC's final winter temperature could reach 39.3°, which would rank 6th warmest on record. The 5th warmest winter on record was 1997-98 with a mean temperature of 39.6°.

[uncle W]

top 30 warmest winters and snowfall...2016-17 ends up with above average snowfall for a warm winter and we could get a little more before it's over...

winter.....ave temp...min temp...30 day snow...total snow...4" snows or largest snow...

1879-80....38.5............7......................................22.7"

1889-90....37.9............7...............17.0"...............24.3"..........6.0".....6.0".....4.0"

1897-98....36.5............8.................8.9"...............21.1"..........5.0"

1905-06....36.7............7...............11.5"...............20.0"..........6.0".....6.5".....5.0"

1908-09....36.7............5...............11.4"...............20.3"..........5.1".....4.0"

1912-13....37.2..........11...............11.5"...............15.3"........11.4"

1918-19....36.6..........10.................2.7"................3.8"..........1.4"

1931-32....40.1..........15.................2.1"................5.3"...........2.0"

1932-33....37.8..........11...............15.4"...............27.0"..........7.2"...10.0"

1936-37....37.9..........13.................8.8"...............15.6"..........5.7"

1948-49....38.5..........10...............26.8"...............46.6"..........5.3"...16.0".....4.5".....4.6".....9.4"

1949-50....37.5............6.................8.9"...............13.8"..........3.8"

1951-52....37.0............8.................8.6"...............19.7"..........5.8".....4.0"

1952-53....38.1..........12.................7.5"...............15.1"..........4.5"

1953-54....37.4............7...............12.7"...............15.8"..........8.6"

1974-75....37.5..........15...............11.3"...............13.1"..........7.8"

1982-83....37.9..........12...............23.4"...............27.2"........17.6"

1990-91....39.2..........10...............15.6"...............24.9"..........7.2".....5.7".....8.9"

1991-92....37.2..........11.................9.4"...............12.6"..........6.2"

1994-95....37.1............6...............11.6"...............11.8"........10.8"

1996-97....37.8............4.................6.1"...............10.0"..........3.5"

1997-98....39.6..........14.................5.0".................5.5"..........5.0"

1998-99....38.7............9.................6.5"...............12.7"..........4.5"

2001-02....41.5..........19.................3.5".................3.5"..........3.0"

2005-06....37.3..........14...............28.9"...............40.0"..........5.8"...26.9"

2006-07....36.5............8.................7.8"...............12.4"..........5.5"

2011-12....40.5..........13..................4.5"................7.4"..........4.3"

2012-13....36.9..........11...............13.7"...............26.1"........11.4".....4.0"

2015-16....41.0...........-1...............31.9"...............32.8"........27.5"

2016-17....39.2..........14...............11.0"...............20.5"..........9.4"

.....................................................................................................

here is March...

1879-80....36.5.....8.0"

1889-90....35.6...17.0"....6.0"....4.0"

1897-98....45.6.....2.0"....2.5" in April...

1905-06....35.6...11.5"....6.5"....5.0"

1908-09....37.8.....4.3"....4.0"

1912-13....44.8.....0.2"

1918-19....43.3.....2.7"....1.3"....1.4"

1931-32....37.3.....0.6"

1932-33....38.4.....4.8"....2.6"

1936-37....36.5.....2.5"....1.8"

1948-49....42.9.....4.2"....3.8"

1949-50....36.4.....1.4"....1.9" in April...

1951-52....40.2.....7.4"....4.0"

1952-53....43.4.....0.9"

1953-54....41.6.....0.1"....0.3" in April...

1974-75....40.2.....0.3"

1982-83....44.0.......T......0.8" in April...

1990-91....44.6.....0.2"

1991-92....40.0.....9.4"....6.2"

1994-95....45.0.......T.....

1996-97....41.9.....1.7"

1997-98....45.4.....5.0"....5.0"

1998-99....42.5.....4.5"....4.5"

2001-02....44.1.......T.....

2005-06....43.1.....1.3"....0.1" in April...

2006-07....42.2.....6.0"....5.5"

2011-12....50.9.......0.....

2012-13....40.1.....7.3"....4.0"

2015-16....48.9.....0.4"

[nzucker]

Unc, awesome information as always. It looks to me as if quite a few of the warm/snowy winters featured a significant snowfall in March. As long as March isn't a ridiculous torch like 2012, we should have a chance as the NAO drops.

There is a threat for 1-2" from Friday's clipper, another possible storm Tuesday, and I think we get one more window in the March 10-15 period, perhaps as the Greenland block collapses.

[uncle W]

25 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Unc, awesome information as always. It looks to me as if quite a few of the warm/snowy winters featured a significant snowfall in March. As long as March isn't a ridiculous torch like 2012, we should have a chance as the NAO drops.

There is a threat for 1-2" from Friday's clipper, another possible storm Tuesday, and I think we get one more window in the March 10-15 period, perhaps as the Greenland block collapses.

48-49 was getting a snowstorm at this time and ended with 6-9" across the city...They had another 4" storm on 3/18...the last snowfall of that winter...

[donsutherland1]

Final Temperature Numbers for NYC:

February: 41.6° (warmest on record)

Winter 2016-17: 39.3° (6th warmest on record)

[weathermedic]

Dense fog rolled in here to Sheepshead Bay. Temp down to 50.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Final Temperature Numbers for NYC:

February: 41.6° (warmest on record)

Winter 2016-17: 39.3° (6th warmest on record)

I wonder how much warmer it could have gotten if February actually had 30 days, like a normal month does.  Tomorrow looks like a record breaker.

[bluewave]

This was another one of those years when the October pattern gave an early signal of how the winter would turn out. Notice the strong vortex off the PAC NW in October with the intense PAC JET and record precip along the West Coast. That pattern continued right through the winter. The mean ridge position continued in the East with the record warmth we just experienced.

The main twist on the October pattern occurred in the Arctic. There was record breaking blocking and warmth across the Arctic in October focused near the Kara and Scandinavia. A very strong polar vortex split this ridge for the winter with a strong piece near Scandinavia and the other near the Bering Sea. This ridge centered near Scandinavia was able to briefly build near the Kara in early February leading to our Blizzard and biggest snowfall of the entire winter. The second year in a row where the Kara saved the day for snowfall lovers. But the PV split was only transient. So we couldn't come close the near record KB block of last winter leading to the strong AO drop and historic blizzard. 

Fall into winter conditions near the Kara and Barents with the extreme warmth and sea ice negative departures have been playing more of a role in our forecasts.

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

On 2/28/2017 at 7:57 PM, Paragon said:

I wonder how much warmer it could have gotten if February actually had 30 days, like a normal month does.  Tomorrow looks like a record breaker.

Below are the three warmest anomalies for the 30-day period beginning February 1:

1.    42.6°, 2017
2.    41.1°, 1998
3.    40.9°, 1991

[uncle W]

I did some ruff math and from 2/15/17-3/2/17 the average temp was 48.2 for 16 days...the next five days will lower the average some...the 21 day period from 2/16/1976 to 3/7/1976 averaged 46.5 for 21 days...Feb. 76 had 29 days so I started 2017 from the 15th...late February 1976 could be warmer than 2017 from mid Feb. thru the first week in March...

[Paragon]

On 3/3/2017 at 11:33 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Below are the three warmest anomalies for the 30-day period beginning February 1:

1.    42.6°, 2017
2.    41.1°, 1998
3.    40.9°, 1991

Thanks, it looks like the warm period has temporarily come to a halt with the coldest night of the year!