HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Check out the OES undercut from GYX radar http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=GYX-N0Q-1-48 Cool, I've never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoe456 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Cool, I've never seen that before. I can confirm here in Yarmouth, Maine (10 miles north of Portland) that this OES is having an impact in recent minutes. Light-steady snow with larger clumps mixing in. Picking up in the last 20 minutes or so. Hoping it holds for a little while at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I ended up with about an inch.....glad I backed off to 1-3" for the final call. I was right that we had enough cold here...but again, the dry mid level layers are just forecast assassins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I had an inch.....but the other side of town had nothing. Quick transition to nothing once you head s and e. I was not impressed with the EURO in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 About 2 inches on winter hill. Very scenic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Still coming down at the ski resort. Nice east slope enhancement. Will be close to 5" at 1,500ft now. Beautiful skiing. Dense but not wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had an inch.....but the other side of town had nothing. Quick transition to nothing once you head s and e. I was not impressed with the EURO in this event. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: About 2 inches on winter hill. Very scenic. Doesn't look much different from my place....temps. def. were not the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nope. NAM and GFS did pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euro temps were ok actually. The snow algorithms were off...but I have no idea how it's calculated. It's tough for me to compare euro to other models like GFS/NAM etc where I cannot dissect the atmosphere on the euro like I can with GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM and GFS did pretty well. Agreed RGEM threw up on itself, Euro really overdid it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro temps were ok actually. The snow algorithms were off...but I have no idea how it's calculated. It's tough for me to compare euro to other models like GFS/NAM etc where I cannot dissect the atmosphere on the euro like I can with GFS/NAM. QPF on Euro was too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 So FiT area got 4". Not bad. Dave just missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: QPF on Euro was too high I'd have to look. I didn't think it was that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 QPF was not the problem. The problem was the fractured precip shield. I mentioned this concern yesterday afternoon and how it would produce lower snowfall amounts of it didn't get organized overnight. ORH ended up with over 6 tenths of QPF. This was a QPF queen storm in reverse. The concerns were that the models were overdoing the snow because we didn't have a nice organized midlevel structure...the anti mid-level magic system. It wouldn't have been as big of a deal if the temps were in the mid 20s but in a marginal airmass it mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Somewhere between 2 and 3 inches at home. Nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro temps were ok actually. The snow algorithms were off...but I have no idea how it's calculated. It's tough for me to compare euro to other models like GFS/NAM etc where I cannot dissect the atmosphere on the euro like I can with GFS/NAM. Yes...that's all I meant. The snowfall output had me over 5" for a good stretch....I struggled to muster an inch of glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: QPF was not the problem. The problem was the fractured precip shield. I mentioned this concern yesterday afternoon and how it would produce lower snowfall amounts of it didn't get organized overnight. ORH ended up with over 6 tenths of QPF. This was a QPF queen storm in reverse. The concerns were that the models were overdoing the snow because we didn't have a nice organized midlevel structure...the anti mid-level magic system. It wouldn't have been as big of a deal if the temps were in the mid 20s but in a marginal airmass it mattered. Isn't there a correlation? I mean....."we got enough precip, but the problem was the precip wasn't organized enough"?? Unless you mean light fall rates over a protracted stretch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Agreed RGEM threw up on itself, Euro really overdid it This is why, as frustrated as we get with the NWP products, you can't just dismiss guidance as a general MO...sometimes they find a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Isn't there a correlation? I mean....."we got enough precip, but the problem was the precip wasn't organized enough"?? Unless you mean light fall rates over a protracted stretch? I cannot speak for areas further east but I'm pretty sure the light fall rates doomed this area. The few times it cranked we snowed otherwise just light rain most of the evening with sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I cannot speak for areas further east but I'm pretty sure the light fall rates doomed this area. The few times it cranked we snowed otherwise just light rain most of the evening with sleet mixed in. Same.....that must be what he means. Not doubting Will at all....just want to enhance our understanding moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 26F light snow vis about 2-3 miles. Snowfall 5.25" Snow started when it was 32F and temps were in the high 20's for most of the event. Bit of blowing and drifting. Too cold up here for the snow to stick on branches etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: This happened a few months ago when new server was brought online. Will this be resolved soon? I appreciate the efforts, but TT is way easier to use then mobile browser. Agreed. Browser is fine on my tablet, but on my phone the print is tiny when I use chrome. Any suggestions other than getting a new phone (in the works) or getting my 62 year old eyes to work like new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 26F light snow vis about 2-3 miles. Snowfall 5.25" Snow started when it was 32F and temps were in the high 20's for most of the event. Bit of blowing and drifting. Too cold up here for the snow to stick on branches etc. My guess is you had some wind? Like here at 1,500ft it was snow in the 20s, and no wind so there's 5" on every tree branch. We had great snow growth though which tends to stack up better on branches haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 It was the combo of rather meager dynamics, lift below the DGZ, and temps very borderline allowing some QPF wasted by liquid or low ratios. So basically, you clawed your way to .5" QPF or whatever, but it was a very inefficient process to grab snow. These are the things that snow algorithms will puke on themselves with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 26F light snow vis about 2-3 miles. Snowfall 5.25" Snow started when it was 32F and temps were in the high 20's for most of the event. Bit of blowing and drifting. Too cold up here for the snow to stick on branches etc. Nice win Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It was the combo of rather meager dynamics, lift below the DGZ, and temps very borderline allowing some QPF wasted by liquid or low ratios. So basically, you clawed your way to .5" QPF or whatever, but it was a very inefficient process to grab snow. These are the things that snow algorithms will puke on themselves with. Yes...to answer Ray's question, the mid-levels and precip shield being ugly didn't cause QPF to be lower, it caused the QPF to fall in an inefficient manner. Occasional bursts where it would snow and accumulate, and then lighter rates in between with cruddy snow growth. If we had good dendrites the whole time then we end up with 4-6" easy...but the disorganized nature of it caused some pretty inefficient snow production. Like I said before, if we had a colder profile, then the disorganized nature wouldn't have hurt as nearly as much. With 850 temps of -10C, if we had periods of lift lower in the atmosphere, then we still would have racked up decent snow....hell, today would probably be a nice snow globe with a cold profile with the onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Ended up with about 1.5" in Lowell, maybe a little more. It went over to drizzle this morning, but switched back over to very light low level snow since about 10. Temp rose briefly to 35 around 9, but has dropped back to 32.5/31. They did send the plows around last night which somewhat surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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