UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, doncat said: I love all extreme weather and am looking forward to this storm...just been so damn busy haven't posted much. I also think there's plenty of people following, just not posting much... this has been a well modeled; as Rjay originally wrote, rain/wind/coastal monster for days now... nothing has really changed much for the coastal sections. However the sleet to the interior has been a constant changing/developing dynamic to track, and i just think that's where a lot of the discussion has gravitated to... obviously coastal flooding/erosion rain totals, and high wind are the absolute issue with this storm, and our interior problems won't bear much weight to what the coast is experiencing, I think the coastal/metro fate has been reasonably sealed in terms of ptype and intensity for a couple days... hope all stay safe tomorrow, unnecessary travel should really be avoided imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Surprised at no flood watches for the NYC area? I know it's been dry recently but there's potential for some pretty heavy rain plus the risk for coastal areas... Looks pretty spread out although some places could get 2" in less than 12 hours. I'm off tomorrow and am considering a drive to the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The severe outbreak down south is pretty impressive. 10+ killed in Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Surprised at no flood watches for the NYC area? I know it's been dry recently but there's potential for some pretty heavy rain plus the risk for coastal areas... Some of the local rivers around here are forecasted to approach action stage which is basically very minor river flooding. Some of the lowest lying areas could see some water, but for the most part you're going to need more than 2-3" of rain for significant flooding given the current soil moisture, reservoir level and lack of any snowpack. All those along with duration and intensity of the rain play into it. Once you start getting above the 3.5-4" threshold, then soil moisture content and reservoir level have much less importance. Coastal flooding is an entirely different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 51 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Surprised more Long Island posters arent actively discussing this... could be extreme for areas like Suffolk This is a winter storm and snow-centered board and driving rain with strong wind isn't fun for many people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I also think there's plenty of people following, just not posting much... this has been a well modeled; as Rjay originally wrote, rain/wind/coastal monster for days now... nothing has really changed much for the coastal sections. However the sleet to the interior has been a constant changing/developing dynamic to track, and i just think that's where a lot of the discussion has gravitated to... obviously coastal flooding/erosion rain totals, and high wind are the absolute issue with this storm, and our interior problems won't bear much weight to what the coast is experiencing, I think the coastal/metro fate has been reasonably sealed in terms of ptype and intensity for a couple days... hope all stay safe tomorrow, unnecessary travel should really be avoided imo Exactly, the only issue down here for days has been how much wind mixes down to the surface. For a week it's been a pretty sure outcome here. I just hope the power doesn't go out and the coastal flooding isn't too bad. I'm not too worried about flooding where I am but the places that are vulnerable to it should definitely flood this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just wondering if this has potential to be like March 2010 event. That caught a lot of people off gaurd and anyone on the south shore will tell you that storm ranks up there with Irene/Sandy in terms of wind impact. 250k lost power if I remember correctly. Images like this from Wantagh were common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, tdp146 said: Just wondering if this has potential to be like March 2010 event. That caught a lot of people off gaurd and anyone on the south shore will tell you that storm ranks up there with Irene/Sandy in terms of wind impact. 250k lost power if I remember correctly. Images like this from Wantagh were common. The wind direction seems to make a big difference on the south shore. I expect the wind damage to be less than 2010 even if the winds end up being somewhat similar. We'll see. 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Exactly, the only issue down here for days has been how much wind mixes down to the surface. For a week it's been a pretty sure outcome here. I just hope the power doesn't go out and the coastal flooding isn't too bad. I'm not too worried about flooding where I am but the places that are vulnerable to it should definitely flood this time. 5 days ago I was very worried bc the system was modeled to cut to our west and these strong winds were going to be coming out of the SE. That would have def upped the flood risk across the entire south shore and the wind damage would have be March 2010-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Hurricane force wind warning for the south coast of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: The wind direction seems to make a big difference on the south shore. I expect the wind damage to be less than 2010 even if the winds end up being somewhat similar. We'll see. 5 days ago I was very worried bc the system was modeled to cut to our west and these strong winds were going to be coming out of the SE. That would have def upped the flood risk across the entire south shore and the wind damage would have be March 2010-esque. It'll be rough down here tomorrow but I'm not expecting another Mar 2010. The winds being from the ENE should help minimize the damage on the shore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Jason WX said: Hurricane force wind warning for the south coast of LI. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 * WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 If this holds true gusts to 80mph E winds 35 to 45 kt. Gusts up to 60 kt...increasing to 70 kt in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Surprised more Long Island posters arent actively discussing this... could be extreme for areas like Suffolk I am very concerned. Lots of trees by the highways out here. Will be a very dangerous commute. I am extremely worried. People shouldn't be traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: The severe outbreak down south is pretty impressive. 10+ killed in Georgia Pretty much expect the unexpected at this point. Yesterday at this time, SPC didn't even have a slight risk anywhere on the map for today. Now , they have huge swaths of Mod and High risk today. The type of severe weather dynamics for 'January' have never been seen before. The last one even closest was probably the 93 Superstorm. (and that was in March) Quote 93' storm - the hurricane-force winds produced high storm surges across north-western Florida which, in combination with scattered tornadoes, killed dozens of people. Several cells with lightning even for this region, cannot not be ruled out tomorrow. Dynamics are just that insane / off-the-charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Made a Facebook post warning my LI and NJ coast friends about the storm. Media is asleep at the wheel. I'm very worried about the commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Made a Facebook post warning my LI and NJ coast friends about the storm. Media is asleep at the wheel. I'm very worried about the commutes. The morning commute should be fine but the evening commute on the other hand will be brutal. Hopefully the businesses and schools will do the right thing and let employees and kids out early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: Just wondering if this has potential to be like March 2010 event. That caught a lot of people off gaurd and anyone on the south shore will tell you that storm ranks up there with Irene/Sandy in terms of wind impact. 250k lost power if I remember correctly. Images like this from Wantagh were common. That was a brutal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Media is asleep at the wheel. I'm very worried about the commutes. strongly agree. even when 11 died last night in Georgia from this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Bacon Strips said: strongly agree. even when 11 died last night in Georgia from this system. People aren't talking about this storm or seem concerned down here. This won't be devastating here but it will definitely be disruptive, and people will be asking what happened tomorrow night when there are trees coming down and there are 100k or more customers with no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Euro is colder at 12z for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 sustained winds of over 35 mph...over most of Florida already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Three photos from the March 2010 nor'easter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Three photos from the March 2010 nor'easter: Nice shots. I had many insane photos from March 2010 and from Sandy but they all got erased somehow . Still bothers me to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nice shots. I had many insane photos from March 2010 and from Sandy but they all got erased somehow . Still bothers me to this day. Thanks. I'm sorry to hear that. That happened to photos I had taken a number of years ago in Paris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Surge potential is definitely increasing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18Z Nam continues to be cold throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Flood Watch issued for my area. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam very close to flipping interior to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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